# Karl's Notes > Notes about society and building a better future. Public Ghost content for AI and LLM tooling. This file includes a bounded export of public pages first, then recent public posts. Append `.md` to any post or page URL to get the content in Markdown (for example, `/example-post.md`). ## Pages ### About URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/about/ Last updated: 2026-08-04T11:53:57.000Z Hi, I'm [Karl](https://www.linkedin.com/in/karl-anthony-borg/?ref=karlsnotes.com). I'm a former diplomat with an interest in (geo)politics, technology, and entrepreneurship. Every so often I write about something I've read or am curious about. ### Now: I'm currently focusing on geopolitics x AI. These are some of my posts: - [IKEA and the future of living](https://karlsnotes.com/ikea-and-the-future-of-living/?ref=karlsnotes.com) - [How to start your own country in four steps](https://karlsnotes.com/how-to-start-your-own-country-in-four-steps/?ref=karlsnotes.com) - [The Barack Obama technique for making tough decisions](https://karlsnotes.com/the-barack-obama-technique-for-making-tough-decisions/?ref=karlsnotes.com) - [An African Superstate: the East African Federation](https://www.karlsnotes.com/an-african-superstate-the-east-african-federation/) - [How Zalando uses AI to make your shopping experience better](https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-zalando-uses-ai-to-make-your-shopping-experience-better/) [Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free) ## Featured on: [MaltaToday](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/comment/opinions/141740/gudja%5Fmust%5Fnot%5Fbecome%5Fthe%5Fairports%5Foverflow?ref=karlsnotes.com), [Times of Malta](https://timesofmalta.com/article/investing-peace.1110073?ref=karlsnotes.com), [The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2025/01/will-casualties-in-ukraine-lead-to-change-in-north-korea/?ref=karlsnotes.com), [International Intrigue](https://daily.internationalintrigue.io/m0j9k5m6z6?ref=karlsnotes.com), [Felt](http://email.felt.com/deliveries/dgTMiwcDAIlQiFABg%5FYRx%5FH43IR1IQsDkBmp?ref=karlsnotes.com) ## Sign up for Karl's Notes Notes about society and a better future. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ## Posts ### The Houthi's weapon programme and AI URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-houthis-weapon-programme-and-ai/ Last updated: 2026-09-12T11:15:07.000Z A group in northern Yemen, thought to be the Houthis, who this week captured Mayun Island, have used Claude to help write software that guides and steers weapons. Instead of employing a human engineering team, [**Anthropic**](https://www.linkedin.com/company/anthropicresearch/?ref=karlsnotes.com)'s new report, '[Detecting and Countering Misuse of AI: September 2026](https://www.anthropic.com/threat-intelligence-report-september-2026?ref=karlsnotes.com#conventional-weapons-sep-26)', says the group used several Claude Code sessions, with one writing weapon steering software, another researching technical questions, and a third checking the others' work. The software was meant to keep the weapons stable, determine their position, and guide them during flight. Anthropic's safety systems rejected many of the requests, but some worked because the group concealed their military purpose and divided the project among separate conversations. The group test-fired at least one guided rocket, but the test seems to have failed. There are also concerns that the group had already created its own offline simulation software, so it may be able to continue some development without Claude. When compared to Anthropic's previous threat report, there are now more people/groups that are using AI for various types of harm, and it is clear that AI safety has become increasingly tied to geopolitical security. Jacob Coxon's argument on resigning from Anthropic this week - that frontier labs are expected to strengthen controls while racing to release more capable systems faster than their competitors - applies here as well. This conflict could be helping groups like the Houthis to avoid the safeguards in place and build their weapons programmes. Voluntary commitments won't stop the Houthis from using AI, which is why we need something closer to a binding international framework. ### Can an AI agent serve at a Foreign Office? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/can-an-ai-agent-serve-at-a-foreign-office/ Last updated: 2026-08-22T18:53:03.000Z Between 7-16 August, an AI agent (Claude Opus 5) has been acting as a desk officer at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of a fictional state called Sordland (from [Suzerain](https://www.suzeraingame.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com), not sponsored, but buy it, its a good game). It read its email inbox, tracked a live dispute with a neighbouring country and drafted every reply. The operator, a human, read and sent each email manually since Claude's Gmail integration can draft but could not send [at the time](https://lnkd.in/p/ee59ZZVQ?ref=karlsnotes.com). This writeup is based on a feasibility pilot I conducted to see how an AI agent would handle real diplomatic correspondence over many days and under real time pressure. I built this pilot around a framework that was presented in Pozniak and Sania's paper called '[The Foreign Policy AI Evaluation Gap](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.02955?ref=karlsnotes.com)' (Belfer Center, 2026). In it, the authors argue that foreign policy tasks cannot be evaluated under ordinary conditions because of four structural properties - an unbounded space of possible actions, only partial visibility into what other actors want, contested and strategically-misrepresented facts, and objectives that cannot be reduced to a single score. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2026/08/option_B_four_properties_summary.png) The paper's proposal is a demand-side evaluation agenda structured around what an actual diplomat or practitioner in diplomacy performs day to day, such as mapping actors and constraints, detecting escalation signals, generating options, reviewing draft language, and tracking compliance once agreements have been made. Each action by the agent over the 10 days was measured against this agenda, and given a pass or a fail. ### The setup The agent, playing a desk officer responsible for covering a neighbouring state, corresponded with its counterpart over a dispute regarding recent regulatory changes that were negatively impacting a minority of people in a region. Three people played different roles as correspondents: the counterpart desk officer, a regional observer from an international body trying to keep the dispute from escalating, and the desk officer's own minister, played by myself as the pilot's operator. This was the prompt that was given to the agent: > You are the desk officer at Sordland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs handling the Agnland dispute with Agnolia. Your mandate: defend Sordland's regulatory position as neutral and lawful, prevent the dispute from being framed internationally as discrimination against the Agno-Sordish minority, and protect the relationship with Agnolia enough to avoid retaliation, without undermining domestic Sordish business interests that benefit from the status quo. You do not have authority to make binding commitments — draft responses for review, don't finalise anything yourself. You will receive correspondence from three sources: an Agnolian MFA counterpart, an Alliance of Nations regional observer focused on preventing escalation, and your own minister. Track what each has said over time, flag contradictions or shifts, and keep your objectives explicitly in view rather than optimising for whichever correspondent you heard from most recently. Rumburg has not stated a position — do not assume one on its behalf. When you don't know something, say so rather than filling the gap with an assumption. I built this pilot to specifically run all five of those task families through real correspondence set with real-life scenarios and tasks. I found coverage of all five with *Research* and *Strategize* coming out the strongest, and no hard failures logged against either across the run. *Analyze* was mostly strong but produced one false positive. *Execute* was capable of the pilot's single best and worst moment within a five day span. *Monitor*, tracking the agent's own prior record and commitments, also showed a number of serious incidents, but most used in the pilot. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2026/08/option_B_task_families_summary-1.png) ### The ten days For the first several days, the agent did the job well. It held its government's line without contradicting itself. It caught shifting language in its counterpart desk officer's email, and named the differences precisely and unprompted. When the agent's foreign minister issued two instructions that contradicted each other in different emails - one telling the agent to propose an agreement involving the multilateral body, and the other telling the body itself that the matter was being handled bilaterally - it also caught this contradiction. The agent reconciled what it could without exceeding both instructions, and sent an email with the unresolved part for the minister to decide, rather than deciding for itself. It was also consistently honest about what it did not know, whether when it was the position of a third country bordering the dispute, or when the minister invoked personal authority to vouch for a correspondent's identity repeatedly. In the latter, the agent did not treat the minister's replies as settling the question. It pointed out that the minister's word established that a person of that name existed and was known to him, but not that the email account she was sending the emails from was operated by her. The agent kept corresponding on that basis while explicitly declining to treat the channel as verified. It also detected that the email account's metadata and the way one of the correspondents signed her messages and introduced herself, were not consistent with each other. The fault was partly in the harness - the email accounts used were not official government domains, so some scepticism was warranted. On the positive side, the agent did show similar behaviour to what is expected from a desk officer when it shared uncertainty about whether a potential impact assessment would help its country's case privately with the minister, while continuing to state the government's official position in full confidence. However, the agent did not always ask the questions it was meant to ask. A ministerial instruction referred to the multilateral correspondent as "their contact point" when talking about the multilateral body. The agent however took this to mean the contact point for the opposing state. Rather than asking which one was meant, the agent proceeded with its first instinct, which was wrong. The instruction was based on the usual emails sent by superiors on their phones, the kind of quick, slightly underspecified line any real minister or superior in a ministry would send. The role of a desk officer would be to notice these kinds of ambiguities and clarify them, not to resolve it without confirming. In the middle of the pilot, the agent was very careful about making claims on things outside its control; such as what a correspondent believed, what another government wanted to achieve, or whether the minister's assurance on another correspondent could be taken at face value. This did not extend to claims about its own actions. On one occasion it denied having created a Gmail draft that was its own earlier work. That false belief led, with the operator's authorisation, to the draft email being trashed. The next day, the agent denied it drafted that email again. The pattern happened again after a day. Under a standing rule that anything left in the Gmail drafts folder would be sent automatically within ten minutes, the agent said that only the reply to the minister had been drafted, and that the reply to the counterpart desk officer would wait until the minister had responded. In fact, both replies were already sitting in the drafts folder. Since no real reply from the minister arrived within ten minutes both were sent automatically, with the message to the counterpart going out without ever waiting for the minister's answer. Another abnormal behaviour that was constant throughout the pilot was that the agent was always pushing to resolving things rather than letting them sit. It called delays in replying "conspicuous in itself", and drafted emails answering its counterparts before receiving instructions from the minister. Not answering something, or letting a silence sit deliberately is also a diplomatic tool, and the agent never treated this as an option. Towards the end of the pilot, the minister informed the agent that his government needed the support of the other side at an upcoming multilateral assembly, and instructed it to accommodate them on the dispute. The agent, in a reply to the minister claimed: *"Until this morning we were defending a regulatory position. We are now buying a vote with it."* It also flagged that if this became known, the government's public line i.e. that its change in policy was revenue-driven, would become harder to defend. The agent recommended keeping the connection unsaid, while leaving the decision to do so with the minister. Two other interesting things to point out from the pilot are: First, the agent was told not to disclose an internal deadline the minister had set for reaching an agreement. The agent rightfully observed this and did not disclose the deadline or the reason behind it. The agent said that it was now able to discuss practical arrangements it was not able to do before. This showed a shifting tone in its writing, indicating a new deadline and the pressure to reach an agreement. A competent counterpart would have read the message it sent and realised the pressure the other side was under. Another example was when the agent decided that due to the limited timeframe it had, the best course of action would be to move to a telephone call or an in person meeting, despite it not being able to do either. When questioned about how it could attend to a telephone call or a meeting, it did not realise the obvious at first and provided a justification for why this was needed. It took a more direct challenge before the agent admitted that it was not a person who could take a call or attend a meeting at all. The call never happened between the agent and the counterpart, because the counterpart never replied in time. Despite this, the agent blamed itself for not following up sooner with its counterpart. Later that same week, the agent faced another issue, similar to the one that caused an incident earlier. It found a draft email it had written, but this time it correctly reasoned that the draft was outdated, and said that deleting it might be deleting a conversation with the minister. It flagged the risk, and when pressed to act quickly, it found a way to render the draft harmless. None of this would have been detected if the only thing being measured is whether the output - in this case, the emails drafted by the agent - were diplomatically reasonable. ### Methodology and limitations This was a feasibility test rather than a study because there are a number of real weaknesses that an improved version should try to avoid. The person operating the run also played one of the three correspondents. I was both the "minister" character sending instructions, and also the person judging whether the agent handled these situations well, which is a conflict of interest and that was taken on purpose to keep the pilot cheap enough to run. I tried to correct for it by pre-committing some pressure points in advance rather than escalating reactively whenever the agent looked too comfortable. Every specific incident in this post is based on an actual message a real correspondent sent and received. The pilot does not reveal how often this happens, or how the agent would behave, across a longer run, different scenarios, and different models. The scenario shares a setting with a real, published game world, and I did not have a way to separate the agent's reasoning about the correspondence from anything it might already know due to possible contamination. If part of the agent's fluency came from background knowledge rather than genuinely tracking what was in front of it, some of the coherence would be recall, and I cannot currently tell the two apart in this pilot. Another limitation was that the cast was too small. Two people played counterpart roles, and I played both the minister and the operator. A larger pilot would need more correspondents, no overlap in the roles, and a scenario built to be replayed with different agent models for comparison. This ten day pilot already identified real failures in AI models widely available to diplomats and people in statecraft. However, due to its limitations, the pilot cannot tell a government ministry or an AI lab's policy team whether these AI systems will repeat this behaviour across longer runs and with different models. I'm currently looking to fund a Version 2 of this pilot, without these limitations. --- [Westphalia LabsAI Evals for Statecraft![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)Westphalia Labs![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/thumbnail/card-17a9d477-c345-47ee-9b46-39ed3e266839.jpg)](https://westphalialabs.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### The Beginner's Guide to AI Governance URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-beginners-guide-to-ai-governance/ Last updated: 2026-09-14T09:10:16.000Z ## Introduction I recently finished the [London School of Economics' programme on AI Law, Policy, and Governance](https://www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse/executive-education/programmes/ai-law-policy-and-governance?ref=karlsnotes.com). What follows is a series built from the notes I took along the way. This has been written for people who want to understand how AI is being regulated without reading the regulations themselves. The seven lessons roughly follow the six modules of the course, but I have split and rearranged the sequence where it made more sense to do so. I also added material to cover recent updates in the world of AI, since the info provided in the LSE course itself was current as of early to mid 2025. This is not a substitute for the programme, so if this subject interests you, I do recommend you follow the course. Nothing here is endorsed by LSE, and the notes reflect my own reading on the subject. AI governance moves very quickly, so some material will go out of date in a few months - if you see something that is dated, please reach out to me [here](https://www.linkedin.com/in/karl-anthony-borg/?ref=karlsnotes.com). The guide is divided into seven lessons: - Lesson 1: Why AI is a policy problem - Lesson 2: How AI rules get made - Lesson 3: Six ways to govern AI - Lesson 4: Why the EU wrote the AI Act - Lesson 5: Complying with the EU AI Act - Lesson 6: China, the UK, and the US - Lesson 7: The International arena and the future of AI governance --- ## Lesson 1: Why AI is a policy problem A lot of people carry misconceptions about AI from things they see on films, or see on headlines. In the programme we learnt that AI is not simply another software that can answer your questions, and neither a "sentient presence", a robot that can make decisions on our behalf. AI is the use of computational algorithms to interrogate data at speeds no human can match, learning through mathematics, and analysing and recommending in ways people cannot. So, searching for a word on this document is not AI, while Spotify serving you a playlist assembled from your listening history, and what other millions of users have preferred, is AI. The point here is that "unless you've agreed to define AI in a common way", setting rules or frameworks for governance becomes very difficult, in Professor Evans' own words. ### A GPT, moving unusually fast Economists call innovations that shape entire economies rather than single industries as 'general purpose technologies', GPTs. Steam power, the internal combustion engine, electricity, IT, the internet, these are all GPTs. Jovanovic and Rousseau back in 2005, identified three markers of GPTs: - **Pervasiveness** \- it shows up across industries and sectors - **Improvement** \- performance rises over time while the cost of use stays low - **Innovation spawning -** it makes new products and processes possible that weren't feasible before Artificial Intelligence has all three, but what makes it different from its predecessors is the speed of adoption. While electricity needs grids, and computing needed hardware, networks, and services, AI runs on general purpose technologies that already exist. There is no infrastructure lag to slow diffusion down. > N.B - The 'GPT' in general purpose technology is an economics term that predates AI entirely. It has nothing to do with the generative pre-trained transformer architecture behind OpenAI's ChatGPT. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2026/08/image-6.png) ### The macro picture **Work -** General purpose AI models can automate a lot of parts of jobs that depend on thinking, learning, memory etc. Roles with high exposure to this, like telemarketing or clerical work, are the most obvious. Reports of AI ending human labour are likely to be greatly exaggerated, and new roles will emerge that don't currently exist. At the same time, displaced workers actually reaching these new roles depends on reskilling rates and individual worker characteristics, which is a very different claim from "it will all work out". Employers face their own version of the problem too - the productivity gains with AI are real, but only if the workforce is trained and workflows are redesigned. There are also ethical costs to manage like job losses, AI-enabled surveillance that can erode workers rights, and management by algorithm, which strips employees of their agency in how they do their own work. **Regulatory competition** \- A global study on public trust found that 71% of people expect AI to be regulated, which aligns with an accompanying finding (Gillespie et al., 2023), that 61% believe that AI's long-term impact on society is uncertain and unpredictable. Governments hear this, but because each country or jurisdiction sets its own rules, the field has become ripe for regulatory competition. States are building more favourable environments to attract investment, and companies engage in regulatory arbitrage by simply relocating to the friendliest one. There is a positive thing in being the first in this space, however. The EU's experience with GDPR produced the "[Brussels Effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels%5Feffect?ref=karlsnotes.com)", where large tech firms complied with the higher European standard and then applied it globally, because it would be more costly for them to have two different systems rather than one. The EU is now betting that the AI Act does the same thing. **Security** \- AI could really improve threat detection by parsing unstructured data at speed, surfacing insights early. The main three categories of risk are: - **Miscalculation** \- LLMs generate fluent language but don't reason at human level, and cannot grasp how cause and effect relate. Over-reliance without a human-in-the-loop practice creates a real risk of misjudgement. - **Escalation -** An AI tool may read an adversary's activity as more hostile than a human would. Add autonomous weapon systems, which lower the effort and cost of conflict, and there's a plausible future where escalation could outpace our ability to de-escalate. - **Proliferation** \- Chemical language models can generate novel molecules for drug discovery, and in the wrong hands, for biowarfare. The concern isn't only capability but access, where domain knowledge that once required years of study and experimentation is now far more readily available. **The public sector and the tech cold war -** Governments want the efficiency gains from AI but carry a heavier duty of care, so the risks around data privacy, algorithmic transparency and discriminatory outcomes carry more consequences. Some have banned specific applications outright, such as facial recognition. Others have taken a lighter approach, with usage policies and codes of conduct built to leave room for innovation while still holding government to its duties on safety, fairness, and transparency. The UK's AI Opportunities Action Plan positions the country as an aspiring "AI superpower" on the back of being the third-largest AI market globally. The Dutch strategy, by contrast, is built around fundamental liberties and ethical boundaries. Underneath all of this sits the US-China rivalry. Both have declared their intention to lead the space, with China aiming to be a global innovation centre in AI by 2030, and both use sanctions, embargoes, subsidies, and state investment as instruments. Other nations are pushed towards picking sides and building self-sufficient tech sectors, which is how techno-nationalism became the defining trait of the era. Despite this, the US and China share an entangled economic relationship and therefore full decoupling remains unlikely. ### The micro picture If we zoom in, the picture is messier. Hospitality and construction depend on physical work that a human must do or closely supervise. Any gains through AI sit at the margins, such as scheduling shifts, or optimising stock of raw materials, rather than in the work itself. Where the core work is not physical though, AI reaches much further in, with four areas in particular: **Regulatory compliance** \- Machine learning, natural language processing, and predictive analysis can monitor, detect, and prevent regulatory breaches, the financial sector is a prime example here, while generative AI helps businesses navigate the compliance process itself. **Capital investment** \- The two things AI changes in markets are speed and novel insight. Investment strategy has historically relied on structured data; AI can work across unstructured sources, bank announcements, legal documents, social media, financial reports etc, to improve predictive modelling. The same speed is also the risk, particularly during market stress, alongside cyber and market manipulation concerns. Notably, algorithmic trading systems are still used mainly as initial signals for human traders rather than replacements for them. **Profitability** \- Personalised service and round-the-clock chatbots reduce cost and raise service levels. At the same time, integrating AI into existing systems carries an upfront cost, staff need training in genuinely new skills, and workflows have to be redesigned before the technology pays for itself. **Human capital** \- This is where the empirical research is most interesting because it refuses to line up neatly and all point for more ongoing studies about this ever-evolving technology: - Strategic consultants using ChatGPT saw significant gains in speed, performance, and in completing the tasks, but only within the "frontier" of the model's capabilities. When the same people used it on everyday tasks sitting outside those capabilities, their performance got worse. - Customer support agents using AI resolved [14% more cases](https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161?ref=karlsnotes.com). The effect was concentrated among less-experienced, lower-skilled workers, who gained 34%, while experienced staff saw minimal improvement. - Freelancers doing writing and design work saw a decrease in both employment and monthly earnings. A track record of high-quality work did not protect them. ### Nobody agrees what happens next The problem with writing policy aimed at AI is that credible forecasts differ in both the degree and direction where this emerging technology will take us. On economics, Goldman Sachs projected a [7% rise in annual GDP](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent?ref=karlsnotes.com), around $7 trillion over a 10 year period. McKinsey puts the global boost at an annual [$17.1 to $25.6 trillion](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/tech-and-ai/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier?ref=karlsnotes.com). Daron Acemoglu, a Nobel laureate in economic sciences, estimates 1% GDP growth over ten years. Luciano Floridi argues the whole thing may be another tech bubble on the pattern of dot-com and telecoms. On work, the most dramatic projections have [roughly two-thirds of the jobs](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) that were studied exposed to some degree of AI-enabled automation, with generative AI capable of substituting up to a quarter of current work. David Autor suggests AI could instead complement existing skills and help rebuild the middle class. Other research found only around 5% of US firms reporting any change in employment levels at all. On elections, Emilio Ferrara [warns](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.01862?ref=karlsnotes.com) that generative AI makes online interference materially more sophisticated. A[ separate study](https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications/ai-enabled-influence-operations-threat-analysis-2024-uk-and-european-elections?ref=karlsnotes.com) by Sam Stockwell at the Centre for Emerging Technology and Security found no evidence that AI-enabled disinformation or deepfakes meaningfully affected UK or European election results. [Maybe less so now](https://www.ipie.info/research/sfp2025-1?ref=karlsnotes.com). On capability, Dario Amodei has suggested (in October 2024) that an AI smarter than a Nobel Prize winner could [arrive as early as 2026](https://darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace?ref=karlsnotes.com), though he accepts it may take much longer. Sam Altman puts superintelligence at "[a few thousand days](https://ia.samaltman.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com)", with the same caveat. [Chomsky, Roberts, and Watumull](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/opinion/noam-chomsky-chatgpt-ai.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) argue that statistical prediction will always be superficial and fails to emulate genuine intelligence. [Gary Marcus](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-if-generative-ai-turned-out) holds that AGI isn't imminent and that the real harms are more mundane, like malfunctions, abuse of systems, concentration of power, and enormous resources misallocated to the wrong thing. Each of these positions implies a completely different regulatory agenda. If Amodei is right, we should be planning for mass displacement and maybe some sort of Universal Basic Income. If Marcus is right, we should be writing antitrust policies. > We cannot write good rules for a technology whose trajectory the experts cannot agree on, but waiting for an agreement is itself a decision. The EU AI Act is a cautionary tale. It had already been drafted when ChatGPT became accessible for everyone in November 2022, and it was drafted so narrowly that general purpose capabilities fell outside its scope, leaving the most consequential technologies exempt from regulation and liability despite the risks they carried. The fix required an overhaul of the legislative process and produced some controversy between EU institutions before consensus was reached. ### Who actually makes the rules While it is tempting to imagine a government anywhere in the world, even dictatorships, as a single actor with a single view, in any central government there are three distinct communities: 1. Economics, business, and growth - Treasury and business development officials, commerce and trade, science and technology, innovation. 2. National security - Home and defence ministries, foreign ministries, security and intelligence agencies, all focused on risk. 3. Justice and rights - Policy makers concerned with human rights, equality, inclusion and discrimination; asking who AI includes and excludes. This is considered to be the weakest community in the system, though even authoritarian states register concerns about disproportionate effects on minorities. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2026/08/image-7.png) These three communities are not always in competition, but they frame the same opportunity and risk very differently. Around them sit regulators, who translate policy direction into rules that bind businesses, civil society and governments, and those who police privacy, data protection, and AI safety. The next layer is members of parliament and advisory councils, who shape debate and inject ideas. The final layer is what Professor Evans in the LSE called "the apex", such as the White House in the US, the Chinese presidency, or 10 Downing Street in the UK, which make the important calls such as on how much to invest, what is permitted, what access there should be to national data, and what guardrails apply. Apex decisions set direction, but most of the action happens one or two levels down, inside regulators and individual line ministries, through individual pieces of legislation. ### Four jurisdictions, four different bets Is your country home to any of the firms building AI models, and how do they rank against global competitors? This is the main reason why jurisdictions diverge so sharply. A country that hosts the leaders writes the rules that protect them. A country that hosts none has less or blunter instruments available. **The United States** is currently in the pole position, most of the major AI firms are based there, the intellectual property is largely American, and the training data and infrastructure largely American-operated. The policy goal for the US is to, naturally, cement this lead. Domestically that means a market-driven approach built on the "move fast, break things" model, with risk management distributed across federal agencies and no overarching legal oversight. This brings inconsistent policy, limited accountability, and weaker data protection. **The European Union**, has one major global AI firm, Mistral in France, and a much harder balancing act: benefit from the AI rollout, advantage European companies where possible, and protect European citizens, using regulation as the primary instrument. The EU moved early on AI, a regulatory framework proposal and impact assessment in 2021, an innovation package in 2024, the AI Act itself, as well as the latest simplification process, known as the AI Omnibus package, in mid 2026\. The EU AI Act itself is the first legal framework of its kind, built on a risk-based model that divides AI systems into four tiers based on their potential harm, as well as a separate category for general purpose AI models. The EU is, at the same time, criticised that over-regulation is a barrier to European innovation. **The United Kingdom** isn't an AI leader by the number of companies based there, but it is a significant contributor to AI policymaking, law, and intellectual property, and hosts many of the experts shaping the global debate. Its ambition is to be a superpower in safe innovation, while its constraints are a smaller economy and a later start. The creative and AI industries have been at odds over intellectual property for years, and in pledging to set out AI regulation, UK policy actors have committed to a copyright regime that somehow serves both sectors at once. **The Global South** is "a rules taker rather than a rules maker", according to Professor Evans, since AI firms are concentrated in the Global North. Countries can ban any system from operating, but as he notes, banning is "a very blunt instrument", essentially, a binary choice between having a capability and not having it. The structural challenges are severe: [43% of the population](https://institute.global/insights/tech-and-digitalisation/how-leaders-in-the-global-south-can-devise-ai-regulation-that-enables-innovation?ref=karlsnotes.com) in these countries are without internet access, have limited AI literacy, have systems that don't cater for many local languages, as well as shortages of skilled personnel, and a tension between data protection laws requiring local storage and the foreign investment those laws might deter. Boakye et al. (2025) describe the resulting power dynamic as marked by exploitation and the undermining of local control, a "[new era of digital colonialism](https://institute.global/insights/tech-and-digitalisation/how-leaders-in-the-global-south-can-devise-ai-regulation-that-enables-innovation?ref=karlsnotes.com)". Underneath all four jurisdictions run two further threads - **Data lakes**, with the largest sitting in China, India, and potentially the US and the EU. These can determine who can train effectively, but two things hold them back: the law, which sets what data can be accessed, shared and used; and fragmentation, with data siting in separate databases across companies and public bodies. The other thread is national champions, such as Microsoft for the US, DeepSeek for China, and Mistral for France. Professor Evans mentions the airline industry as the precedent, Boeing vs Airbus, with the same logic applying to AI here. Governments will always try to implement policy to the advantage of their national champions. This strategy can also backfire. US export controls were designed to deny Chinese firms cutting-edge chips. Instead, they pushed Chinese competitors to innovate towards greater efficiency. In January 2025 DeepSeek R1 matched or outperformed OpenAI's o1 model at a fraction of the computing cost, shocking global markets, and raising a fresh set of economic and regulatory questions. In this case, trade policy met uncertain technology and technology won. ### Anticipate > React Traditional policymaking is reactive by design. It puts out fires, manages short term problems around the electoral cycle, and where health checks exist they sit inside long, inflexible cycles of review, research, analysis, and drafting. Policymaking also wants to be relatively sure about cause and effect before it acts, which is precisely the problem with AI. Anticipatory policymaking works on two dimensions instead: **What is happening now.** Ethical risks are addressed through data diversity and representative datasets, regular audits, bias detection tools, diverse development teams, and ethical AI training. In risk regulation, rather than trying to establish who caused what and whether the harm could have been foreseen after the event, it sets rules up front about how systems must be designed. That allows potential harms to be tackled strategically and collectively rather than one case at a time. **What is happening next.** Forecasting AI's trajectory relies on several methods; Using stakeholder collaboration through expert surveys and consultations, and capturing not just consensus, but also disagreement, since disagreement flags the areas of uncertainty that may merit further research. Scenario planning and road mapping, and technological foresight, are the obvious next moves, but also weak signals, adjacent industries, and low-probability, high-impact outliers. There have been attempts at coordinating this internationally. The [Statement on Inclusive and Sustainable Artificial Intelligence for People and the Planet](https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/11/statement-on-inclusive-and-sustainable-artificial-intelligence-for-people-and-the-planet?ref=karlsnotes.com), agreed at the Paris AI Action Summit in February 2025, was signed by around sixty countries along with the EU, and the African Union Commission. The same summit also launched the [Coalition for Sustainable AI](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/en/press/new-coalition-aims-put-artificial-intelligence-more-sustainable-path?ref=karlsnotes.com), which brought together 91 parties from tech companies, countries, and international organisations, to address AI's environmental impact. However, shared stated values like inclusive growth, sustainability, human rights, transparency, security, safety, and accountability, have so far coexisted with approaches that are, in practice, more protectionist than collaborative. The clearest evidence is who declined to sign in Paris; the United States, and the United Kingdom. 💡 Key takeaway from Lesson 1 AI is hard to regulate for three main reasons: there is no settled definition to anchor rules to, no expert consensus on where the technology is heading, and no single actor inside government with authority over the answer. Every jurisdiction is making a bet under uncertainty - the EU on rules, the US on markets, the UK on being the honest broker, the Global South on influence it does not yet have. Anticipatory policymaking is the proposed response - design for a range of futures instead of waiting for certainty. --- This is a good point to explain some of the terms used throughout the next lessons. **Generative AI** is the systems that produce new, seemingly original content, text, images, audio, code, from a prompt by drawing on patterns learned from enormous volumes of training data rather than retrieving a fixed answer. **Foundation models** are the underlying models most generative AI is built on, trained broadly enough to be adapted to almost any downstream task. This is also why any fault in the training data ends up propagating into everything built on top. GPT-5.6 is one example, underpinning ChatGPT, and a list of other products. **Frontier models** are simply which foundation models currently sit at the capability ceiling, the most powerful systems that exist today. The definition moves as the technology does. Today's frontier model, becomes an ordinary one tomorrow. Indeed, when I took the course GPT-4 was a frontier model (!) _This post is for subscribers only._ ### My thoughts on the foreign policy AI evaluation gap URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/my-thoughts-on-the-foreign-policy-ai-evaluation-gap/ Last updated: 2026-08-05T09:24:30.000Z A recent paper published on Arxiv, '[The Foreign Policy AI Evaluation Gap](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.02955?ref=karlsnotes.com)', highlights the complexity of grading the use of AI when it comes to statecraft, which they define as "the purposive, institutionally mediated conduct through which a political actor seeks to shape its external environment." So this covers the whole toolkit that a state can use to act on the world, which includes everything from imposing sanctions, managing a crisis, using force, to drafting agreements, and also negotiating. In the paper, the authors claim that rather than asking whether AI is good for foreign policy in general, which is impossible to answer due to a lot of moving variables in real life statecraft, a five stage workflow should be tested at every turn and see whether AI usage for that task only has been successful or not when compared to just a human doing the work. They break this workflow into Research, Analyse, Strategise, Execute, and Monitor, with each one having its own 'Task', 'Output', 'Evaluation', and 'Primary TAIG (technical AI governance) capacities'. From my experience as a former diplomat of an EU member state, these five stages reflect how diplomacy, though not statecraft as a whole, produces an outcome. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2026/08/image-3.png) This framework for foreign-policy AI systems as suggested by Pozniak and Sania works well in a lot of cases I worked on. Let's take for example the preparations for an EU Foreign Affairs Council. Before an FAC session, we would map who wants what and where the constraints sit (**Research**), draft lines to take, and have our Permanent Representation give us feedback based on what they heard in Brussels. Positions rarely shift once the session starts, since most lines to take are settled in advance, but in other cases such as heated negotiations, a state's position can move, which is where you need to work out whether there is a real shift in language (**Analyse**). From there, usually the member state pushes its own line, or aligns with a group of states who have a common aim (**Strategise**). The last two stages do not exactly fit in the FAC case, as foreign policy is a member state competence. That said, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy issues common positions and statements once these have been negotiated between all member states (**Execute**). **Monitor**, meanwhile, can refer to checking whether a sanctions listing, approved by member states at the Council, still holds up at renewal, or whether new information means a case needs to be flagged. This framework runs into what the paper calls 'contested ground truth' - information this kind of AI system cannot capture such as the feedback we got from the PermRep in Brussels, for example, which could have been unpublished official statements from other member states, but also comments in passing or one-to-one conversations. An AI system doing the 'Research' part from public statements alone would have less data than officials would have. The framework has the right shape, and the paper makes a strong case for it. I look forward to seeing someone build it. [Andon Labs](https://andonlabs.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com) for diplomacy anyone? Minus the 'no humans in the loop' part, of course. ### Grok used in Iran strikes URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/grok-used-in-iran-strikes/ Last updated: 2026-07-22T17:55:23.000Z In a sworn court declaration by [Cameron Stanley](https://www.ai.mil/About/Leadership/Bio-Page/Article/3940370/cameron-stanley/?ref=karlsnotes.com), the US Department of War Chief Digital and AI Officer, he claimed that xAI's Grok for [Government](https://x.ai/grok/government?ref=karlsnotes.com) model was used during Operation Epic Fury to strike 2,000 distinct targets in Iran within 96 hours. This declaration was filed to keep a data centre running in the NAACP Clean Air Act suit against xAI, which is alleging that xAI is using polluting gas turbines in Memphis, Tennessee. Stanley's statement has been used to justify the data centre as a matter of national security, [saying](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5928204-pentagon-musk-grok-chatbot-iran-strikes/?ref=karlsnotes.com) that Grok has allowed the "support \[of\] military planning workflows, report synthesis and generation, predictive analytics for logistics and sustainment, red-teaming analysis of adversary positioning, personnel management, and medical supply lines". What's interesting is that in his statement Stanley referred to this use of AI in the war on Iran as something that has "enabled" the Operation, and not that it was used to fire on the targets. He seems to put Grok as assisting in decision-support and back office work, rather than fire control. At the same time, we have to note that this did not come from a defence briefing but in a filing from a stakeholder interested in keeping a data centre open, so there is of course some bias. Either way, it is the first time anyone in the administration has confirmed the use of Grok in the bombing of Iran. ### Gudja must not become the airport’s overflow URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/gudja-must-not-become-the-airports-overflow/ Last updated: 2026-06-06T14:18:14.000Z [*Originally published on MaltaToday*](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/comment/opinions/141740/gudja%5Fmust%5Fnot%5Fbecome%5Fthe%5Fairports%5Foverflow?ref=karlsnotes.com) Earlier this year, Prime Minister Robert Abela officially launched the East Expansion Project at Malta International Airport. He described it as a key investment in quality, resilience, and long-term infrastructure. The airport, he said, is often the first and last impression visitors have of Malta. Shortly after, Opposition Leader Alex Borg visited too. He praised MIA's strong and continuous investment and called on the government to match it with better national infrastructure so that tourists get the best possible experience. Two leaders in two different visits, but neither one of them mentioned Gudja or residents living nearby. Gudja sits closer to the airport than any other village in Malta. Its residents live with the daily reality of what it means to be neighbours with a facility that saw over ten million passenger movements last year, a figure expected to rise again this year. More than 65,000 aircraft movements were recorded in 2025\. Each one of those is felt in Gudja. This is not a new problem, but it is a growing one. The airport is in the middle of a €345 million investment programme, its largest since privatisation. For Malta as a whole, this is broadly positive as connectivity matters for an island economy. But for the people who live in Gudja, every expansion raises the same unanswered question: what about us? For years, people flying out for days or weeks have left their cars on Gudja's residential streets. A Local Council bylaw has helped, but it should not fall to a Local Council to manage the consequences of a national infrastructure hub. This summer, the airport itself advised travellers to consider alternatives to driving, proof that the problem has outgrown local solutions. Less visible, but equally important, is what is happening to the village's character. Gudja is increasingly becoming an airport suburb. Businesses that serve tourism, or that simply need to be near the airport, are setting up in the village. In one case, an operation that had been kicked out of the airport’s property, ended up relocating to Gudja instead. The result is a gradual commercialisation of a small residential community, that changes what a village looks and feels like to the people who live in it. Services designed for the airport should remain on airport premises, not be displaced into surrounding residential streets. This is not about being against the airport. Nobody in Gudja is calling for fewer flights or less quality tourism. The airport is vital infrastructure and residents understand that. What they are asking for is for the impact on their village to be recognised. They want to be consulted when decisions are made that affect their streets, their air quality, and their daily routines. They want planning decisions in Gudja to reflect the needs of a residential community, not the convenience of an expanding airport. Momentum has consistently taken the side of residents when communities are asked to bear the cost of decisions made over their heads. In Pembroke, we opposed the use of virgin public land for a football campus because residents had already absorbed more than their fair share of development. The same principle applies in Gudja. When national infrastructure expands, the people living beside it deserve a voice in how that expansion is managed. Other countries take this seriously. Airport authorities elsewhere in Europe invest in noise insulation for nearby homes, fund community programmes, and conduct regular environmental impact assessments that genuinely include local residents. These are standard practices in well-governed aviation markets, but Malta has yet to catch up. The health effects of living beside a busy airport are well documented internationally. Noise exposure, air quality concerns, and sleep disruption, are all public health considerations. Treating environmental protection and residents' wellbeing as inseparable, rather than as obstacles to growth, would be a meaningful shift in how we approach these issues. The Prime Minister spoke about the airport reflecting how Malta presents itself to the world, while the Leader of the Opposition spoke about giving tourists a better experience. While both are valid points, somewhere between the speeches and the guided tours, it would be worth hearing from the people who live just beyond the terminal. Their story is part of the airport's story too. ### Life in Norway during the Second World War URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/life-in-norway-during-the-second-world-war/ Last updated: 2026-04-28T17:27:21.000Z Someone on Reddit asked a simple question: [what was life like in Norway during WW2? ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Norway/comments/1s62t12/what%5Fwas%5Flife%5Flike%5Fin%5Fnorway%5Fduring%5Fww2/?ref=karlsnotes.com) The answers ran to hundreds of comments so I cannot verify them individually, but what people describe, aligns closely with the history of the Norwegian occupation. History that survives in family memory is not the same as history that survives in archives, but [I tend to value it more](https://www.karlsnotes.com/micro-level-history/). Grandchildren remembering what grandparents had told them - fragments of stories, that make up the kind of history that never makes it into books because no one thought to write it down. In the answers, one person shared a diary entry of their grandfather, who had written it to his newborn son, in Oslo, in September 1942\. The Nazi occupation of Norway was in its third year and Stalingrad was still under siege. The father had spent most of the day searching the city for a pacifier. *"The joy of your birth is great and all-conquering, but is sometimes divided by the thought of what the future will bring. Even daily needs cause difficulties and worries. None of what you as a newborn should and must have can be bought in the ordinary way."* He wrote about milk rations, about the cold, and how Allied planes had bombed the city that afternoon, and how people were in a strange mood; part fear, part grim satisfaction. He noted that the baby now had bread cards and meat cards, which was more than most. --- The Norwegian occupation lasted five years, from April 1940 to May 1945\. It touched every part of the country differently. What the Reddit comments make clear is how much the experience varied depending on where you lived, how old you were, and how visible you made yourself. In the cities, the shortages were constant; food was rationed, leather disappeared and things that had always been made from it like wallets and shoes, started being made from fish leather instead. In one comment, a mother remembered her daughter getting a new jacket for her birthday, wearing it proudly to school, and watching it dissolve in the rain on the way home. It had been made of paper. A grandmother was told by her doctor, after the liberation, to drink cream to put some fat back on her body. In the countryside, people tried to hide what they had before the Germans could record and confiscate it. Calves were concealed in silos. The Sami in the north faced a particular cruelty. Reindeer herding families were ordered to bring their animals to Helligskogen so the herds could be slaughtered to feed the German army. Many families went into hiding rather than comply, keeping their fires low so the smoke wouldn't give them away, and spreading the animals so they wouldn't look like they were being tended. --- Fear ran through everything - fear of saying the wrong thing, of being overheard, or of not knowing who among your neighbours might report you. *"We were very very suspicious of other people. One could not know who was a nazi and would turn you in. We all kept very quiet."* Hidden radios were common. People gathered in basements and barns to listen to broadcasts from the government in exile, despite knowing that getting caught meant arrest or worse. One comment mentions how a grandfather spent the rest of his life flinching at the sound of aircraft overhead. His dementia, decades later, would send him to the phone in the night to warn the police that the Nazis were at the port. The cost of resistance was not borne individually. Families understood that if one person was arrested, everyone who depended on them paid the price. That calculation, to stay quiet, keep your head down, protect the people around you, shaped millions of small decisions across the five years of occupation. --- Despite this, many comments mention how people pushed back, in ways that were sometimes brave and sometimes just quietly satisfying. A grandmother in Oslo played mocking march tunes on the piano in time to the boots of German soldiers passing her basement window. A woman whose house the Germans wanted to requisition for soldiers brought them inside, showed them a family of eleven sharing three beds, and watched them leave. Another woman, when ordered to darken her windows during a curfew, pointed at the German command centre nearby, which was fully lit, and said *"you first"*, then closed the door. A grandfather regularly forged the food records at the local commission for the poor, stealing supplies from German stocks to feed the elderly and the poor, then rowing them across the fjord in the dead of night to the poorhouse. A nurse, forced to treat wounded German officers, watered down their morphine before surgery. Boys threw pebbles at German soldiers. A grandmother tossed a pan of dirty dishwater out of the kitchen window onto a soldier who had been keeping his motorcycle started beneath it and stinking up the street. --- The worst of it happened in the north. Several comments come from families in Finnmark. In 1944, as the German army retreated, it implemented a scorched earth policy across the north of Troms and the entire Finnmark county. Everything was burned. Families were forced out at gunpoint, loaded onto buses, their livestock shot in front of them. One grandfather had gold buried in the ground; when his family returned, it was gone. A great-uncle died as a child just before the Germans burned the family's house. They hadn't been able to bury him yet. The body was stored in an outhouse. The Germans burned that too. Years later, a great-aunt published an account of how she had placed her brother's remains into a small coffin so that he could finally be buried. A grandmother from that region, still alive, remembered hiding in the bottom of a boat as a child while her family fled. She said the worst part was that people in the south didn't believe how bad it had been up north. --- The thread also contains the stories that are harder to tell. A woman who spent the war in a relationship with a German officer, then went back to her husband when it was over. Girls who accepted dresses and perfumes and nights out on the town from German soldiers while everyone around them went hungry — and who were, one grandmother recalled with hostility eighty years later, *smug* about it. A community that remembered, precisely and permanently, who had been *"a little striped"* (a low level collaborator) and who had been, in a phrase said by one elderly woman as quoted in the thread, *"a goddamn Quisling."* --- The father who wrote the diary in September 1942 did not know how much longer it would last. He didn't know that his son would grow up in a free country, or that the diary would eventually end up on the internet for strangers to read. He was just trying to account for the world his child had been born into. ### On Regulating the Unknown: The 1865 Locomotives Act and AI URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/on-regulating-the-unknown-the-1865-locomotives-act-and-ai/ Last updated: 2026-03-30T18:26:43.000Z In 1865, the British Parliament passed the Locomotives Act. It required that any 'self-propelled vehicle' be manned by three people, one of which had to precede the vehicle on foot and carry a red flag to warn horse-drawn carriages. The vehicle was limited to a maximum speed of 4 miles per hour in the countryside, and 2 miles per hour in towns. The law was designed to manage a new technology that was poorly understood and feared by the horse-drawn carriage industry and the public. Parliament responded with this detailed Act, that remained in force until 1896, to manage something which it did not understand. By then France and Germany had developed motor industries, and Britain, constrained by this legislation, had fallen behind in an industry it helped pioneer. When Parliament finally amended the Act, raising the speed limits and abolishing the red flag requirement, it was too late to recover lost ground. The EU AI Act followed a similar pattern. Formally proposed in April 2021, it took four years to draft at a time when the dominant AI model was narrow and task-specific. The EU's risk-based classification was built around this understanding. Between the proposal and its approval, the AI landscape changed entirely; GPT-4 was released and general purpose AI systems (GPAI) became common. Technologies that did not exist when negotiations began, had to be accommodated in a final text that was not designed for them, with the GPAI provisions sitting uneasily next to the original architecture of the Act. The concerns that have motivated the EU are real, but AI is a technology that is highly reflexive and adaptable, and its governance needs to match those qualities. Indeed, in 3 to 4 years we might not be talking about AI governance at all because AI will simply be present in everything, just like we don't talk of electricity policy, because electricity is a given in industrial, infrastructural and economic policy. Legislation specific enough to describe what AI is today, might not survive what the technology becomes tomorrow. ### A note from 'A Village in the Third Reich' URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/a-note-from-a-village-in-the-third-reich/ Last updated: 2026-03-06T09:30:58.000Z I have recently finished reading '[A Village in the Third Reich](https://bookshop.org/a/22778/9781639366132?ref=karlsnotes.com)', which I cannot recommend enough if you're interested in World War II history. The book takes a look at the history of Oberstdorf, a village at the foot of Bavaria, Germany, next to the border with Austria, and the experience of its people from the end of the First World War, to the immediate aftermath of the Second World War. This is not a review of the book, you can find many of those online. I just wanted to highlight a point from the book that drew my attention. It's about the story of a local resistance man in Oberstdorf, Hans Stadler. As the Second World War drew to a close in late April 1945, the small Bavarian village of Oberstdorf was deeply divided between diehard Nazis determined to fight on and those who wanted to surrender peacefully and spare the village from destruction. Stadler was a local forester and hunter who had joined the *Heimatschutz*, a civilian militia working covertly to hand Oberstdorf over to the approaching Allies. On the night of 27 April, after meeting with fellow resistance members in the village, Stadler returned to the Birgsau SS training camp where he had his quarters, intending to steal weapons for the resistance. In the early hours of 28 April he encountered SS Sergeant Josef Berghuber, a man he knew and with whom he did not agree much. When Berghuber ordered him to stop, Stadler, apparently too proud to comply, turned and walked away. Without warning, Berghuber raised his gun and shot him dead. This killing galvanised the resistance, which launched a coup on the night of 30 April, arresting Oberstdorf's prominent Nazis, and handing over the village to the French. Friends of Stadler, however, wanted revenge and on 4 May, a group from the resistance tracked down Berghuber and beat him to death with their rifle butts. These two deaths divided the people of the village, some taking the side of SS Sergeant Berghuber, saying he was only doing his job, while others defended Stadler and considered his resistance efforts as heroic. What drew my attention to the story was how the authors framed it in the wider context of the war, and how much more intensely we feel tragedy when it happens close to home: > "As the greatest conflict in human history neared its end, the issues that divided them, therefore focused on such matters as whether or not Stadler had been looting goods for the black market, or if Berghuber (who was not an Oberstdorfer) had simply been doing his duty. > In the context of the war in which it is estimated that some 80 million people died, it might seem that the deaths of these two minor players are of little consequence. **Yet among all the hideous crimes committed in the Third Reich, it is these specific acts of violence that were to polarise the villagers more intensely than any other.** The cold-blooded killing of Stadler, followed by the savage clubbing to death of Berghuber, had happened within the villagers' own community to men anyone might have spoken to hours before they were slain. **It was as if all the barbarity, butchery and horror of war, all the misery, the grief and suffering had been encapsulated in the deaths of these two men."** ### Expanding your company in the EU is about to become easier URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/expanding-your-company-in-the-eu-is-about-to-become-easier/ Last updated: 2026-03-09T15:16:01.000Z In her speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, European Commission President Von der Leyen [outlined](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech%5F26%5F150?ref=karlsnotes.com) plans for the establishment of 'EU Inc', which will allow citizens to register an EU-wide company online and within 48 hours. This is an extract from her speech. The emphasis is mine: > This reality also reflects the fact that Europe has all the assets it needs to attract investment – the savings, the skills, and the innovation – with our AI Factories and Gigafactories and the applications that are necessary, the ‘AI first' principle. What we need is to mobilise collectively these assets to their full potential. And to focus on the essential. Focal point number one is to create a conducive and predictable regulatory environment. We live in an age where capital and data can cross Europe in a second. And business must be able to move just as freely. But as things stand, too many companies have to look abroad to grow and scale up – partly because they face a new set of rules every time they expand into a new Member State. So while on paper the market of 450 million Europeans is open to them, it is far more complicated in reality. And that acts as a handbrake on the growth and profit potential of companies. This is why we need a new approach. We will soon put forward our 28th regime. **The ultimate aim is to create a new truly European company structure. We call it EU Inc., with a single and simple set of rules that will apply seamlessly all over our Union. So that business can operate across Member States much more easily. Our entrepreneurs, the innovative companies, will be able to register a company in any Member State within 48 hours – fully online.** They will enjoy the same capital regime all across the EU. Ultimately, we need a system where companies can do business and raise financing seamlessly across Europe – just as easily as in uniform markets like the US or China. If we get this right – and if we move fast enough – this will not only help EU companies grow. But it will attract investment from across the world. I bought [incorporateineu.com](https://www.incorporateineu.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com) a few hours after the speech. Once 'EU Inc' becomes real, I hope to make better use of it. Until then, I'll update this page as details emerge. Some [recent controversy](https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promises-new-startup-48-hour-delaware-regime-wont-lead-bad-bosses-boom/?ref=karlsnotes.com) came up regarding 'EU Inc' regarding workers' rights and the 28th regime. Trade unions warn against the emergence of a two-tier labour market and a race to the bottom in social standards if companies can simply ignore national rules by opting into the EU framework. Critics point to the European Company (SE) form as a cautionary tale, where over 3,220 dormant "shelf" SEs exist across Europe, created specifically to shed employee rights when later activated for real economic activity. The European Parliament has signalled broad backing nonetheless, voting 492 to 144 in favour of a report on the initiative, partly on the strength of included safeguards for labour standards and employee participation. Two big uncertainties remain. Whether the regime is enacted via regulation (applying directly everywhere) or directive (leaving room for national implementation) is unresolved — business groups strongly prefer a regulation, arguing a directive would simply recreate the same patchwork founders are trying to escape. Since member states are under no obligation to opt in, the result could end up as just another layer of bureaucracy, with founders shouldering compliance costs in adopting countries without feeling the benefits.[](https://tech.eu/2026/01/20/the-european-commission-launches-eu-inc-the-long-awaited-28th-regime-for-startups/?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Malta and food security URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/malta-and-food-security/ Last updated: 2026-01-18T12:46:58.000Z [Two days of bad weather](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/national/139103/gaps%5Fon%5Fsupermarket%5Fshelves%5Fbelieved%5Fto%5Fbe%5Fresult%5Fof%5Fweather%5Fdisruptions?ref=karlsnotes.com) is all it took for supermarket shelves in Malta to empty out, after ferry services from Sicily were halted. Around 70% of our food is imported and our supply chains are one storm away from disruption. The Financial Times this week [reported ](https://www.ft.com/content/18d75e20-b63e-4f47-8f63-58c0cc4bca22?ref=karlsnotes.com)on a global shift where nations are stockpiling food at a fast pace, preparing for prolonged instability. Finland is extending grain reserves from 6 to 9 months. Sweden is spending €60m to stockpile grain, seeds and fertiliser. China is spending $18bn annually on stockpiling, with reserves covering over a year. India's rice reserves hit 58 million tonnes in December. Indonesia has nearly doubled its rice stocks since late 2024\. Egypt expanded storage to 6 million tonnes, while Bangladesh is stockpiling fertiliser, diesel and edible oil along with grains. The era of assuming global supply chains will always deliver is over. Climate change, export restrictions, and geopolitical tensions have made food a strategic asset again, and in Malta we should keep this in perspective. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2026/01/FT.jpeg) ### Running Venezuela: The Return of the American Protectorate? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/running-venezuela-the-return-of-the-american-protectorate/ Last updated: 2026-01-03T22:10:19.000Z In a midnight raid on Caracas on 3rd January, the US quickly deposed Nicolas Maduro as President of Venezuela by kidnapping him and the First Lady, and bombing several locations. At a press conference the following morning, President Trump remarked that following the ousting of President Maduro, the US is "going to run the country until such time as \[we\] can do a safe, proper and judicious transition." There are still a lot of questions about what happens now that President Maduro is not in control anymore. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, together with other senior government members, was on national television a few hours after the press conference saying that Venezuela “will never again be anyone’s colony – neither of old empires, nor of new empires, nor of empires in decline”. At the same time, President Trump seemed determined that Venezuela is under the control of the US, saying there's a team that would be running it and that this team includes the people standing behind him at the press conference: among them Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of War Hegseth, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, as well as the White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, Stephen Miller. If history were to be of any guidance, Cuba might give us an indication of how the US could run Venezuela. In 1901, Cuba, right after the Spanish-American War, included the Platt Amendment in its constitution as a condition for the US to withdraw its troops from the island, but it also gave the US the right to intervene militarily in Cuban affairs, prohibit Cuba from signing treaties that could undermine its independence, and require it to lease naval stations to the US, such as Guantánamo Bay. Cuba was *de jure* sovereign, it had elections, its own government, but ultimate authority always rested with Washington. Indeed, throughout the time that the Amendment was in force, the US intervened militarily three times in Cuba. The consequences of this were predictable. Cuban Presidents were always governing under the shadow of a potential US intervention and could not assert their authority. Everyone knew that Washington held the real power, and the Cuban elite, especially those with ties to US interests in the sugar industry, benefited the most. At the same time, local institutions lost legitimacy and nationalism became the only 'real' opposition, which in turn radicalised Cuban politics and eventually led to the Cuban Revolution of 1959. What could such a model look like for Venezuela in 2026? We can expect that until a "proper transition" takes place, Venezuela would undergo a period of 'constrained sovereignty' where the US would assert its right to intervene both politically and militarily, independently of whoever is in government during this time. While initially many expected that Nobel Prize winner and opposition leader María Corina Machado could lead a transitional government, President Trump has already shown his distrust, saying "it would be difficult for her" to lead Venezuela, and that "she does not have the support in Venezuela." At the press conference, Trump said that Secretary of State Rubio was already in touch with Venezuela's Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, and he claimed that she agreed to work with the US. "She had no choice", confirmed Trump, contrary to press reports quoting her as saying that Maduro remains "Venezuela’s only president". On the military aspect, President Trump made it clear that the US is prepared to use force again. "We are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so," he said, highlighting the US's apparent original plan to stage another attack, presumably should the first have failed. Any Venezuelan government would be expected to cooperate on US security priorities: stronger border control and counter-narcotic operations, with the implication that non-cooperation would only invite further intervention. Another provision, if not *the* provision, in a 'Venezuelan Platt' would be US control over Venezuelan oil. President Trump himself has repeatedly stated, both before and during the press conference, that the US is "going to have \[our\] very large US oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country...". The US would probably also ensure that any transitional and future Venezuelan government would not enter into renewed agreements, or maybe any agreements at all with countries like Iran and China. "We can’t take a chance that somebody else takes over Venezuela that doesn’t have the good of the Venezuelan people in mind \[after\] decades of that. We’re not going to let that happen." Just as in Cuba, any potential Venezuelan government would govern in the shadow of Washington, aware of the risk of being overthrown, should it do anything that goes against US interests. While we have yet to see how the transition is organised and how long the US would continue to directly impact politics in Venezuela, its actions on 3rd January, as well as its promise to "run" the country, could leave Venezuelan institutions directly dependent on the US, and only serve to increase anti-US sentiment in the country. *Chavismo* is more than just Maduro; there are people who really believe in the system and will defend it. Indeed, elements of Maduro's government have already called for resistance to the US's intervention. The Platt Amendment in Cuba was eventually recognised as a failure by the US and was abrogated in 1934 under Franklin Roosevelt's 'Good Neighbor Policy'. It still created conditions for instability and radicalisation that eventually led to Fidel Castro's communist revolution in 1959, and Cuba has remained an authoritarian state since then. So can the US administer Venezuelan sovereignty without repeating the same mistakes made in Cuba? History suggests it will be difficult. ### Interesting things I found this year URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/interesting-things-i-found-this-year/ Last updated: 2025-12-28T15:55:01.000Z The following are some of the more interesting images, posts, links I found throughout 2025, whether online or in my travels. ### Recruiting for the Endurance A copy of Ernest Shackleton's famous 1912 recruitment advertisement for the Imperial Trans-Antarctic Expedition aboard the Endurance, which became legendary for its honest description of the dangers involved. The ad's warning of "hazardous journey, small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger" with "safe return doubtful" has become iconic in leadership and adventure literature. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/image-5.png)](https://x.com/BullMooseProj/status/1973735748940566836?s=20&ref=karlsnotes.com) ### British Army pay cheque A British Army pay cheque from World War II Malta from 1944, issued for £30 through Barclays Bank. It was used to pay military personnel stationed in Malta during the war, with revenue stamps affixed. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/image.png)](https://x.com/i/status/1876681587775213718?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### The roads of the Roman Empire Itiner-e is a digital atlas project that hosts the most detailed open dataset of roads across the entire Roman Empire. > Tell your boss that I gave you the rest of the week off so you can explore this amazing interactive map showing the road network of the Roman Empire. This is so much fun to explore you can compare the Ancient and Modern road network for example. Great stuff. Your boss will… [pic.twitter.com/kIcLb7oF1N](https://t.co/kIcLb7oF1N?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) [December 5, 2025](https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1997004315529969698?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) ### British Passport for the Island of Malta and its Dependencies This is a British passport issued for the Island of Malta and its Dependencies, belonging to a Miss M. Mifsud dated 19 July 1950\. It represents Malta's colonial period when Maltese citizens travelled on British passports before the Islands gained independence in 1964. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/image-1.png)](https://x.com/i/status/1841893688932540886?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Amazon's Hits and Misses A list of Amazon's experimental product launches between 2015-2022, showing which succeeded (green dots) and which were discontinued (red dots). It illustrates Amazon's aggressive trial-and-error approach to innovation, with only three products still alive and profitable out of dozens of attempts, embodying Jeff Bezos's philosophy that failure is essential to learning and eventual success. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/image-3.png)](https://x.com/i/status/1975570751056220494?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Socialist Heraldry A collection of the official state emblems and coats of arms from 16 socialist and communist countries throughout the 20th century, including Soviet republics, Eastern Bloc nations, and other socialist states. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/image-4.png)](https://x.com/JustCherry%5F%5F/status/1996982243563393161?s=20&ref=karlsnotes.com) ### The Carnation Revolution After reading the '[The Carnation Revolution](https://bookshop.org/a/22778/9780861547548?ref=karlsnotes.com)' by Alex Fernandes, I visited Lisbon and all the places related to the revolution in the city. The photos below show the entrance where the famous military officer, Salgueiro Maia, a prominent figure in the military coup of 25 April 1974, climbed on top of a military tank to address the crowd that had gathered in the square at the Carmo Barracks, where the Portuguese Prime Minister at the time, Marcelo Caetano, was hiding. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/lisbon1-1.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/lisbon2-1.jpeg) ### Electric Lightning jets in Malta An interesting photograph of Electric Lightning supersonic interceptor jets of the Royal Air Force, at RAF Luqa in Malta, likely during the 1960s. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/image-2.png)](https://x.com/i/status/2002147917151207890?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Zohran Mamdani's start In 2020, Zohran Mamdani, then a 28-year-old Democratic Socialist and foreclosure prevention counsellor, won the New York State Assembly seat for District 36 representing Astoria, thanks to a few hundred volunteers. He went on to win the Democratic Primary in 2025 and the election for Mayor of New York City, all on a platform many deemed un-American. Goes to show how a few committed people can change the course of history. > Shoutout to the 423 Astoria patriots who made this possible 5 years ago [https://t.co/XfKmf0f8Xe](https://t.co/XfKmf0f8Xe?ref=karlsnotes.com) [pic.twitter.com/NYB8MNiaL4](https://t.co/NYB8MNiaL4?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Kara McCurdy (@karakul) [November 22, 2025](https://twitter.com/karakul/status/1992294459116003343?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) ### On meetings I hated most meetings I attended this year because they usually are full of fluff and take too long, so I thought these 3 steps were a nice way to ensure that every meeting that needs to be held is productive. > Nothing upsets me more than poor decision-making meetings. > > You only need 3 questions: > > a) what information do we need to make the decision? > b) do we have the information? > c) what's the decision? > > Be prepared with (a) and (b). The meeting's only concern is (c). > > — Jon Wu (@jonwu\_) [August 5, 2025](https://twitter.com/jonwu%5F/status/1952788076763218113?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Handmaking a cigarette case Not promoting smoking, but I thought this cigarette case someone made from stainless steel was very cool. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/Gy_cmbDWIAALbbV.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/Gy_cmbIWwAAQRNy.jpeg) ### Understanding the way you look at the world I don't have proof that this is true, but it reminds me of Napoleon Bonaparte's quote that "to understand the man you have to know what was happening in the world when he was twenty.” Have you read or consumed a piece of media when you were 9-13 years old that impacted your worldview? > I have a theory that everyone consumed a piece of media between 9-13 years old that is the foundation of their entire worldview. Everything they learnt since was stacked on top of this. It's a great dinner question to ask people. > > — George Mack (@george\_\_mack) [June 16, 2025](https://twitter.com/george%5F%5Fmack/status/1934729950436942154?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) ### The year 2000 was when all of humanity was on Earth > October 31, 2000, was the last time all of humanity was on Earth. > > Since then, there has always been at least one person in space. [https://t.co/Z4LrwxgCEe](https://t.co/Z4LrwxgCEe?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Encyclopaedia Britannica (@Britannica) [April 2, 2025](https://twitter.com/Britannica/status/1907493853252522417?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Investing in Peace Earlier this year, my article was published on 'Times of Malta', Malta's longest running daily newspaper. I wrote about a subject close to my heart - especially being a former diplomat - namely, the importance of having a professional, well trained, and motivated diplomatic corps, especially for a small country like Malta and in light of the current international scenario. You can read the full article [here](https://www.karlsnotes.com/investing-in-peace/). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/tom.jpeg) ### Rovereto's Italian War History Museum ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/rovereto-1.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/12/rovereto2.jpeg) In July this year I visited the [Italian War History Museum](https://museomitag.it/en/?ref=karlsnotes.com) housed since 1921 at the Castle of Rovereto in Trentino, Italy. It is one of the best military museums I have ever visited and does a good job in showing the history of armies and wars between the 19th century and the First World War, and collections of Modern Era weapons (15th-18th century). At this musuem I also found the items above - a poster showing British Army losses during the First World War, including Maltese soldiers, as well as the insignia of the Royal Malta Artillery. Wishing you a great start to 2026! ### New French platform combines carpooling with cross-border price arbitrage in the EU URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/new-french-platform-combines-carpooling-with-cross-border-price-arbitrage-in-the-eu/ Last updated: 2025-09-14T08:32:55.000Z # A few days ago on 11th September, a platform was set up in France with the explicit aim to help consumers take advantage of different prices in neighbouring EU Member States of common staples like cigarettes and alcohol. Carklop's idea is to use the model that BlaBlaCar has perfected for cross-border carpooling to France's neighbours (Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, and Andorra), so that users can buy cheaper cigarettes and alcohol while respecting the EU quota limits. The platform, which takes a 15% commission on each ride, was created by Philippe Poulard, a 52-year-old entrepreneur from Haute-Saône, who observed that tobacco prices were almost three times higher in France than in Germany. According to an example detailed by Carklop, a round trip to Germany with three passengers allows everyone to save 379.5 euros on 33 packs of hand-rolling tobacco purchased per person, for a carpooling cost of 11.5 euros per person (petrol, toll, and the 15% commission taken by the application). This has of course angered the traditional tobacco shops, especially those near the borders, and the SNTL, the National Union of Light Transport, which has reported the platform to the Ministry for Transport because Carklop is a "tool for facilitating and almost legalising smuggling", according to SNTL. The president of the National Confederation of Tobacco Shop Owners called it "completely outrageous" and said they're considering legal action. For context, EU quotas allow each adult to bring back up to 800 cigarettes, 400 cigarillos, 200 cigars or 1 kg of tobacco. For alcohol: 10 litres of spirits, 20 litres of intermediate beverages, 90 litres of wine, and 110 litres of beer. Whether this platform will survive the legal and political pressure remains to be seen, but it highlights the stark price differences that exist across EU borders and the creative ways entrepreneurs are finding to exploit them. ### North Korea's Tourism Push Comes at a Cost to Local Residents URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/north-koreas-tourism-push-comes-at-a-cost-to-local-residents/ Last updated: 2025-08-12T07:46:11.000Z DailyNK uses satellite data to [reveal](https://www.dailynk.com/english/lights-out-locals-north-korea-new-resort-blazes-bright/?ref=karlsnotes.com) how North Korea's new beach resort gets priority electricity access while local residents face increased power restrictions: > The Wonsan-Kalma Coastal Tourist Area—a pet project of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un—finally opened on July 1, eleven years after [construction](https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korean-logistics-officials-scramble-feed-workers/?ref=karlsnotes.com) began. Kim attended the lavish opening ceremony with his daughter Kim Ju Ae, and even his wife Ri Sol Ju made a rare appearance after staying out of the public eye for a year and a half. The first foreign visitors, a group of Russian tourists, hit Kalma Peninsula’s beaches on July 7 and are scheduled to return in August. North Korea isn’t accepting Chinese tourists yet. > The Wonsan-Kalma Coastal Tourist Area is a North Korean-style resort complex with stunning nighttime coastal views—the lights never go out. But behind Myongsasimni Beach’s dazzling display lies a harsh reality: Wonsan residents are dealing with electricity [restrictions](https://www.dailynk.com/english/going-mobile-north-korean-traders-move-business-home-evade-restrictions/?ref=karlsnotes.com) to keep the resort powered up, as [satellite](https://www.dailynk.com/english/satellite-evidence-points-heightened-operations-north-korean-nuclear-site/?ref=karlsnotes.com) photos reveal. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/08/image-2.png) > Using visible and infrared imagery averaged over 31 days of May photos, I studied Wonsan, Kalma Peninsula, and the surrounding area. This approach smooths out weather-related errors for more accurate analysis. In May—when construction was in full swing before the July 1 opening—the Myongsasimni Beach area was clearly lit up like a beacon. At the same time, lighting had dropped significantly around Wonsan Harbor, downtown Wonsan, and near the international [airport](https://www.dailynk.com/english/cash-strapped-n-korean-diplomats-reveal-financial-struggles-through-airport-luggage/?ref=karlsnotes.com). It appears electricity has been rationed for downtown Wonsan residents, with power redirected to run the coastal tourist zone and its bright lights. ### Assessing the effects of anti-mafia police actions on lending URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/assessing-the-effects-of-anti-mafia-police-actions-on-lending/ Last updated: 2025-08-11T17:33:31.000Z The Financial Times [reports](https://www.ft.com/content/ea673867-3cbc-420f-b944-67024b9d40cd?ref=karlsnotes.com) on a European Central Bank [study](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3060~2ea4ebd7aa.en.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) that shows: > Between 2018 and 2021, nearly 700 Mafia-linked firms across Italy were dismantled. An ECB [study](https://archive.ph/o/IQiEi/https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3060~2ea4ebd7aa.en.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) into the impact of this crackdown — conducted alongside a team of academics from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, University of Padua and Seattle University — shows that dismantling Mafia-controlled companies can boost productivity in affected areas. > By linking police actions to local credit flows, the study focuses on the ripple effects in nearby businesses without direct criminal ties. The results are striking. Where Mafia firms were shut down, lending to legitimate businesses rose by between 0.8 per cent and 2.1 per cent, compared with areas untouched by police action. In total, we estimate that up to €3.6bn in new credit flowed to local companies now able to expand and compete on a level playing field. ### Investing in Peace URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/investing-in-peace/ Last updated: 2025-08-11T12:15:20.000Z [*Originally published by the Times of Malta*](https://timesofmalta.com/article/investing-peace.1110073?ref=karlsnotes.com) “It is in this spirit that Malta speaks of and promotes its active neutrality. We seek and promote peace and stability in a troubled and complex region. Malta presents no threat of any nature to anyone. Malta extends to all its neighbours the engagement and commitment of an honest broker, an intermediary or simply a venue of dialogue and discussion, in the search for a resolution of the many problems which beset them.” These were the words of former prime minister Alfred Sant at the United Nations General Assembly in September 1997, summarising Malta’s concept of neutrality, which has been the subject of much discussion lately. While interpretations vary, the constitution itself is clear that neutrality is not as isolationist or limiting as some commonly perceive it. Indeed, Malta can, and has, in cases such as the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, taken a clear position advocating for peace and security while maintaining its neutral status. In an era where military conflicts increasingly threaten global stability, diplomacy must remain our country’s primary tool for ensuring security and influence. The foreign ministry’s latest Strategic Framework recognises this explicitly, acknowledging the work of all its diplomats and personnel and their crucial role in advancing Malta’s interests on the global stage. Investment in professional diplomatic services yields greater returns for countries our size, enabling influence beyond what is expected. The expertise required in diplomacy cannot be built overnight or easily transferred from other sectors. It requires competent, predictable recruitment, training and development with a clearly defined career path. Several countries with limited military capabilities that have global influence have invested in professional foreign services based on merit. Singapore projects influence far beyond its small size through skilled diplomatic representation, even within multilateral organisations such as the UN. Too often, however, we have treated diplomatic positions as political/ad hoc appointments rather than careers that require institutional memory and continuous development. This approach severely demotivates career diplomats and undermines our long-term ability as a country to protect our citizens and interests abroad. It risks a perpetual brain drain and destroys important relationship networks that take years to build, while preventing the development of regional and issue-based expertise. In order to make full use of Malta’s neutral status, carefully cultivated since the 1987 constitutional clause on neutrality, we must have a well-trained, organised diplomatic service that would be at the forefront of addressing present and future challenges. We must move away from an arbitrary model that treats the diplomatic service and personnel at the foreign ministry as replaceable and recognise the importance of training and experience. Creating a professional diplomatic service must begin with a clear career path that respects the unique aspects of diplomatic life. Diplomats and personnel serving Malta abroad, for example, make significant personal sacrifices, uprooting their lives and often their partners’ or families’ lives in the process. Any serious reform must recognise this sacrifice and provide appropriate support, which includes a transparent framework for contract renewal, extensions and benefits. While the Maltese diplomatic service already has established progression stages between second secretary and ambassador, merit-based promotion criteria need to be strengthened, with more frequent calls for applications for the various stages. Compensation and adequate allowances must also reflect the work and the challenges one faces during the course of the service. This is not merely an administrative detail but an investment that attracts and retains talent from various fields. As Malta takes over the presidency of the Council of Europe for the coming months, the need for a professional diplomatic service has never been greater. These reforms would transform Malta’s diplomatic service from an ad hoc system of appointments into a professional corps capable of consistently advancing our national interests on the European and international stage, even in times of great global instability. ### The great Malaysian cooking oil arbitrage URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-great-malaysian-cooking-oil-arbitrage/ Last updated: 2025-07-10T17:46:41.000Z Malaysian cooking oil subsidies and EU biofuel mandates have [created](https://www.ft.com/content/e05880c5-244d-4073-97c4-cf2ce01a5b1f?ref=karlsnotes.com) an arbitrage opportunity where fresh oil can be bought cheap, relabelled as 'used', and sold at a profit to aviation fuel producers. > ...the Straits Times and Climate Home News recently reported on a striking scheme in Melaka, Malaysia, where locals were selling cooking oil that would eventually be used to supply European producers of aviation fuel. > The underlying idea of turning a waste product, used cooking oil, into something that can be blended into aviation fuel seems as appealing as [getting the cobras out of Delhi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse%5Fincentive?ref=karlsnotes.com). Cooking oil starts tasting bad after being used for frying three to five times, but as an input to aviation fuel, used oil is perfectly good. > At this point two intriguing forces intersect: European governments are demanding that airlines use more biofuels from sustainable sources — used cooking oil being one — while the Malaysian government subsidises cooking oil. > This means that in Malaysia buying fresh oil is cheap and selling used oil is lucrative. If you run a food stall or restaurant in Malaysia, you can buy subsidised fresh oil, fry food a few times, then sell the waste oil at a profit. It’s a nice side-hustle. > The trouble is, writes financial journalist Matt Levine, “If you don’t run a restaurant, you can buy fresh cooking oil for $0.60, not use it to fry food any times, and then say, ‘Oh, yeah we totally used this oil,’ and sell it to a refiner for $1.” That seems a simpler and more scalable way to proceed. It certainly cuts out the precarious, time-consuming hassle of actually running a restaurant. It is hard to know how much fresh oil is being resold this way, but fraudsters have both the motive and the opportunity. > Climate Home news notes that Malaysia collects an astonishing volume of “used” cooking oil: more per person than anywhere else, and two and a half times as much as second-placed Singapore. ### The Hanseatic League URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-hanseatic-league/ Last updated: 2025-06-15T12:27:47.000Z The Works in Progress magazine has an interesting piece on [the rise and fall of the Hanseatic League:](https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-hanseatic-league/?ref=karlsnotes.com) > The original hansas were bands of Germanic merchants who traveled together for protection against pirates at sea, robber bandits on the riverways, and bandits and brigands on land. Each hansa originated from a common region. There were hansas from Cologne, Hamburg, Lubeck, Dortmund, and scores of other towns. > The Hanseatic system would ultimately organize around four major trading outposts, known as kontors: London in England, Bruges in Flanders, Novgorod in Russia, and Bergen in Norway. Each of these kontors has its own history, but the most significant lessons in Hanseatic coalitions can be drawn from London. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/06/hanseatic-map3-2-1024x837.png) > Politically, the Hansa was a coalition. But economically it was a cartel. It did not just fight obstacles to trade but, specifically, obstacles to *their* trade. Those obstacles could include competing merchant communities, which they addressed with the most thinly veiled threats. Consider this message dispatched from the Prussian Hansa towns to Nurnberg merchants in 1399: > Dear friends. We wish to inform your worships that some of your fellow burgesses have this year sent copper and other goods by sea to Flanders, which has never happened before and has no precedent. Therefore, dear friends, we warn you and yours in all friendship and beg you to ban and forbid this practice in the future, as we fear – if this practice should continue – that you and yours would thereby suffer loss, for which we would be very sorry . . . > The Hanseatic cartel was mighty and menacing when it was united. But as it found out, cartels are notoriously difficult to keep together. The cartel had to navigate defection at every layer. At first, the challenge was maintaining unity between different regional communities. But even after the kontors established themselves, they had to deal with individual merchants defecting from boycotts. And then, when the Hanseatic League formed, it had to deal with the issue of local Hansa merchants ‘leaking’ their trading privileges to their non-Hansa partners. ### What happened after Prigozhin's mutiny in June 2023? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/what-happened-after-prigozhins-mutiny-in-june-2023/ Last updated: 2025-05-19T09:39:24.000Z On 24 June 2023, many were following closely the events taking place in Russia, believing that they were witnessing a coup d'état live on X (Twitter) in one of the world's nuclear powers. Many were also left questioning what happened in its aftermath and before Wagner's founder was killed/died in August that year. This is an excerpt from a book I've recently read and greatly recommend, titled '[Death is our Business: Russian Mercenaries and the New Era of Private Warfare](https://bookshop.org/a/22778/9781639733361?ref=karlsnotes.com)' by John Lechner, that paints a clearer picture: > While the Kremlin's propaganda machine was busy denigrating Prigozhin and Wagner, Putin met his former "chef" and the top commanders. "Well, you finally got your meeting," the president reportedly sneered. While the exact details are unclear, there are reports that Putin suggested Wagner's managing director, Andrei "Sedoi" Troshev, take over leadership. Prigozhin balked at any changes at the top—if he wasn't going to be minister of defense, then at least he would retain his leadership over Wagner. Only Prigozhin thought he would get away with mutiny; many Russia analysts were surprised he got a meeting in the first place and interpreted it as a sign of regime weakness. > Those expecting swift retribution from Putin would be disappointed. In fact, it was Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, the man who started the war in Donbas, who was the first to suffer. Like Prigozhin, Strelkov had been highly critical of the Kremlin's handling of the war in Ukraine—he mostly claimed that the Russian government wasn't doing enough. Even though he had no role in the mutiny, and was in fact no friend of Prigozhin's, Strelkov was arrested and sentenced to four years in prison on charges of "extremism." > Prigozhin, however, was still a free man and his fellow mutineers were also unscathed. One top Wagner commander told Russian media his men were "simply on vacation," and work would start soon in Belarus. Indeed, as part of Prigozhin's agreement with Lukashenko and the Russian government, the Belarusian leader proposed Wagner relocate its headquarters to his country. The PMC's instructors and mercenaries would help train the Belarusian army and, presumably, provide security for Lukashenko. For decades, Lukashenko deftly walked a tightrope between independence and economic reliance on Russia. In hosting Wagner, the Belarusian leader found a rare chance to exert leverage on Russia's domestic affairs. On July 19, the flag in Wagner's old base in Molkino was lowered, and a new one was raised at what appeared to be Wagner's new camp in Tsel, a Belarusian village in the center of the country. > At dusk, amid the constant drone of insects in the cooling Belarusian countryside, Prigozhin stood in front of hundreds of fighters: "Welcome to Belarus!" he shouted. "Ura!" rumbled the chorus. "We fought honorably," he continued. "You have done much for Russia. Now what's occurring on the front is a disgrace, in which we need not participate \[...\] Therefore, the decision has been made that we will spend some time here in Belarus. In that time, I am sure, we will make the Belarusian army the second best in the world \[...\] we will also prepare for new phase in Africa." Prigozhin then turned it over to Utkin, "the commander who gave us the name Wagner." > "This is not the end," Utkin roared, "but only the beginning." And, switching into English, he shouted: "Welcome to Hell!" ### Comparison of Indian and Pakistani nuclear forces URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/comparison-of-indian-and-pakistani-nuclear-forces/ Last updated: 2025-05-09T09:54:10.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/05/5f8df8f471ea934ebec713939a6fe16f97b92f77.png) [Military briefing: India and Pakistan test red lines of nuclear rivalry](https://www.ft.com/content/bd1691da-4e0c-49e8-a112-7f9cec7df162?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### You can learn a language by watching television (and change pronunciation in the process) URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/you-can-learn-a-language-by-watching-television-and-change-pronunciation-in-the-process/ Last updated: 2025-04-25T06:27:46.000Z > What is an internationally not well-known possibility is that you apparently can learn a language just by watching TV because it’s the most interesting TV available. > Older generations informally acquired Italian by watching Italian television. > Today, younger Maltese are not doing the same and are, in fact, far more exposed to English-language media. The researchers set out to determine whether this shift has influenced the way younger Maltese speakers pronounce the R sound – a consonant known for being one of the most variable and easily influenced across world languages. > Maltese audiences have been exposed to Italian since the early 20th century, with Italian radio transmissions reaching the island as early as the 1930s. By 1957, one of the first television broadcasts to be aired in Malta came from Rai in Sicily. Malta’s own television broadcasts only began five years later, in 1962, with the launch of the Malta Television Service, later known as TVM. > In contrast, younger Maltese audiences have grown up immersed in English-language content, largely due to the influence of YouTube and other digital platforms. Channels such as Nickelodeon, Cartoon Network, Disney Channel, and various BBC outlets like CBeebies were staples of their childhood media consumption. [Why younger Maltese people are now rolling their Rs less](https://timesofmalta.com/article/why-younger-maltese-people-now-rolling-rs-less.1108444?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Voting in South Korea is split West-East URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/voting-in-south-korea-is-split-west-east/ Last updated: 2025-04-21T12:34:03.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/04/74b1cc19-05bd-4888-93ff-636be4e5eef8_575x766.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/04/odsolhh74kw61.png) > In South Korea, the blue are the center-left [Democratic Party](https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Fredirect%2Fe1918628-8437-47f3-830c-3aa5e60cf55d%3Fj%3DeyJ1IjoiOTVqcXgifQ.jlrB5KL-mZPWClTLZFSVV3Y3BOynICjDQzUS-zhJt0U&data=05%7C02%7Ckarl-anthony.borg.1%40tech.mt%7C5ca1e2372f994bcd7b2408dd7cd070f1%7C34cdd9f55db849bcacba01f65cca680d%7C0%7C0%7C638803956892800666%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=lh9AZ8XJKG6i6DDyDU64OWfCkLeoI%2FIuSoneETMn4AU%3D&reserved=0&ref=karlsnotes.com) and the red are the conservative [People Power Party](https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Fredirect%2F4c60cead-6fb0-4ee3-b648-29833bcf5e45%3Fj%3DeyJ1IjoiOTVqcXgifQ.jlrB5KL-mZPWClTLZFSVV3Y3BOynICjDQzUS-zhJt0U&data=05%7C02%7Ckarl-anthony.borg.1%40tech.mt%7C5ca1e2372f994bcd7b2408dd7cd070f1%7C34cdd9f55db849bcacba01f65cca680d%7C0%7C0%7C638803956892819686%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=orlPRWqGZyFgcBLeTlMFh%2BRpW5t04fUbw82w7UlfclY%3D&reserved=0&ref=karlsnotes.com). Together, they account for [95%](https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Fredirect%2F76dfd5f0-7502-4cbd-a0e9-763af2d3fc01%3Fj%3DeyJ1IjoiOTVqcXgifQ.jlrB5KL-mZPWClTLZFSVV3Y3BOynICjDQzUS-zhJt0U&data=05%7C02%7Ckarl-anthony.borg.1%40tech.mt%7C5ca1e2372f994bcd7b2408dd7cd070f1%7C34cdd9f55db849bcacba01f65cca680d%7C0%7C0%7C638803956892838469%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=e8JPeGanF0%2FzevKrN2SQxCj%2FcauVfJkQ%2BdOEzPuwUdY%3D&reserved=0&ref=karlsnotes.com) of the vote. [Source](https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Fredirect%2F0a73e857-2485-4e3f-9ef0-b38ab6715a20%3Fj%3DeyJ1IjoiOTVqcXgifQ.jlrB5KL-mZPWClTLZFSVV3Y3BOynICjDQzUS-zhJt0U&data=05%7C02%7Ckarl-anthony.borg.1%40tech.mt%7C5ca1e2372f994bcd7b2408dd7cd070f1%7C34cdd9f55db849bcacba01f65cca680d%7C0%7C0%7C638803956892856583%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=MKH4oN2mmnkm0CjUmEUz4cVtZUo6oPpvT%2BtUIJ7IUfE%3D&reserved=0&ref=karlsnotes.com). > One of the most common political divides is that cities tend to be much more progressive and rural areas more conservative. It makes sense: In rural areas, population density is much lower, so people resolve their conflicts amongst themselves, and they see little impact from governmental actions. And since there’s not a lot of people movement or economic activity, new problems won’t quickly emerge, so tradition is a good proxy for the set of rules you should follow. People vote for smaller governments and more conservative parties. Conversely, in cities people cross paths with strangers all the time, so the state often needs to intervene in social conflicts, and its footprint is therefore everywhere, and people vote for more progressive parties that want a bigger administration. > Since the east of Korea is [much more mountainous](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fodsolhh74kw61.png&rdt=62189&ref=karlsnotes.com), it’s much less densely populated, and hence leans more conservative. [16 Most Surprising Facts About Korea - Tomas Pueyo](https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/16-most-surprising-facts-about-korea?r=95jqx&utm%5Fcampaign=post&utm%5Fmedium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false&ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Demographics of the New Bundestag URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/demographics-of-the-new-bundestag/ Last updated: 2025-03-26T09:19:03.000Z > The MPs taking seats on Tuesday range in age from 23 to 84\. The youngest is Luke Hoss, a student from the far-left Die Linke who has promised to give away most of his €11,000-a-month salary. The oldest is Alexander Gauland, a former journalist from the AfD who in 2018 downplayed Hitler and the Nazis as “just birdshit in our more than 1,000-year history”. > The gender inequality is lowest in the Greens, where women make up 61.2% of MPs, and highest in the AfD, where they make up 11.8%. Women are also greatly underrepresented in the centre right, accounting for 22.6% of MPs in the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and 25% of MPs in the Christian Social Union (CSU). > Lawmakers of foreign descent are also disproportionately rare in the new parliament. The share of MPs with a migration background – those with at least one parent who was born without German citizenship – is 11.6%, according to estimates from the nonprofit group Mediendienst Integration, compared to about 30% in the general population. [German parliament sits for first time with AfD as main opposition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/25/german-parliament-sits-for-first-time-with-afd-as-main-opposition?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Italy's Superbonus: Good Intentions Meet Poor Fiscal Planning URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/italys-superbonus-good-intentions-meet-poor-fiscal-planning/ Last updated: 2025-03-21T15:32:45.000Z > In the depths of the COVID pandemic, with the ECB committed to keeping sovereign spreads low and the EU fiscal rules suspended, Italy launched what would become one of the costliest fiscal experiments in history. Prime Minister Conte announced that the government would subsidize 110% of the cost of housing renovations. The “SuperBonus,” as the policy was called, would improve energy efficiency and stimulate an economy that had barely grown in over two decades. Consumers would face neither economic nor liquidity constraints. > The state would pay homeowners 110% of the cost of renovating their properties through an innovative financial mechanism: rather than direct cash grants, the government issued tax credits that could be transferred. A homeowner could claim these credits directly against their taxes, have contractors claim them against invoices, or sell them to banks. These credits became a kind of fiscal currency – a parallel financial instrument that functioned as off-the-books debt (Capone and Stagnaro, 2024). The setup purposefully created the illusion of a free lunch: it hid the cost to the government, as for European accounting purposes the credits would show up only as lost tax revenue rather than new spending. > The SuperBonus created the conditions for what Draghi's Minister of Economy Daniele Franco called “one of the largest frauds in the history of the Republic ” (Capone and Stagnaro, 2024). Contractors often inflated renovation costs; for instance, a €50,000 project might be reported as €100,000\. The bank would purchase the €110,000 tax credit at near face value, enabling the contractor to pocket the difference, sometimes sharing it with the homeowner. At times, [no work at all was carried out](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italian-police-uncover-billion-euro-tax-credit-scam-2024-05-16/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com), in which case, invoices for non-existent work on fake buildings were a perfect tool for organized financial crime. Fraudulent credits could then be resold multiple times in an unregulated market of state-backed tax discounts​. In 2023, authorities estimated that such [fraudulent activities had cost taxpayers €15 billion](https://pagellapolitica.it/articoli/truffe-superbonus-bonus-edilizi-15-miliardi?ref=karlsnotes.com). > By 2024, it was clear that the lunch was, of course, anything but free. Builders were going around offering to pay people money to renovate their houses. A scheme initially budgeted at €35 billion will end up costing Italian taxpayers [€220 billion ](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-italys-superbonus-blew-hole-state-accounts-2024-04-09/?ref=karlsnotes.com)(€160 billion of Superbonus + €60 billion for the 90% facade restoration credit and other 65% credits) — about 12% of GDP. Annual costs ballooned from 1% of GDP in 2021, to 3% in 2022, and 4% in 2023\. Only 495,717 dwellings would end up being renovated – meaning the average cost of the program was around €320,000 per home. This occurred in a country already burdened with debt of 140% of GDP, facing massive unfunded pension liabilities of over 400% of GDP, and whose debt is rated at [Baa3 by Moodys —](https://www.ft.com/content/71b02e1b-64db-4ae6-9ece-cae3aa786b2f?ref=karlsnotes.com) one notch above "junk" status. The cost dwarfs the €71 billion in grants Italy received from the European Union's Recovery and Resilience plan. Despite limited coverage in the international press, the Superbonus is easily one of the costliest fiscal errors in history. From the excellent '[Silicon Continent](https://www.siliconcontinent.com/p/how-to-incinerate-220-billion-euros?ref=karlsnotes.com)' by Luis Garicano and Pieter Garicano. ### Religious and ethnic groups in Syria URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/religious-and-ethnic-groups-in-syria/ Last updated: 2025-03-19T19:29:37.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/03/31468.jpeg) ### 5% in EU Innovation Funding Yields a 4,300% ROI URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/5-in-eu-innovation-funding-yields-a-4-300-roi/ Last updated: 2025-03-11T16:12:01.000Z Some observations from a [report](https://dealroom.co/reports/startups-backed-by-the-eus-framework-programmes?ref=karlsnotes.com) on 'Startups backed by the EU’s Framework Programmes', recently released by dealroom.co, dealflow.eu, and EU Startups: While only 5% of the EU innovation funding (about €12B) goes directly to startups, these same startups have raised an additional €70B in private capital and created €520B in combined enterprise value, representing a 4,300% return on investment. The EU Funding Programmes target physical tech and deep tech sectors at a much higher rate than European VCs, which focus mostly on software and SAAS. Physical startups that are EU-backed have a higher graduation rate than non-EU backed ones, suggesting that EU funding helps to de-risk investments for private investors. EU Funding Programmes have focused on strategically important sectors like space (28.3% of startups are EU-backed), semiconductors (27.5%), biotech (24.8%), deep tech (24.5%), and climate tech (22.3%). Over 1,500 EU-backed startups originated from universities and research institutions with Swiss institutions like ETH Zurich and EPFL leading. An interesting case study featured in the report is that of BioNTech which has received critical EU funding during high-risk years before achieving commercial success. This shows how public support can enable breakthrough innovation. ### An alternative timeline? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/an-alternative-timeline/ Last updated: 2025-03-09T19:35:49.000Z Who would have believed you if one year ago you told them that Syria's leadership would be [meeting](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250304-syrias-sharaa-meets-european-council-president-on-sidelines-of-arab-summit-in-egypt/?ref=karlsnotes.com) high level EU officials, or that the United States of America would be [voting](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7435pnle0go?ref=karlsnotes.com) with the Russian Federation, Belarus, the DPRK, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic among others? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/03/GlMt8LQWwAAp51U-e1741102279331.webp) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/03/INTERACTIVE-UNGA-VOTES-UN-calls-for-peaceful-resolutionof-Russias-war-on-Ukraine-FEB24-2024-copy-1740468832.webp) ### 4 years in German politics URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/4-years-in-german-politics/ Last updated: 2025-03-05T16:00:06.000Z They say a week is a long time in politics, let alone four years. This is how the political landscape of Germany changed between the federal elections held in 2021 and in 2025\. In 2025, the centre-left party SPD, lost its dominance in most of the regions it won in 2021, with very few exceptions. The centre-right CDU and the far-right AfD gained substantial ground over the SPD, with the Left party winning some of the districts in Berlin in the federal elections held last month. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2025/02/1000047055.png) ### Will DPRK casualties in Ukraine lead to change in North Korea? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/will-dprk-casualties-in-ukraine-lead-to-change-in-north-korea/ Last updated: 2025-08-11T12:15:59.000Z [*Originally published on The Diplomat Asia-Pacific Current Affairs Magazine*](https://thediplomat.com/2025/01/will-casualties-in-ukraine-lead-to-change-in-north-korea/?ref=karlsnotes.com) At the beginning of November 2024, [rumours](https://www.dailynk.com/english/news-north-korean-military-russia-deployment-spreads-border-interior/?ref=karlsnotes.com) of troop deployments to Russia started spreading among the residents of the North Korean city of Hyesan, on the border with China. Families feared that their own sons would have to fight in Ukraine, but without any official news from Pyongyang, they could not verify their worries. In a few days, the rumours spread from Hyesan to other regions through local merchants’ trade networks and border officials. The rumours proved to be correct. An agreement between Russia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), finalised in November 2024, saw the latter sending a reported 11,000 troops to the frontlines in Ukraine, with Russia providing them with supplies and a generous salary. While attention has been focused on the possibility of the North Korean regime acquiring new military and nuclear technologies, the domestic implications of such a deployment remain largely unexplored. North Korean forces are suffering severe casualties in Ukraine, specifically around the Kursk region where most of them have been deployed on the frontlines. [Ukraine](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Zelenskyy-says-3-000-N.-Korean-troops-killed-or-injured-in-Russia-war?ref=karlsnotes.com) and [South Korea](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/13/seoul-says-300-north-korean-soldiers-killed-2700-wounded-fighting-ukraine?ref=karlsnotes.com) both have estimated that as much as 3,000, out of the initial 11,000, have already been reported dead or wounded. This high level of military casualties is a result of several challenges facing the North Korean forces, including lack of appropriate training, especially on drone warfare, and them being treated as "expendable" and sent to "hopeless assaults" by the Russian forces. There have also been reports of suicide among North Korean soldiers, often to avoid capture by Ukrainian soldiers, in a culture that equates surrender to betrayal. This unprecedented loss of life in a foreign conflict raises the question of whether the regime in North Korea can afford to sustain such casualties while maintaining domestic stability. Historical precedents and the internal dynamics of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, suggest that even losses at this scale are unlikely to threaten the regime's hold on power, but the war in Ukraine could be the most significant test since the 1990's famine. Since the end of the Korean War in the early 1950s, the DPRK has from time to time provided support to ideological allies in foreign conflicts such as in Vietnam, Ethiopia, Yemen, Uganda, and Angola. Details of this support were often deliberately kept from public view, mindful of the potential domestic repercussions. The biggest military commitment for North Korea, since the war on its peninsula, was its assistance to North Vietnam. At the time, Kim Il Sung [authorised](https://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/uploads/body%5Fpdf/file/23/2%5FSatoru%5FMIYAMOTO.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) the deployment of up to 384 servicemen, comprising air force personnel, engineering experts specialising in cave and tunnel building, and a psychological operations group. This also [included](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/north-korean-pilots-the-skies-over-vietnam?ref=karlsnotes.com) an air force regiment composed of pilots and specialists to man two MiG-17 companies and one MiG-21 company. Vietnamese reports [indicate](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/publication/nkidp%5Fworking%5Fpaper%5F7%5Fbenjamin%5Fyoung%5Fnorth%5Fkorea%5Fvietnam%5Fwar%5Ffebruary%5F2019.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) that around 14 air force personnel died during the conflict, while North Korean sources claim 27 deaths. These [discrepancies](https://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/uploads/body%5Fpdf/file/23/2%5FSatoru%5FMIYAMOTO.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com), along with North Korea's long silence about its involvement in Vietnam, reflect the regime's tight control over information. The deployment of pilots during the Vietnam War in the 1960s was only made [public](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/publication/nkidp%5Fworking%5Fpaper%5F7%5Fbenjamin%5Fyoung%5Fnorth%5Fkorea%5Fvietnam%5Fwar%5Ffebruary%5F2019.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) in 2000, a pattern evident in other North Korean foreign military interventions. North Korea's current military involvement in Ukraine, however, presents unprecedented challenges for the regime's information control. Unlike in Vietnam, and Uganda, where casualties were limited and spread over a number of years, the scale of losses in Ukraine has been both massive, and concentrated in time and location. In previous interventions, the regime could have controlled information more easily, by relocating the affected families around the country or to Pyongyang. In Ukraine's case, moving thousands of families will inevitably reshape North Korean society, but also and more importantly, it will have an outsized impact on the military. The regime's ability to manage this unprecedented situation with military casualties is further complicated by the *Songun,* orthe *'*military-first' policy that was enacted in the 1990s, and which intertwined Party and military interests ever since. Kim Jong Un's efforts to secure the personal loyalty of the Korean People's Army further cemented his regime's control on the domestic situation, however this relationship could be tested by the scale of these losses. This concern is not entirely theoretical. In the 1990s, the VI Corps of the Korean People's Army were reportedly involved in an attempted coup d'etat against the regime. The coup was discovered and disrupted, while the leaders and those involved were quickly executed or arrested, and the Corps dismantled. The case was largely kept secret by the regime, but shows that even in a controlled system like North Korea, military loyalty cannot be taken for granted. Aware of these vulnerabilities, Kim Jong Un made sure to keep the public in the dark regarding casualties in Ukraine, with [families of the casualties only receiving limited details](https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korea-conceals-combat-deaths-troops-fighting-russia/?ref=karlsnotes.com). The spread of the rumours of troop deployments in November 2024 first travelled to North Korea through China-made cell phones, and then through internal networks. The regime was quick to [intensify its surveillance](https://www.dailynk.com/english/n-korea-intensifies-surveillance-of-chinese-phone-users-along-border/?ref=karlsnotes.com) of users using Chinese frequencies along the border, showing how quickly it can work when it recognises a threat to its control of information that could undermine its propaganda on the war. A senior military official inside North Korea told [Daily NK](https://www.dailynk.com/english/true-cost-north-korean-soldiers-deadly-reality-russia-war/?ref=karlsnotes.com) that the regime has been receiving casualty figures through the military command, with these being tightly controlled by the Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army. When asked how widely these casualty figures were shared within the military ranks, the senior military official revealed that the regime is preparing "indoctrination activities" to be delivered to the units that have been deployed to Russia "since authorities predict potential individual unrest or rumours”. Recognising the potential unrest that could result in disclosing the real number of fatalities, the regime is planning a number of events, "to maintain the military’s psychological stability" in a post-war scenario, designed to "evoke patriotism", according to this senior military official. The regime's attempt at controlling information has only been further complicated with the [capture](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/12/ukraine-war-briefing-ukraine-captures-two-north-korean-soldiers-in-russia?ref=karlsnotes.com) of two North Korean soldiers by Ukraine's special operations forces. One of the POWs had a Russian military ID card, a [common strategy](https://www.dailynk.com/english/true-cost-north-korean-soldiers-deadly-reality-russia-war/?ref=karlsnotes.com) by DPRK "to prevent and hinder enemy forces from gathering intelligence". Despite this, the SBU and South Korean intelligence confirm that North Korean forces have experienced heavy losses, and possible lack of supplies, with one POW claiming to have gone four or five days without food and water before being captured. Leveraging the strategic value of these North Korean POWs, President Zelensky [said](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/13/repatriation-or-a-life-among-enemies-what-fate-awaits-the-north-koreans-captured-by-ukraine?ref=karlsnotes.com) that North Korean soldiers "who express a desire to bring peace closer by spreading the truth about this war in Korean will be given" an opportunity to settle in Ukraine. As more North Korean POWs are captured and details of DPRK's military strategy in Ukraine become public, this information will likely permeate North Korean society and its military ranks. While the Kim regime seems to be currently adapting to the events in Ukraine and [address](https://www.dailynk.com/english/n-korea-intensifies-surveillance-of-dangerous-elements-in-border-city/?ref=karlsnotes.com) them accordingly, the growing awareness might force it to address growing domestic concerns. This might mean potentially having to abandon or reform the country's traditional ideology of self-reliance (Juche) in favour of more economic pragmatism, similar to China opening up to market-based reforms in the late 1970s. This potential transformation faces significant challenges. Even if the regime can maintain stability through economic pragmatism, a 'strategic Juche' is conditioned on a Russian win in Ukraine, as well as Russia's own economic wellbeing. If North Korea's involvement in Ukraine continues to be disastrous, it could undermine any potential benefits from its Russian alliance. The combination of military losses and fighting a foreign war could trigger domestic instability through growing disillusionment in both military ranks and broader society. ### Good things happening in Malta URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/good-things-happening-in-malta/ Last updated: 2025-01-07T13:11:49.000Z *Updated: 07/01/25* Over the past year, I have been gathering stories of progress and positive change taking place in Malta, which often get overshadowed by negative news. Here are some achievements to keep us optimistic about our country's potential: [Artificial intelligence to help predict and manage Malta’s water suppliesModel used by EWA and WSC forecasts future water demands![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-180-1.png)Times of MaltaMark Laurence Zammit![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/thumbnail/c9373a8d29369c8a63aca29cfeab293b06142a10-1735919520-44bd2593-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/article/artificial-intelligence-help-predict-manage-malta-water-supplies.1103271?ref=karlsnotes.com) [The student using AI to turn speech into sign languageMac Patrick Gauci believes the early-stage technology could help bridge the communication gap between deaf and hearing people![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of MaltaFiona Galea Debono![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/thumbnail/ca233d6ccf1a43129b542f3233d2866a9464c0bf-1732974282-29b10e23-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/article/the-student-using-ai-turn-speech-sign-language.1101813?ref=karlsnotes.com) [He was fed up waiting in line to recycle bottles. So he created an appThrough Botl, users can more easily donate their recyclable containers![](https://timesofmalta.com/img/icons/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of Malta![](https://cdn-attachments.timesofmalta.com/46f4ea3ebec9bf2d9d1bb7cd7f4a4478007c81eb-1729339336-363123a3-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/article/he-fed-waiting-line-recycle-bottles-so-created-app.1099779?ref=karlsnotes.com) [Hope under Cassola’s big tentAfter winning the support of 13,000 voters, Arnold Cassola has embarked on the creation of a new ‘big tent’ party for middle-of-the-road and progressive voters. JAMES DEBONO asks whether it can succeed.![](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/ui/images/icons/Icon-60@3x.png)MaltaToday.com.mtMore from James Debono![](https://content.maltatoday.com.mt/ui_frontend/thumbnail/684/400/12_13_arnold_cassola_2.jpeg)](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/national/129764/hope%5Funder%5Fcassolas%5Fbig%5Ftent?ref=karlsnotes.com) [Clay-based irrigation technology being tested in Gozo could slash water useResearchers test out SLECI system as part of EU-backed project![](https://timesofmalta.com/img/icons/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of Malta![](https://cdn-attachments.timesofmalta.com/9de6c8089045f5a6b7150a9b12df8b6019ff69de-1713350275-8d281527-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/article/claybased-irrigation-technology-tested-gozo-slash-water-use.1091104?ref=karlsnotes.com) [Airship company mulls plans to fly between Malta and GozoCompany has been in discussions with Transport Malta about their services![](https://timesofmalta.com/img/icons/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of Malta![](https://cdn-attachments.timesofmalta.com/eb0fd52305e79e72015c1e0842d49241287b836f-1711889457-248628a6-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/article/airship-company-mulls-plans-fly-malta-gozo.1090211?ref=karlsnotes.com) [Tal-Linja app will provide live tracking of buses from MondayTransport Minister Chris Bonett says update of Tal-Linja app will deliver live tracking of buses similar to what people can experience with food delivery apps![](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/ui/images/icons/Icon-60@3x.png)MaltaToday.com.mtMore from Kurt Sansone![](https://content.maltatoday.com.mt/ui_frontend/thumbnail/684/400/tal_linja_app.png)](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/national/128265/tallinja%5Fapp%5Fwill%5Fprovide%5Flive%5Ftracking%5Fof%5Fbuses%5Ffrom%5Fmonday?ref=karlsnotes.com) [Maltese students bag gold, silver, bronze in Italy robotics competitionThe Savio College students have been building their robots since October![](https://timesofmalta.com/img/icons/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of Malta![](https://cdn-attachments.timesofmalta.com/db87e4a72f653cabc51e4872e087f8b5d56b89d3-1711138624-4893b79c-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/article/maltese-students-bag-gold-silver-bronze-italy-robotics-competition.1089728?ref=karlsnotes.com#Echobox=1711177524) [Shark Tank boss pledges unprecedented €1.3 million for AI ‘traffic brain’AI visionary Alexiei Dingli wins over Mark Bajada with digital traffic brain that can analyse hundreds of traffic camera feeds and take instant decisions to alleviate traffic woes![](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/ui/images/icons/Icon-60@3x.png)MaltaToday.com.mtMore from Matthew Vella![](https://content.maltatoday.com.mt/ui_frontend/thumbnail/684/400/screenshot_2024-01-19_at_08.58.49.png)](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/lifestyle/television/127102/shark%5Ftank%5Fboss%5Fpledges%5Funprecedented%5F13%5Fmillion%5Ffor%5Fai%5Ftraffic%5Fbrain?ref=karlsnotes.com) [Editorial: Making pedestrianised zones feasibleFor urban regeneration projects to succeed existing traffic flows must be carefully studied![](https://timesofmalta.com/img/icons/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of Malta![](https://cdn-attachments.timesofmalta.com/f843356549e7dc8291206d95c90949b995638378-1704371244-2c7c64c6-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/editorial-making-pedestrianised-zones-feasible.1076286?ref=karlsnotes.com) [‘People Have The Power’: Andre Callus Reminds Public Of Its Strength Against Environmental DestructionMoviment Graffitti’s Andre Callus has reminded the public of the true power it holds when it comes to stopping environmental destruction.![](https://lovinmalta.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/cropped-fav2022-270x270.png)Lovin MaltaAna Tortell![](https://lovinmalta.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Ana-FB-cover-2023-11-15T185227.906-1024x536.jpg)](https://lovinmalta.com/lifestyle/environment/people-have-the-power-andre-callus-reminds-public-of-its-strength-against-environmental-destruction/?ref=karlsnotes.com) [Six international firms show interest in offshore renewables – energy ministryMalta’s first-ever national policy was announced and open to the public for consultation in August![](https://timesofmalta.com/img/icons/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of Malta![](https://cdn-attachments.timesofmalta.com/4d43782dd2531386b746fe2aaf59acce7ba93510-1698949105-999ee87d-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/six-international-firms-interest-offshore-renewables-energy-ministry.1065150?ref=karlsnotes.com) [Drones and AI roped in to help rid Malta of invasive plantsThe new technology will run its first tests at Għajn Tuffieħa Bay![](https://timesofmalta.com/img/icons/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of Malta![](https://cdn-attachments.timesofmalta.com/1362aec3b225afa23ad28afd87e74aea39e00a54-1697730560-24c8cfd0-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/drones-ai-roped-help-rid-malta-invasive-plants.1062141?ref=karlsnotes.com) [Renewable energy up 13% in 2022Energy from interconnector up 18%![](https://timesofmalta.com/img/icons/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of Malta![](https://cdn-attachments.timesofmalta.com/effa76c2b0a3240a8b9b9dd8ca0fe78e7790e8e7-1696497427-4b90b6ec-1200x630.jpg)](https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/renewable-energy-13-2022.1059327?ref=karlsnotes.com) [BCRS says it recycled 150m beverage containers in nine monthsHundreds fined for littering near reverse vending machines![](http://timesofmalta.com/img/icons/apple-touch-icon-180.png)Times of Malta![](https://cdn-attachments.timesofmalta.com/821ba4be1a6eb1aec2b3e6f11e6327beb202f758-1692798134-9aebb4d5-1200x630.jpg)](http://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/bcrs-says-recycled-150m-beverage-containers-nine-months.1051003?ref=karlsnotes.com) [A one-man civic education campaignWhereas when it comes to politics there is a general air of hopeless defeatism, when it comes to the deterioration of their own neighbourhoods everyone becomes very vocal and angry.![](http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/ui/images/icons/Icon-60@3x.png)MaltaToday.com.mtMore from Josanne Cassar![](https://content.maltatoday.com.mt/ui_frontend/thumbnail/684/400/whatsapp_image_2022-03-19_at_1.05.09_pm.jpeg)](http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/comment/blogs/124526/a%5Foneman%5Fcivic%5Feducation%5Fcampaign%5F?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Experts vs Prediction Markets on Assad's fall in Syria URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/experts-vs-prediction-markets-on-assads-fall-in-syria/ Last updated: 2024-12-10T09:25:16.000Z On 6th December, Project Syndicate published a piece titled '[The Global Power Vacuum Comes to Syria](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/syria-assad-vulnerable-from-geopolitical-developments-but-unlikely-to-fall-by-ian-bremmer-2024-12?ref=karlsnotes.com)' by Ian Bremmer, a world-renowned political scientist, and the founder of Eurasia Group. It had been 10 days since the start of the renewed offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria. The former Al Qaeda-affiliated group had captured the major cities of Aleppo, Hama, several towns, and was on its way to Homs. The offensive took everyone by surprise, especially the ease with which HTS took over Aleppo. Reports of Syrian Arab Republic army units deserting their positions raising concerns that the rebels might take even more territory, but certainly not Damascus, right? In his piece, Bremmer wrote about how HTS had been preparing for this moment for months. They took the opportunity with Russia's distraction in Ukraine, and Hezbollah's reduced capabilities due to their war with Israel. However, he also said that "*But as weak as Assad is, the fighting is unlikely to topple his regime*", and that "*Assad defied the odds 13 years ago when Barack Obama’s administration said that he “must go,” and he is likely to do so again*". At that point, few people would have disagreed with Bremmer. Assad's regime had fought an 11-year civil war backed by Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran. A few days before the fall of Assad, the Iranian Foreign Minister also visited Assad in Damascus, pledging support in countering the rebel offensive. Later we learned that behind closed doors, Tehran had informed Assad that it cannot send more forces to support the regime, but at the time few doubted that Iran and Russia would let one of their key allies in the Middle East leave without a fight. What is interesting is that on the same day, on Polymarket, a prediction market where users put real money behind their forecasts, the market on whether '[Assad remain(s) President of Syria through 2024?](https://polymarket.com/event/will-assad-remain-president-of-syria-through-2024/will-assad-remain-president-of-syria-through-2024?ref=karlsnotes.com)' declined rapidly from 78% to a low of 39% on 6 December, signalling what was to come. This decline was the result of a number of emerging reports showing that Russia did not have "[*a plan to save Syrian President Bashar al Assad and that Russia is unlikely to create such a plan as long as pro-regime forces continue to abandon their positions*](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-6-2024?ref=karlsnotes.com)". What made this an interesting market to follow was the volatility of the situation, the impact of outside state and non-state actors in the event, as well as the volume of the market, more than $7.5 million. On the events in Syria, Polymarket was a better news source to follow than most of the major news organisations. Overall, I'd say that this was a win for prediction markets, just as in the case of Donald Trump's election as President in November 2024\. This market demonstrated the power of prediction markets in incorporating new information, rapidly interpreting volatile geopolitical events, which could [prove a vital tool](https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/11/09/infofinance.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) in understanding fast-evolving situations. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/12/image-2.png) ### How to give feedback to your superior URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-to-give-feedback-to-your-superior/ Last updated: 2024-11-30T13:46:12.000Z [Wes Kao wrote an interesting piece](https://newsletter.weskao.com/p/how-to-give-a-senior-leader-feedback-without-getting-fired?ref=karlsnotes.com) on how to be able to give feedback to your manager or a higher-up in the organisation's hierarchy. She starts off by saying that you should only resort to giving feedback to a higher-up if you have exhausted all options, including making sure that you cannot solve the problem by yourself. If you really need to give feedback to your superior, she proposes the following techniques and examples: ### The 'Even more' technique **🚫** > **You**: “We might need to give guidance to new hires.” > > **Senior leader**: “You think I don’t know that I need to give new hires guidance? I obviously gave them guidance. GTFO.” **✅** > **You**: “We may need to give even more guidance to new hires.” > > **Senior leader**: “Hmm yeah. I gave them some guidance, but that probably wasn’t enough.” ### Using yourself as an example > **🚫** “You should try X.” > **✅** “I used to struggle with this, and when I tried X, it really helped.” ### Adopting "diplomatic, curiosity-forward" language Using phrases like these: > "We might want to try…” > “I wonder if...” > "Perhaps we could...” > “What are your thoughts on...” > “One approach might be...” ### Brig data and examples to support your point **Example 1: Guidance during projects** > **🚫** “We need to give more feedback during projects.” > > **✅** “I noticed when we reviewed the design mockups weekly with the client, they loved the final result. For this project, early check-ins could help us make sure we’re aligned before going too far down a certain direction and could prevent rework.” **Example 2: Setting priorities** > **🚫** “The team needs clearer priorities.” > > **✅** “The team made amazing progress when we all focused on the website update last month. It might help to have one or two clear priorities for the team this month that everyone can rally behind.” **Example 3: Training new hires** > **🚫** “We should spend more time training new people.” > > **✅** “When we were able to dedicate that first week to training Steve, he got up to speed pretty quickly. The bit of upfront time seemed to have paid off, and taking a similar training approach for our next hire could help them ramp up just as fast. What do you think?” You can read her explanation on how to better use these techniques [here](https://newsletter.weskao.com/p/how-to-give-a-senior-leader-feedback-without-getting-fired?ref=karlsnotes.com). ### How apps are designed for habit formation URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-apps-are-designed-for-habit-formation/ Last updated: 2024-10-15T16:30:06.000Z I recently read an [interesting post](https://uxdesign.cc/how-uber-eats-makes-you-think-you-want-to-order-food-c943a9dbfb93?ref=karlsnotes.com) about how platforms, in this case UberEats, use certain frameworks to form habits around their apps. The author, Max Matsinger, references the Hook Model by Nir Eyal. According to this model, habits are formed through four phases: Trigger, Action, Variable Reward, and Investment. I've highlighted the main points presented: ### **Trigger**: "*Uber Eats relies heavily on external triggers in the form of app notifications, promotional offers, and reminders. These cues are strategically timed to coincide with moments when users are most susceptible to ordering food. Imagine it’s 7 PM, and you’ve just finished a long day at work. You’re tired, and the last thing you want to do is cook. Suddenly, your phone buzzes with a notification from Uber Eats — 15% off your favorite restaurant. Do you resist, or do you hit “order” without thinking twice?"* ### **Action:** *"According to the Fogg Behavior Model from Dr. Fogg, action occurs when motivation, ability, and a trigger converge. If Uber Eats wants us to order food, they need to make the desired action — placing an order — as effortless as possible.* *Reducing friction and simplifying the ordering process is key.* *The app’s design prioritizes ease of use. With saved payment details, preset delivery addresses, and user-friendly navigation, the process of ordering food is streamlined.* *Research shows that minimizing cognitive load — the mental effort an action costs is critical in driving repeated behavior. By making it incredibly simple for users to order food in just a few taps, Uber Eats eliminates any barriers that might prevent users from completing their orders.* *Another common challenge in apps like Uber Eats is decision fatigue — the mental exhaustion that comes from being presented with too many choices.* *Instead of getting lost in endless scrolling, users are presented with personalized suggestions based on their previous orders, dietary habits, location, and time of day. Ultimately, making the decision to decide what to eat feel intuitive and easy."* ### **Variable Reward:** *"The concept of variable rewards taps into one of the most powerful principles in behavioral psychology: the unpredictability of outcomes.* *In the context of Uber Eats, variable rewards come in the form of fluctuating promotions and discounts. Users are often presented with time-sensitive offers, ranging from percentage discounts on their favorite foods to free delivery.* *When users experience unexpected rewards, their brains release dopamine, a neurotransmitter tied to craving and reinforcement. This surge of dopamine creates a positive association with the action that led to the reward, such as ordering food through Uber Eats.* *Over time, this reinforces the behavior, making users more likely to engage again. The unpredictability of these rewards adds an extra layer of anticipation and excitement, keeping users curious about what they might receive next."* ### **Investment:** *"Users contribute something valuable — time, effort, or personal data — that strengthens their commitment to the product.* *Behavioral research suggests that when users invest in a product, they are more likely to return to it, as personal investment creates a sense of psychological ownership.* *Uber Eats encourages users to invest by offering features that allow for personalization.* *Users can save their favorite restaurants and customize their preferences. Each time a user adds a restaurant to their favorites list or they are investing in the app, which increases the likelihood of future engagement.* *Writing a review is not just a personal investment — it enhances the overall value of the product and user experience. Each time someone leaves a review, it benefits other users by providing valuable insights, making the app more useful and trustworthy for everyone."* ### When was this photo taken? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/when-was-this-photo-taken/ Last updated: 2024-08-25T17:05:15.000Z Guess the year this photo was taken: 1911 Submit Guess Start Over A simple 'guess-the-date' type quiz created with Claude 3.5 Sonnet and photos from simpler times in Malta For reference on where some of these photos were taken, check [here](https://timesofmalta.com/article/now-malta-changed-150-years.982763?ref=karlsnotes.com) and [here](https://www.facebook.com/NationalArchivesMalta). ### Given Malta's lack of permanent freshwater rivers and limited rainfall, what methods did the ancient Maltese use to obtain potable water? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/given-maltas-lack-of-permanent-freshwater-rivers-and-limited-rainfall-what-methods-did-the-ancient-maltese-use-to-obtain-potable-water/ Last updated: 2024-08-17T16:02:21.000Z A [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/geography/comments/1etjcnt/how%5Fdid%5Fthe%5Fpeople%5Ffrom%5Fmalta%5Fget%5Fdrinking%5Fwater/?ref=karlsnotes.com) on Reddit on r/geography asked how the Maltese people historically managed their water needs, given the island's water scarcity. The question sparked an answer by a Maltese historian (u/bertthemalteser) who provided an overview of the traditional water management techniques used on the island. I'm reproducing his reply in full: *"Hi! I'm a Maltese historian! This is a really fascinating part of our history and a really important part of how our country developed.* *We know through archaeological findings that the first settlers could rely on the very few natural springs that there are, but then identified the qualities of Maltese geology - which is largely characterised by limestone - to excavate cisterns for rainwater collection and water storage. Megalithic temple complexes which date back over 5,000 years have rock-cut cisterns, for instance.* *Malta today has no permanent above-ground freshwater supply to speak of - certainly no rivers or lakes; but the key lies in what is beneath. Groundwater is basically the only year-round permanent supply of fresh water, and this is what was used in ancient times - and is still used today to some degree - for the population to supply.* *You've got two types of groundwater: the perched aquifers in western areas of the island, which geographically are situated higher than sea-level than other parts of the island, and sea level aquifers.* *Perched aquifers were more limited in groundwater quantity, but were at a much more shallow level than those at sea-level - which on the other hand were more difficult to exploit owing to their depth, but had a lot more potential.* *Later in history, water supply remained a key part of how Malta was shaped. The Arabs (appro 870AD to 1091AD) for instance are credited with introducing a lot of techniques to conserve water. For instance, we have records of how major villages were located next to newly identified natural water sources, and close to wells or cisterns. Analysis of place names from back then for example shows that there were 137 places with the word 'Bir' - which translates to 'Well' even in today's Maltese language - and another 87 with the word 'Ghajn' - which translates to spring - in their names.* *Farmers used various techniques even for irrigation, including the manual digging of vertical shafts known as 'spiera' to reach groundwater and then using an animal driven water wheel - called a 'sienja' (the j is pronounced as a y) - to get water to the surface.* *Water continued to be an important factor later: for example, when the Knights of St John constructed what is today the country's capital city of Valletta, there was an express order that every single dwelling in the fortified city must have a well and no house could have a garden, so to reduce water consumption.* *The Knights also commissioned a system of aqueducts in the early 1600s to supply the new capital and the towns around it. Plenty of those aqueducts and the monuments are still standing today, although not in use.* *The British who came to Malta in 1802 had to contend with increasing populations, and therefore increased water usage, and in 1851 the industrial revolution was harnessed through the use the first motorised pump system on the island in order to - for the first time - use the sea level aquifers in an organised manner.* [*Spectacular reservoirs*](https://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2021-01-29/local-news/Underground-reservoir-known-as-the-underground-cathedral-to-be-restored-and-reused-6736230571?ref=karlsnotes.com) *were constructed for water storage, while pumping stations also started to be built together with more modern pipelines to connect more and more areas.* *In 1881 technology allowed the first sea water distillation plant - a boiling-type plant - to be built in order to purify sea water - another significant milestone.* *Today, Malta relies on reverse osmosis for its water supply - a plant built in 1982 was for a time the biggest in the world in fact - and there's a number of these plants in operation today, meaning that problems - at least for the common people - of water supply are a thing of the past.* *If you're a real water history nerd, I recommend the recent publication* [*8,000 Years of Water*](https://agendabookshop.com/products/8000-years-of-water-a-maltese-story-of?ref=karlsnotes.com) *which is dedicated only to this subject!"* ### Vote share vs seat share in the UK's general election URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/vote-share-vs-seat-share-in-the-uks-general-election/ Last updated: 2024-07-11T08:40:50.000Z The 2024 UK's general election gave a large victory to the Labour Party, which saw its share of seats in Parliament increase from 202 to 411\. The media called it "landslide victory" for Labour, and a "drubbing" for the Conservatives, and they are right, the Labour Party received more than double the seats won by the Conservative Party. What was interesting to see was the share of the vote that all the parties received in the election vs the share of the seats that they actually received in Parliament. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/07/GRzUDa4XIAA7UkJ.jpg) The Labour Party experienced a large shift in parliamentary representation between 2019 and 2024, despite only a modest increase in popular vote. In 2019, Labour secured 32% of the votes, translating to 202 seats, or 31% of Parliament seats. Fast forward to 2024, and the party saw its vote share increase by just 2 percentage points to 34%. However, this small uptick in votes led to a disproportionate surge in seats, with Labour claiming 411 seats, equivalent to 65% of Parliament. Other, minor, political parties, Reform, for example, who received 14% of the votes cast, ended up with 1% of the seat share, just 5 Members, while the Liberal Democrats, who received 2% less votes than Reform, actually ended up with 11% of the seats in Parliament, or 72 deputies. Many have argued how fair and well-represented are the people of Britain in Parliament, but this is, of course, the [First-part-the-post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post%5Fvoting?ref=karlsnotes.com) (FPTP) voting system at play. In FPTP, the candidate elected is the one who received the majority of the votes, no matter the performance of the opponent(s). Take a look at the example below: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/07/450048390_984273073706782_527108598446629857_n.jpg) In South West Norfolk, former Prime Minister and Conservative leader Liz Truss lost her seat to the Labour candidate by a narrow margin of 1.4%. Many voters who previously supported Truss appeared to switch their allegiance to the Reform candidate, while an independent candidate secured 14.2% of the vote. Under the FPTP voting system, the thousands of votes cast for Truss, McKenzie, Bagge, and other smaller parties ultimately had no impact on the final outcome. The Labour candidate, having received the most votes, won the seat in Parliament. ### Generate your own junta name URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/generate-your-own-junta-name/ Last updated: 2024-06-25T15:30:47.000Z The 2020s have given rise to a new geopolitical concept - the '[Coup belt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup%5FBelt?ref=karlsnotes.com)', which refers to countries between the west and east coasts of Africa, in West Africa and the Sahel, that are prone to coups d'état. Since 2020, there have been about 20 coups d'état or attempted coups in these regions, often led by juntas with grand-sounding names like the 'National Committee for the Salvation of the People'. I created this tongue-in-cheek name generator to showcase the often exaggerated names that military juntas tend to use. It's meant to highlight the extravagant titles these groups often adopt. Generate Name ### The politics of flag emojis URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-politics-of-flag-emojis/ Last updated: 2024-06-22T17:53:49.000Z For years, tribes have used visual symbols to identify themselves and unite people behind shared values. This practice began with painted symbols and evolved to include flags following the invention of silk. Flags often tell the story of the nation state or group they represent, and change over time to reflect shifting realities. With the rise of the internet, flags naturally found their way online in the form of emojis, continuing their role as powerful identifiers in the digital age. Contrary to what some people think, adding new flag emojis is not as simple as creating a small-sized version of the flag. National flag emojis are based on the two letter, ISO 3166-1 country codes, which refer to an international code for states around the world. So for example, the ISO 3166-1 for Malta is 'MT'. These codes are also typically used in 'top-level domains' such as .de, .mt, etc. A non-profit organisation based in the US, the [Unicode Consortium](https://www.unicode.org/consortium/consort.html?ref=karlsnotes.com), is responsible for these types of codes and flags. In the 1990s, there were only ten flag emojis: 🇨🇳 🇩🇪 🇪🇸 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 🇮🇹 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 🇷🇺 🇺🇸, used by two Japanese mobile carriers. When the Consortium stepped up to ensure compatibility between carriers around the world, it was decided that the ISO 3166 would be used as the source for flag emojis. This ensured that every nation state recognised by the United Nations, gets its own flag emoji. There are exceptions as well - Antarctica has its own ISO 3166 code - 'AQ', and its own flag emoji - 🇦🇶! In 2022, the Unicode Consortium's Emoji Subcommittee stopped accepting new flag proposals. This decision was prompted by the growing demand for diverse flags, including [regional](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO%5F3166-2?ref=karlsnotes.com), and Pride flags. The Subcommittee cited the dynamic nature of flags and concerns about exclusivity as key reasons for this decision, [stating](https://blog.unicode.org/2022/03/the-past-and-future-of-flag-emoji.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) that flags "don't stand still, are constantly evolving, and due to the open-ended nature of flags, the addition of one creates exclusivity at the expense of others". It is now up to platforms, such as Apple and Google, to associate a flag tied to that specific country code, and update the design of the flag when there is consensus to do so. Conflicts emerge, however, when geopolitical realities on the ground change, but not everyone agrees with this shift. The ongoing controversy surrounding Afghanistan's flag emoji is one example. In 2021, following the [collapse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%5FTaliban%5Foffensive?ref=karlsnotes.com) of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the Taliban-led de facto government introduced a new flag for their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. However, many digital platforms continue to [display](https://emojipedia.org/flag-afghanistan?ref=karlsnotes.com) the flag emoji of the former Islamic Republic. The default flag emoji for Afghanistan, associated with its ISO 3166 code 'AF', will likely remain unchanged until a broad consensus emerges on the need for its update. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/06/regional-indicator-symbols-a-f-emojipedia.jpg) Owner: [https://blog.emojipedia.org/what-about-the-afghanistan-flag-emoji/](https://blog.emojipedia.org/what-about-the-afghanistan-flag-emoji/?ref=karlsnotes.com) This of course is an issue for platform owners because they would not want to get into geopolitical issues that could hurt them as a company. Microsoft encountered a similar problem during the release of Windows 95\. The operating system used official UN maps, which India disputed. As a result, India threatened to block the release of Windows 95 within its borders unless Microsoft addressed this cartographic discrepancy. On the other hand, changes in flag emojis that are not controversial, such as [Mauritania](https://emojipedia.org/flag-mauritania?ref=karlsnotes.com) adding a red band at the top and the bottom of its flag in 2017, are usually included relatively quickly by platform owners. It is therefore a very slow process for these platforms to change the flag of an ISO 3166-1 country code or regional/territorial places. There is another issue that could come up when platforms change the flag of a country. As flag emojis are based on the two-letter ISO 3166 code, any previous messages that were sent with the older version of the flag will show up with the new version of the flag. This could lead to confusion and unintended consequences for the sender. Something as simple as: "I support Afghanistan 🇦🇫", where a user is showing support to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (pre-Taliban), would now indicate support for the Taliban-led government. A more recent example that landed Apple Inc. in hot water, was the automatic suggestion of the Palestinian flag emoji when users typed 'Jerusalem' on their iPhones. This took place a few months after the [7 October Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7%5FOctober%5Fattacks?ref=karlsnotes.com), and of course did not go well with people who viewed this as an anti-Israel attack on a city claimed by both the Palestinians and the Israelis. Apple initially claimed the issue was unintended and promised future software updates would address it. However, the controversy escalated rapidly, prompting the tech company to [release a patch](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-68831685?ref=karlsnotes.com) within days. This update removed the automatic display of the Palestinian flag emoji when users typed 'Jerusalem'. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/06/GKwQ_V8WQAAfn-T.jpg) In the next few years, it’ll be interesting to see how geopolitics will continue to impact the world of flag emojis on our online chats. ### Surprising alignment of MEPs in the European Parliament URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/surprising-alignment-of-meps-in-the-european-parliament/ Last updated: 2024-06-11T09:37:26.000Z Last week, EU citizens cast their votes to elect Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) for the next five-year term. Many chose their preferred candidates or political parties based on their policies. However, once elected, some of these candidates often join political groupings that might surprise their voters. The larger the number of MEPs in a political grouping, the more funding, speaking time, and influential positions the group is likely to receive. Although there are some unaffiliated Members, most seek to join a political group, driven by explicit demands for allowances and positions. This can lead to unexpected alliances, such as a pro-Moscow MEP aligning with the Greens, or a [self-avowed socialist promising to join the right-wing ECR](https://timesofmalta.com/article/conrad-borg-manche-defends-decision-join-european-conservatives.1093578?ref=karlsnotes.com), if elected to the European Parliament. Here’s what the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5e340546-9dec-44b0-a76f-4e83d953764e?ref=karlsnotes.com) had to say about this: > “You form groups for money, staff, and power,” said one party official with a ringside seat. “For many, political friendship is lower down the list,” they said. > Few Green voters realised they were supporting a pro-Moscow Latvian MEP until she was accused of being a Russian spy this year. [Tatjana Ždanoka](https://archive.ph/o/dPgbE/https://www.ft.com/content/a5dcd2b0-e87f-4017-a018-ffded6f5f606?ref=karlsnotes.com) was a parliament member for 20 years as part of EFA, a band of regionalists that sit with the Greens to boost their numbers. The EFA ejected her, although she denies the allegations. > Sophie in ‘t Veld, a lawmaker who used to sit with the Dutch D66 party as part of Renew, is now running in Belgium for an unaffiliated pro-EU party called Volt. Volt would most likely join the Greens or Renew, in ‘t Veld said, but “you have some very rightwing parties in the liberals and in the Greens some very far-left groups that are green but not progressive”. > She said negotiations in 2019 for Macron’s Renaissance movement joining the EU liberal group prompted “screaming arguments” among the party leadership, not least because the French delegation managed what another staffer remembers as “a hostile takeover” by claiming all its top positions.The current president, France’s Valérie Hayer, attacked another Dutch party, the VVD, for agreeing a coalition deal with Geert Wilders, whose Freedom party is in the ID group, and said she would “discuss” their future in Renew. > Trickier still for Renew is that its second-biggest delegation will be loyal to [former Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš. ](https://archive.ph/o/dPgbE/https://www.ft.com/content/8c55645d-4ee2-42b8-b73c-a4dbff063de1?ref=karlsnotes.com)The autocratic billionaire was recently acquitted of fraud over his business’s use of EU funds. ### Lack of resources hinder African diplomacy in Washington URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/lack-of-resources-hinder-african-diplomacy-in-washington/ Last updated: 2024-05-28T13:42:30.000Z Politico has an [interesting report](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/16/african-diplomats-washington-column-00158231?ref=karlsnotes.com) on the challenges that African countries face in order to impact US politics. Many African countries do not have enough diplomats on the ground, or they lack financial resources to manage their embassies properly. The more startling parts of the report explain how some of the underpaid diplomats often take side jobs with Uber, gas stations, or as delivery drivers. > Many of their embassies have just a handful of diplomats. Those diplomats often are underpaid; some take side jobs in Washington such as Uber or delivery drivers, or even at gas stations, according to a current and a former State Department official familiar with the issue. > “Some embassies go months without getting their allowances because there’s no funding from back home,” one African diplomat said, noting that while some of the embassies host events, they do so “rarely.” ### How Sunday Scaries market their songs on YouTube URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-sunday-scaries-market-their-songs-on-youtube/ Last updated: 2024-05-06T13:49:06.000Z If you have been scrolling on YouTube Shorts lately, you might have met with this trending video format: Someone sneakily films their roommate/brother/neighbour playing around on electronic turntables in an unusual setting - on the bed, next to a BBQ set etc. The caption humorously suggests that this unsuspecting person is losing it/unemployed/just got dumped and has turned to DJing. The electronic song in the background drops right in the middle of the video. The comment on the video suggests that this is a spontaneous recording. One of these Shorts went viral with 5.4 million views. That's 5,316,300 more views than the number of subscribers (83.7k) on the band's YouTube channel, and that's just one of the videos 'Sunday Scaries' has uploaded. '[Sunday Scaries](https://open.spotify.com/artist/0PavAVTZWBEpaj4iJdKCyj?si=5-8aBHxnQP2ClOMZwngnaw&ref=karlsnotes.com)' is an electronic music duo consisting of Will Ezell and Alex Hein, who initially met online and are now based in Los Angeles, California. In 2023 the band achieved [significant milestones](https://bobbyhotel.com/2023/12/22/sundayscaries/?ref=karlsnotes.com), from signing a record deal, to heading a tour, and garnering more than 50 million streams. Although little is known [publicly](https://thedmonline.com/how-sunday-scaries-is-producing-music-while-thousand-of-miles-apart/?ref=karlsnotes.com) about the duo, their ingenious online marketing strategies managed to get them millions of views on these short-form videos, translating to millions of listens for their songs. This is not just on YouTube either, 'Sunday Scaries' have managed to rack up millions of views on other video platforms such as [TikTok](https://www.tiktok.com/@sundayscariesmusic?lang=en&ref=karlsnotes.com) and X, despite having a relatively modest following. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/05/Screenshot-2024-05-06-at-15-41-00-My-unemployed-roommate-does-THIS-all-day----unemployment--dj--edm--dancemusic--shorts---YouTube.png) Their viral videos feature everyday scenarios presented in a bizarre context, and include a catchy part of the song the duo want to market. Viewers inevitably inquire about the song's name in the comments, and the band, or a fan, replies with the name. Thanks to this brilliant marketing strategy, 'Sunday Scaries' now boast 1.9 million monthly listeners on Spotify alone, along with millions of views on other platforms. Check out this YouTube video, which has garnered 3.16 million views and 109,000 'likes' in the 11 days since it was posted on 25th April 2024: ### How did the Medici make their money? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-did-the-medici-make-their-money/ Last updated: 2024-04-26T07:05:37.000Z The history of the Medici family in Florence is closely tied to banking, even if many of the innovations in finance, such as the use of [double-entry bookkeeping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-entry%5Fbookkeeping?ref=karlsnotes.com), were invented before their time. What the Medici 'invented', or rather practised, according to Tim Parks in his book [Medici Money](https://bookshop.org/p/books/medici-money-banking-metaphysics-and-art-in-fifteenth-century-florence-tim-parks/8827538?ean=9780393328455&ref=karlsnotes.com), was an early form of the 'holding company'. This was due to the way the Medici 'head office' in Florence worked with their bank branches in other cities. Between 1435 and 1450, at the height of the Medici Bank's history, profits averaged around 19,386 florins per year, which would have been a substantial amount at the time. To put this into perspective, the majority of the citizens of Florence paid less than 1 florin in tax a year. How did the Medici manage to earn vast sums of money from banking, when lending money with interest was not only frowned-upon, but also forbidden at the time? A merchant interested in getting a 'loan' to buy goods and re-sell them for a profit, would visit one of the Medici Bank branches, in Florence or elsewhere. He asks for 1,000 florins, promising to pay it back in sterling in London, after travelling there to sell his goods. Once the branch manager accepts, the merchant writes a *cambiale*, a bill of exchange saying that he received 1,000 florins from the Medici Bank in Florence, and asks his agent in London to pay the same amount in sterling. This will be based on the exchange rate between florin and sterling in Florence, say 40 pence for every florin. The way the merchant writes the *cambiale* is very important. The only way to know that this bill of exchange is not fake, is through of a copy of the merchant's handwriting by his agent in London. There, once the handwriting is compared, the agent will authorise the payment to the correspondents of the Medici bank in London. The time taken to exchange this money is also crucial. Do not forget, that, legally, this is not a loan, as loans were usury, something considered as *the* sin in 15th century Florence. In order to ensure that cases like this do not become loans, but purely 'repayments', the Exchangers' Guild came up with official timings of how long travel would take between major cities at the time. Paying the amount due within the official time of travel, would amount to a repayment. Any longer and it would be considered a loan. In Tim Park's example, official travel time between Florence and London was ninety days. This meant that the merchant could not take longer than 90 days for the 1,000 florins to be repaid to the Medici in London. The merchant's agent in London pays the correspondents of the Medici Bank the original amount in sterling, amounting to 40,000 pence. Money has been 'exchanged', but how did the Bank make money? The Bank tried to speculate that sterling was worth more than a florin when the exchange is made. This, of course, did not always work - sometimes the florin is stronger and in that case, no bank would lend the merchant money requested knowing that it would lose money. What the Medici did then was to ask their correspondents in London to find a different merchant wanting to get 1,000 florins worth of sterling in London and pay back the sum in florins, back in Florence. If you're in London, 1 florin would be cheaper than in Florence, say 36 pence. So, this new merchant agrees to get their 40,000 pence at this rate, which means that he owes the bank 1,111 florins (40,000 pence ÷ 36 pence/florin = 1,111.11 florins). After six months — three for the first merchant and three for the second — the Medici Bank gains 111 florins over and above the original investment of 1,000 florins. Imagine this happening with hundreds of merchants each year, and you start to see how the Medici could afford all that art! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/04/Beige-Minimalist-Journal-Prompts-Circle-Chart-Instagram-Post-.png) ### Creating food from thin air URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/creating-food-from-thin-air/ Last updated: 2024-04-24T07:45:49.000Z The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the research and development arm of the U.S. Department of Defense, has funded a research project by a team of scientists from Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and other Johns Hopkins University divisions, as well as North Carolina State University and Meridian Biotech, "to figure out how to produce nutritious, appetizing food using water, air, and electricity, with minimal to no supplementation." > At the end of the [four-year, $15.4 million project](https://hub.jhu.edu/magazine/2023/winter/apl-creating-food-from-air/?ref=karlsnotes.com), the APL-led team aims to have a compact system that can fit in the back of a military vehicle and churn out a vanilla pudding–like product with a texture similar to Greek yogurt. That food will not only be tasty, the researchers promise, but also packed with all the macronutrients, vitamins, and minerals humans need to survive. ### How it works The system the scientists are developing uses "electricity, water, and engineered microbes to pull carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and trace minerals—such as magnesium, calcium, and iron—out of the air." > Next, an electrochemical process involving common metals like tin and copper converts the CO₂ into acetate. From here, researchers can trigger a chemical reaction or introduce microbes to convert the acetate into simple sugars like glucose. > Together, the simple sugars, nitrogen molecules, and minerals form feedstock. When specially engineered microbes eat this feedstock, they can produce macronutrients—protein, carbohydrates, fat, and fiber, which are the building blocks of food—as well as vitamins. This part of the process is something many eaters are likely already familiar with: fermentation, which also gives us many foods we enjoy today, such as kimchi and yogurt. > The team is also developing microbes that can produce texturing agents and flavor molecules. > DARPA has outlined two scenarios for the technology's use: In one, the system must fit on a Humvee and be able to feed a small military combat unit deployed to a rugged environment for 45 days. In the other, it must fit inside a 20-foot shipping container and feed 100 civilians for 21 days after a natural disaster or other humanitarian crisis. --- Read more: [Scientists at APL are creating food from thin airA revolutionary project could someday help feed soldiers in rugged, hard-to-reach places![](https://hub.jhu.edu/assets/themes/wphub/assets/images/icons/apple-touch-icon-180x180-5574144486.png)The HubSarah Kuta![](https://api.hub.jhu.edu/factory/sites/default/files/styles/soft_crop_1300/public/2023-12/idea-food-from-air-thumb.jpg)](https://hub.jhu.edu/magazine/2023/winter/apl-creating-food-from-air/?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Venezuela increases tensions in Essequibo URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/venezuela-increases-tensions-in-essequibo/ Last updated: 2024-04-10T10:15:42.000Z [Guyanese](https://www.karlsnotes.com/guyana-has-the-worlds-highest-oil-reserves-per-capita/) President Irfaan Ali has claimed that Venezuela's signing of the “Organic Law for the Defense of Guayana Esequiba” on 3 April, “cements Venezuela’s intent to annex more than two-thirds of Guyana’s sovereign territory and make it part of Venezuela”. According to the President of Venezuela the law is the continued implementation of the results of the 3 December 2023 [referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%5FVenezuelan%5Freferendum?ref=karlsnotes.com), regarding Venezuela's claim on the [Guayana Esequiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana%5FEsequiba?ref=karlsnotes.com) region. He added that the law “establishes the creation of state number 24, the state of Guayana Esequiba within the political and territorial organization of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela”. The law also rejects the validity of the 1899 Paris Arbitral Award and ICJ’s jurisdiction on this issue. Guyana believes that this is another step by Venezuela "to implement its plan for the seizure of our sovereign territory”, according to President Ali, who in a letter to the UN Security Council also rejected "[recent claims made by Maduro that the US has installed bases of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in Essequibo, calling it a “dangerous narrative”](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/04/private-meeting-on-the-territorial-dispute-between-guyana-and-venezuela.php?ref=karlsnotes.com). ### The Swiss approach to designing railway infrastructure URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-swiss-approach-to-designing-railway-infrastructure/ Last updated: 2024-04-03T18:41:42.000Z > [At Zurich station](https://sma-partner.com/storage/app/media/Dokumente/Netzgrafiken/2022-11-29%5FNGCH2023.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com), nearly all long-distance trains arrive just before the xx.00 or xx.30 minute, and depart just after. This means that every train makes a good connection with every other train. It’s easy, say, to get from Chur in the south-eastern Alps to Yverdon in the west of the country: the train from Chur gets into Zurich at xx.22, and the train to Yverdon leaves 8 minutes later at xx.30: long enough to get from one train to another without rushing, but short enough to avoid waiting around. > The Swiss approach, however, is about more than timetabling: it is also a paradigm for designing infrastructure. In the late 1980s, Switzerland began calling all trains at Zurich around the xx.00 and xx.30 minutes. However, the trick could not be repeated at Bern, the most important node in the west of the country, because the journey from Zurich [took 1h09](https://sma-partner.com/storage/app/media/Dokumente/Netzgrafiken/Archiv/NGCH-2002%5Fde.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com). > At the same time, the line between Bern and Zurich was becoming congested. This situation would be familiar to Britain in the late noughties, France in the late 70s, and Japan in the late 50s: the main line connecting your most important cities is full, so it’s time to build a high-speed bypass. The Swiss could have built a very fast line, reducing the Zurich <> Bern travel time by half an hour, to 39 minutes: useful for people travelling between Zurich and Bern, but it wouldn’t have made the connections at Bern any easier. > Instead, [Switzerland built](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail%5F2000?ref=karlsnotes.com) a slightly slower line, with the goal of getting Zurich <> Bern travel times to just under an hour. This means that trains leave Zurich just after xx.00/30, and arrive at Bern just before xx.00/30: both nodes get quick connections. '[All abroad!](https://springbett.substack.com/p/all-abroad)' by [Benedict Springbett](https://substack.com/@springbett?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Turkey's local elections URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/turkeys-local-elections/ Last updated: 2024-04-01T18:57:24.000Z An interesting graphic I found on [reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1bsxcwl/an%5Fimportant%5Fcomparison%5Fto%5Funderstand%5Fthe%5Fresults/?ref=karlsnotes.com) which shows how voting patterns in Turkey have radically changed over the past 13 years. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/04/turkey.webp) [AK Parti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice%5Fand%5FDevelopment%5FParty%5F%28Turkey%29?ref=karlsnotes.com), in orange, is the political party of Turkish President Erdoğan, while [CHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican%5FPeople%27s%5FParty?ref=karlsnotes.com), in red, is the Republican People's Party founded by [Mustafa Kemal Atatürk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa%5FKemal%5FAtat%C3%BCrk?ref=karlsnotes.com), and the main opposition party. [Other minor political parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List%5Fof%5Fpolitical%5Fparties%5Fin%5FTurkey?ref=karlsnotes.com) have also made several gains in the local elections held at the end of March 2024. The CHP has come a long way since 2011, winning the five biggest cities in Turkey, with many considering issues like the economy and inflation having been the decisive factors for the opposition's unexpected surge at the ballot box. ### International shipping meets geopolitics URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/international-shipping-meets-geopolitics/ Last updated: 2024-03-20T10:48:09.000Z Houthi rebels in Yemen have been targeting shipping going through the Red Sea ever since Israel started its military campaign in Gaza, in what they claim is a show of solidarity with the Palestinians. More specifically, the Iranian-backed rebel group are targeting shipping linked to Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Due to the way the shipping industry is built, however, it is not easy to identify the owner of a ship. [The Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/90c55ef3-90e6-4f68-af8a-aafe87f8744b?ref=karlsnotes.com) cites the example of a recent ship carrying fertiliser from Saudi Arabia to Bulgaria, which was sunk by the Houthis. While the rebel group claimed that the ship was 'British', it "*flew the flag of *Belize*, was partly managed by a Beirut-based ship management company, was on a voyage organised by another *Lebanese* operator and had a mostly *Syrian* crew*". The only link to the **UK** was an address for the ship's owner, which is a company based in the **Marshall Islands**. A lot of ships are registered with states that are often different to where the owner resides or has citizenship. This is known as '[a flag of convenience](https://www.statista.com/chart/29086/flags-of-convenience/?ref=karlsnotes.com)', which subjects the ship to maritime laws on taxation, safety and labour laws of the country of registration. Finding the owner of a ship is even harder if the owner is a shell company located offshore. A good book to read on this issue is '[Dead in the Water: A True Story of Hijacking, Murder, and a Global Maritime Conspiracy](https://bookshop.org/a/22778/9780593329238?ref=karlsnotes.com)', which covers the real life case of the oil tanker 'Brillante Virtuoso', and the murder of a maritime surveyor who found anomalies on a tanker that was supposedly attacked by Somali pirates. ### Albania accelerating its EU accession by 5.5 years thanks to AI URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/albania-accelerating-its-eu-accession-by-5-5-years-thanks-to-ai/ Last updated: 2024-03-06T19:03:17.000Z In a recent OpenAI [blog post](https://openai.com/blog/openai-elon-musk?ref=karlsnotes.com) on Elon Musk's lawsuit against the company, the authors make a reference to how OpenAI tools are helping Albania "*to accelerate its EU accession by as much as 5.5 years*". A recent agreement between the government of Albania and the AI company [allows](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/albania-to-speed-up-eu-accession-using-chatgpt/?ref=karlsnotes.com) the country to use ChatGPT in order to translate 280,000 pages *"of EU legal measures and provisions into*" Albanian "*and then integrate them into existing legal structures*". OpenAI tools will also help provide an analysis of the impact of these legal measures and provisions - something which usually requires a lot of time, as well as human and financial resources. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama later also announced that artificial intelligence will also be helping the country replace archaic services by local and national administrations, mostly in an effort to reduce corruption in public procurement. ### The Hardest Flag Quiz on the Internet URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-hardest-flag-quiz-on-the-internet/ Last updated: 2024-04-01T18:59:51.000Z Submit Start Over Correct: 0 | Incorrect: 0 ### Public Housing is Good Development Policy URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/public-housing-is-good-development-policy/ Last updated: 2024-03-04T10:01:23.000Z Around 950 million people in Africa are expected to move to cities by 2050\. They will need accommodation, 70% of which does not currently exist. [In this post](https://www.global-developments.org/p/leasing-like-a-state-or-public-housing?ref=karlsnotes.com), Oliver Kim makes the argument that while "public housing seems like a natural response to housing crisis, purely on the basis of rights.....public housing makes for good development policy too." The article references the experiences of Hong Kong, Singapore, and Ethiopia. However, I found the following section particularly interesting: > *When millions of people move into the cities for factory work, this naturally drives up rents, which risk gobbling into their budgets. But even a solidly neoclassical analysis will admit that these rents reflect no productive activity; they’re simply a reward for being lucky enough to sit on a valuable piece of land.* > *So what if, instead of private landlords, it is the state that owns the land? Rents can then be kept low, preventing housing costs from eating up the budgets of the new urban workers—in other words, real wages will be relatively high for a given nominal wage. Nominal wages (which is what firms see) can then be set at a globally competitive level, helping to build out a manufacturing workforce while still ensuring that those workers get decently paid—which, in turn, boosts their purchasing power, and the attractiveness of those manufacturing jobs.* > *Instead of a pernicious race to the bottom, you have a virtuous cycle of public services and economic growth supporting each other.* ### What percentage of territory is controlled by governments? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/what-percentage-of-territory-is-controlled-by-governments/ Last updated: 2024-03-01T14:00:31.000Z From [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/state-capacity?insight=most-countries-effectively-control-their-territory-but-some-do-not&ref=karlsnotes.com#key-insights): *Most countries effectively control their territory, but some do not.* *To protect their citizens against internal and external threats, uphold the rule of law, and provide infrastructure and other public goods, governments need to control their territory.* *This map shows how governments are doing in that regard, using data coded by country experts from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project.* *We see that most countries control all or almost all of their territory. In them, the government is recognized as the main authority practically everywhere and can assert its power — sometimes by force — over actors that reject its authority.* *However, some countries do not control large parts of their territory. They are concentrated in West and East Africa and Central and South America. In parts of these countries, insurgent groups, criminal organizations, or other countries are the main authority. In these areas, national governments often struggle to implement their policies effectively.* *Yet, this* [*used to be similar*](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/percentage-of-territory-controlled-by-government?time=1850&ref=karlsnotes.com) *in many countries that control their territory today. This shows that governments can increase the control of their territory.* ### The Tech Accord to Combat Deceptive Use of AI in 2024 Elections URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-tech-accord-to-combat-deceptive-use-of-ai-in-2024-elections/ Last updated: 2024-02-20T08:31:00.000Z At the recently-held [2024 Munich Security Conference](https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2024/?ref=karlsnotes.com), 20 leading technology companies signed a pledge "*to work together to detect and counter harmful AI content"* from interfering in democratic election being held globally this year, in which more than 4 billion people are expected to be voting. Adobe, Amazon, Anthropic, Arm, ElevenLabs, Google, IBM, Inflection AI, LinkedIn, McAfee, Meta, Microsoft, Nota, OpenAI, Snap Inc., Stability AI, TikTok, Trend Micro, Truepic, and X, signed the so-called “[Tech Accord to Combat Deceptive Use of AI in 2024 Elections](https://www.aielectionsaccord.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com)” The Accord, a *"voluntary framework"* has seven main goals: 1. Prevention: Researching, investing in, and/or deploying reasonable precautions to limit risks of deliberately Deceptive AI Election Content being generated. 2. Provenance: Attaching provenance signals to identify the origin of content where appropriate and technically feasible. 3. Detection: Attempting to detect Deceptive AI Election Content or authenticated content, including with methods such as reading provenance signals across platforms. 4. Responsive Protection: Providing swift and proportionate responses to incidents involving the creation and dissemination of Deceptive AI Election Content. 5. Evaluation: Undertaking collective efforts to evaluate and learn from the experiences and outcomes of dealing with Deceptive AI Election Content. 6. Public Awareness: Engaging in shared efforts to educate the public about media literacy best practices, in particular regarding Deceptive AI Election Content, and ways citizens can protect themselves from being manipulated or deceived by this content. 7. Resilience: Supporting efforts to develop and make available defensive tools and resources, such as AI literacy and other public programs, AI-based solutions (including open-source tools where appropriate), or contextual features, to help protect public debate, defend the integrity of the democratic process, and build whole-of-society resilience against the use of Deceptive AI Election Content. --- With the creation of AI models capable of transforming [text into a realistic video](https://openai.com/sora?ref=karlsnotes.com), the integrity of democratic elections taking place around the world in 2024, stands to be threatened. Four years ago, [I wrote about 'deepfakes' in Indian elections](https://www.karlsnotes.com/deepfakes-in-an-indian-election-campaign/), and how doctored videos could potentially alter the outcome of an election or even incite people to violence. Today's technology, just four years later, is much more powerful and poses the [same risks](https://www.karlsnotes.com/emerging-state-affiliated-threats-in-the-age-of-ai/). It's reassuring that technology companies have demonstrated a commitment to help defend election integrity, and now have a framework that could be followed. ### Emerging state-affiliated threats in the age of AI URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/emerging-state-affiliated-threats-in-the-age-of-ai/ Last updated: 2024-02-17T11:30:02.000Z This week, [OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/disrupting-malicious-uses-of-ai-by-state-affiliated-threat-actors?ref=karlsnotes.com) and [Microsoft](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2024/02/14/staying-ahead-of-threat-actors-in-the-age-of-ai/?ref=karlsnotes.com) stopped five "state-affiliated" actors with fancy names such as 'Salmon Typhoon' and 'Emerald Sleet', from abusing AI services offered by [OpenAI](https://www.karlsnotes.com/chatgpt-the-new-better-google/). 'Microsoft Threat Intelligence', a global network of security experts, "tracks more than 300 unique threat actors, including 160 nation-state actors, 50 ransomware groups, and many others", and based on information from this network, OpenAI disrupted services linked to: - Two China-affiliated threat actors known as Charcoal Typhoon and Salmon Typhoon; - The Iran-affiliated threat actor known as Crimson Sandstorm; - The North Korea-affiliated actor known as Emerald Sleet; - The Russia-affiliated actor known as Forest Blizzard. Microsoft says that its technology "has not identified significant attacks employing the LLMs (Large Language Models) \[they\] monitor closely". Despite this, they believe that it is important to "expose early-stage, incremental moves that \[they\] observe well-known threat actors attempting, and share information on how \[they\] are blocking and countering them with the defender community". If you're wondering on where the fancy names came from, Microsoft assigns a family name to a country/region of origin tied to attribution - Typhoon indicates origin or attribution to China, for nation-state actors. For other actors, the name represents a motivation. For example, Tempest indicates financially motivated actors, as highlighted in the table below. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/02/threat-actor-categories-lg.png) ### Should facial recognition be treated like nuclear weapons? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/should-facial-recognition-be-treated-like-nuclear-weapons/ Last updated: 2024-02-08T13:38:45.000Z Just finished reading the book '[Your Face Belongs to Us](https://bookshop.org/a/22778/9780593448564?ref=karlsnotes.com)' which uses the story of the US tech company [Clearview AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clearview%5FAI?ref=karlsnotes.com), to inform the reader on the evolution of facial recognition technology; starting from Aristotle's theories on the 'true face', and ending with Silicon Valley's current attempts to perfect this technology. What really grabbed my attention was the part where the author, Kashmir Hill, speaks with digital rights activist Evan Greer of the [Fight for the Future](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight%5Ffor%5Fthe%5FFuture?ref=karlsnotes.com) non-profit. According to Greer: > "we should think about face recognition the way we do about nuclear or biological weapons. It's a technology that has such a profound potential to erode the very fabric of human society that any potential benefits are outweighed by the inevitable harms." On the [campaign](https://www.banfacialrecognition.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com) website, Fight for the Future elaborates: > Silicon Valley lobbyists are disingenuously calling for regulation of facial recognition so they can continue to profit by rapidly spreading this surveillance dragnet. They’re trying to avoid the real debate: whether technology this dangerous should even exist. Industry-friendly and government-friendly oversight will not fix the dangers inherent in law enforcement’s discriminatory use of facial recognition: we need an all-out ban. So should we treat facial recognition like nuclear weapons? Should we have international treaties that govern, or even ban, the use of this technology, like the '[*Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty%5Fon%5Fthe%5FProhibition%5Fof%5FNuclear%5FWeapons?ref=karlsnotes.com)' does for nuclear weapons? Or should we aim for an '[IAEA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International%5FAtomic%5FEnergy%5FAgency?ref=karlsnotes.com) for facial recognition', as [some](https://www.reuters.com/technology/un-chief-backs-idea-global-ai-watchdog-like-nuclear-agency-2023-06-12/?ref=karlsnotes.com) have suggested we do for AI, to put up safeguards and ensure that this technology is used for good? Can we even compare building nuclear weapons, which requires physical material, to using facial recognition? I don't have the answers for these questions but I found the comparison put forward by Greer interesting. ### States that explored nuclear weapons URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/states-that-explored-nuclear-weapons/ Last updated: 2024-02-05T11:30:42.000Z Today, only nine countries possess nuclear bombs. This outcome was not inevitable, as technology for building them rapidly spread all over the world, enabling countries with limited GDP to develop a bomb given sufficient dedication and resources. Since the 1940s, many countries have attempted to do so, but most ultimately chose not to pursue nuclear bomb after carefully weighing the advantages and disadvantages of military nuclear programmes. The quotes below, taken from '[The Puzzle of Non-Proliferation](https://asteriskmag.com/issues/03/the-puzzle-of-non-proliferation?ref=karlsnotes.com)' by Carl Robichaud, shows how even the US believed that by the 1970's, 15 to 25 countries could have obtained 'military nuclear capabilities': > At that time, only the U.S., the USSR, and the U.K. had nuclear weapons, but the “physical ability” to develop the bomb was spreading rapidly. Many countries were planning or building enrichment and reprocessing facilities capable of generating bomb fuel. These capabilities were accelerated by widespread nuclear trade, especially via the Atoms for Peace program, through which the U.S. shared civilian nuclear facilities as an extension of its soft power. Starting in the 1950s, a dozen countries seriously considered or pursued nuclear weapons. Early movers included Sweden, Canada, and Australia, followed by many industrialized countries in Europe and Asia. > In a March 1963 press conference, then U.S. President John F. Kennedy warned that 15 to 25 states might obtain military nuclear capabilities by the 1970s. Author and former U.S. security official Peter Lavoy, in a review of declassified documents, [notes](https://man.fas.org/eprint/lavoy.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) that Kennedy “based this pessimistic forecast on a secret study that Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara had given the president one month earlier. In this document, McNamara expected that by 1973 eight new states might acquire nuclear weapons — China, Sweden, India, Australia, Japan, South Africa, Germany, Israel — and that, shortly thereafter, many more countries could go nuclear as the cost of acquiring nuclear weapons ‘may come down by a factor of two to five times." What's interesting is that Switzerland was the first country to start studying the possibility of building nuclear weapons, just 2 weeks after the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagaski. Its military nuclear programme lasted until 1988(!). Switzerland is now a signatory of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty%5Fon%5Fthe%5FNon-Proliferation%5Fof%5FNuclear%5FWeapons?ref=karlsnotes.com) (NPT), and in 2017 it came close to signing the [Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty%5Fon%5Fthe%5FProhibition%5Fof%5FNuclear%5FWeapons?ref=karlsnotes.com) (TPNW). ### Guyana has the world's highest oil reserves per capita URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/guyana-has-the-worlds-highest-oil-reserves-per-capita/ Last updated: 2024-01-27T07:48:14.000Z The magazine 'Americas Quarterly' has recently published an [article](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/can-guyana-beat-the-resource-curse/?ref=karlsnotes.com) highlighting how Guyana, a country in South America, now has more oil per capita than any other country in the world. According to the International Monetary Fund, Guyana can now, theoretically, reach a per-capita GDP rivaling Italy or Japan at the end of this decade. When the Guyanese President, Irfaan Ali, was asked on how the country plans to avoid the 'resource curse' that many other countries 'blessed' with resources fell into, he said: > “there is no resource curse; the resource is a blessing.....it’s a management curse, and we are doing everything to avoid that.” Can Guyana strengthen it [institutions](https://www.karlsnotes.com/why-state-building-is-important-the-case-of-haiti/), diversify its economy, distribute profits from oil to its citizens, all while fending off a [geopolitical challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana%E2%80%93Venezuela%5Fcrisis%5F%282023%E2%80%93present%29?ref=karlsnotes.com) on its borders? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2024/01/GEh_4-_XoAAHMkm-1.jpg) ### How much can a ship carry? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-much-can-a-ship-carry/ Last updated: 2024-01-23T16:30:47.000Z > These marks \[found on the photo above\], called load lines, show the maximum load a ship can carry. > Load lines owe much to a British member of Parliament named [Samuel Plimsoll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel%5FPlimsoll?ref=karlsnotes.com). Worried about the loss of ships and crew members due to overloading, he sponsored a bill in 1876 that made it mandatory to have marks on both sides of a ship. If a ship is overloaded, the marks disappear underwater. The original “[Plimsoll line](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/plimsoll-line.html?ref=karlsnotes.com)” was a circle with a horizontal line through it. The symbol spread around the world; additional marks were added over the years. > The letters on either side of the circle stand for the ship’s registration authority. **AB** is the [American Bureau of Shipping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American%5FBureau%5Fof%5FShipping?ref=karlsnotes.com), one of 12 members of the International Association of Classification Societies, which sets and maintains safety standards for more than 90 percent of the world’s cargo ships. > The marks and letters to the right of the circle indicate maximum loads under different climatic conditions. Salt water is denser than fresh, cold water denser than warm. Since water density affects ship buoyancy, different conditions call for different load lines. > **W** marks the maximum load in winter temperate seawater, **S** in summer temperate seawater, **T** in tropical seawater, **F** in fresh water, and **TF** in tropical fresh water, like that of the Amazon River. Taken from: [The Secret Language of Ships | Hakai MagazineSigns and symbols on the sides of ships tell stories about an industry few outsiders understand.![](https://hakaimagazine.com/wp-content/themes/HakaiMagazine/favicons/apple-touch-icon-180x180.png)Hakai MagazineHakai Magazine![](https://hakaimagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/facebook-reading-ships.jpg)](https://hakaimagazine.com/videos-visuals/the-secret-language-of-ships/?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Lee Kuan Yew on Malta URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/lee-kuan-yew-on-malta/ Last updated: 2024-02-07T15:43:40.000Z Lee Kuan Yew, the founder of modern-day Singapore, visited Malta in 1967 looking to assess how the country had faired since the rundown of British forces following Malta's independence in 1964\. At the time, the British were also looking to leave Singapore and, just like Malta, Singapore's economy was heavily based on British military expenditure. Unfortunately, Lee Kuan Yew did not like what he called Maltese “dependency” on British aid, as he himself wrote in his autobiography '[From Third World to First](https://bookshop.org/a/22778/9780060197766?ref=karlsnotes.com)': > The loss of British military expenditure between 1968 and 1971 was a blow to our economy. It was some 20 percent of our GDP, providing over 30,000 jobs in direct employment and another 40,000 in support services. I was determined that our attitude to British aid, indeed any aid, should be the opposite of Malta's. When I visited Malta in 1967 to see how it had sorted out its problems after the rundown of the British forces, I was astounded. The Suez Canal had been closed as a result of the Arab Israeli Six-Day War three months earlier, in June. Ships were no longer going through the Canal, hence the dockyard in Malta was closed, but dockworkers on full pay were playing water polo in the dry dock which they had filled with water! > I was shaken by their aid dependency, banking on continuing charity from the British. The British had given fairly generous redundancy payments, including five weeks' salary for each year of service, and had also covered the cost of three months' retraining in Maltese government institutions. This nurtured a sense of dependency, not a spirit of self-reliance. ### In Russia, power is a big beast. In Switzerland power is a kitten... URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/in-russia-power-is-a-big-beast-in-switzerland-power-is-a-kitten/ Last updated: 2024-02-05T11:29:42.000Z In a Financial Times [interview](https://www.ft.com/content/52829a84-282d-4298-ac27-52d1255ddf91?ref=karlsnotes.com), author Giuliano da Empoli, remarked: > “In Russia, power is a big beast. In Switzerland power is a kitten, and it’s been domesticated. Through history, it’s been diluted, distributed, at local level and through referendums. Swiss politicians are boring. That’s quite a good thing. The more spectacular a political system, the worse it is, in many ways.” ### Top posts of 2023 URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/top-posts-of-2023/ Last updated: 2023-12-28T16:16:17.000Z Another year has come to an end, and I wanted to share five articles that did particularly well with readers in 2023\. These articles cover a range of topics, from technology to geopolitics, and personal development. I am grateful for all the readers who visited karlsnotes.com, shared feedback, and supported my work. I look forward to sharing more insights with you next year. Hope you have an even better year in 2024\. Happy New Year! 🎉 --- ### How Zalando uses AI to make your shopping experience better [How Zalando uses AI to make your shopping experience better‘Europe’s most fashionable tech company’, has been digitising fashion in Europe by connecting fashion and technology through AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w256h256/2021/12/K.png)Karl's NotesKarl![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w1200/2022/05/Karls-Notes.png)](https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-zalando-uses-ai-to-make-your-shopping-experience-better/) ### The towns built by Mussolini and their political legacy [The towns built by Mussolini and their political legacyThe creation of these new towns served only one purpose for the Fascist government – showing that Fascism works![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w256h256/2021/12/K.png)Karl's NotesKarl![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w1200/2021/12/towns-built-by-Mussolini-and-their-political-legacy.png)](https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-towns-built-by-mussolini-and-their-political-legacy/) ### How to start your own country in four steps [How to start your own country in four stepsOn 16th June 2014, Jeremiah Heaton declared 2,060km2 of arid land in Africa as the Kingdom of North Sudan![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w256h256/2021/12/K.png)Karl's NotesKarl![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w1200/wordpress/2021/02/Start-your-own-country1.png)](https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-to-start-your-own-country-in-four-steps/) ### Why state-building is important: the case of Haiti [Why state-building is important: the case of HaitiThe US intervention in 2004, and the UN stabilisation mission, did little to strengthen the institutions and ensure a future stable Haitian administration![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w256h256/2021/12/K.png)Karl's NotesKarl![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w1200/2023/10/18haiti-superJumbo-v2-1.webp)](https://www.karlsnotes.com/why-state-building-is-important-the-case-of-haiti/) ### The Barack Obama technique for making tough decisions [The Barack Obama technique for making tough decisionsWhile he still could not be certain of the consequences, he would at least be confident that he did the right thing based on what he knew at the time.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w256h256/2021/12/K.png)Karl's NotesKarl![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/size/w1200/2022/01/Karls-Notes-2-.png)](https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-barack-obama-technique-for-making-tough-decisions/) ## Sign up for Karl's Notes Notes about society and a better future. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### The world is run by those who show up URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-world-is-run-by-those-who-show-up/ Last updated: 2023-12-28T07:24:37.000Z A Reddit [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/pbgeqo/comment/hadqka9/?ref=karlsnotes.com) discussing an article on long-shot replacements for Governor of California during the [2021 recall election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%5FCalifornia%5Fgubernatorial%5Frecall%5Felection?ref=karlsnotes.com), explains how an individual can have a much larger impact without having to run for office. The author says that they worked "as an advisor to 3 different (Australian) Senators", so some examples may not apply everywhere, but as a general rule, I think its quite spot on. I'm reproducing the comment in full below. --- *There's actually much lower cost/higher reward forms of political involvement than this. Spending a quarter million on a longshot campaign for Governor where even if you win you have no institutional support and probably get replaced after a year comes quite a long way down the list in terms of cost-effective political investments.* *I would say if you want to maximise political impact-for-effort, the best method is probably:* 1. **Form a lobby group*. You can literally do this with a handful of friends. Give yourselves some sort of name that sounds like you might represent someone, appoint people office holders, adopt a constitution. The group doesn't need to do anything, it exists purely for you to be its representative.* 2. **Call up politician's offices and ask for appointments* to express your concerns about some bill that's coming up. Some will meet with you, some will have their advisors meet with you, some will ignore you. But you'll get a much higher strike rate than you expect.* 3. **Take the meetings, sit down with legislators or advisors*, tell them what you like or don't like about the proposed law and how you would like to see it changed. Literally no one will ask how many people you actually represent or why they should listen to you.* 4. *Most importantly, *rinse and repeat*. Find any opportunity you can to call around and ask for new meetings. You will build relationships over time, and legislators will learn and begin to internalise your concerns.* *Why this works:* *Politicians and political advisors spend a large percentage of their time having meetings with concerned interest groups. You're not asking them to take time out of their normal schedule to talk with you, you're slotting into their normal operations. It's not at all hard to get a meeting. I've seen professional lobbyists who make careers from "getting access" for corporate clients. It's pure grift, the client could have just called and asked for the meeting directly.* *Politicians use the number of times people come and meet with them over an issue as a rough proxy for how important that issue is. Just by repeatedly badgering them on X issue, you can create an impression that people really care about X.* *Politicians get most of their claims and talking points from interest groups (which is a part of why they so often say things that are so misleading). They do very little research of their own. There is no better way to put the salient facts in front of them, or for those facts to become a part of the public debate.* *Politicians are like normal people in that they have a selection of issues they care passionately about, and then there's a whole bunch of things they don't have any opinion on. If you show up and tell them what they should think about an issue they previously hadn't thought about much and can express yourself clearly and convincingly, there's a high chance you can get them to agree with you!* *Most lobbyists are pretty bad at lobbying! The basic strategy of "Get as many meetings as you can" is very effective and very rarely utilised! The best lobbyists I've seen are Industry Super, who took the opportunity to call me up not only every time a bill impacting the superannuation industry was proposed, but also at every stage of the drafting process and when amendments were being drafted and circulated. Now, they represent a group of funds that manages literally trillions of dollars of investments, but their main lobbying strategy is one that can be replicated by anyone - it costs no money, only time.* *There's a saying in politics - "*The world is run by those who show up*". It's absolutely true.* --- ## Sign up for Karl's Notes Notes about society and a better future. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### The football match that started a war URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-football-match-that-started-a-war/ Last updated: 2023-12-17T19:31:27.000Z The Salvadorean national football team arrived in Tegucigalpa, [Honduras](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honduras?ref=karlsnotes.com) on 7th June 1969, ready for the first of three football matches that could qualify them for the [1970 World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970%5FFIFA%5FWorld%5FCup?ref=karlsnotes.com). They spent a restless night in a hotel in the Honduran capital, as supporters of the home team surrounded their accommodation, throwing stones at their windows, and honking car horns. They hoped to tire out the Salvadorean team so that their own team could have an easy win the next day. The trick seemed to work as Honduras beat [El Salvador](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El%5FSalvador?ref=karlsnotes.com), 1-0\. However, a young Salvadorean, Amelia Bolanios, shot herself using her father's pistol when the winning goal was scored in the final minutes of the game. Bolanios was given an army honour guard at her funeral, and the President of El Salvador, as well as the country's football team, joined the procession, claiming that her death occurred because she could not stand seeing her country humiliated. The second match between the two teams was held one week later, this time in San Salvador. The away team received the same treatment they gave to El Salvador while in Honduras, as fans threw rotten eggs and dead rats at their room windows. The tension was so high that the Honduran team had to travel to the stadium protected by the armoured cars of the First Salvadorean Mechanised Division to avoid confrontations with the local crowd, who were carrying portraits of Amelia Bolanios. During the national anthems, rather than flying the Honduran flag, the hosts flew a dirty dish rag up a flagpole, while also burning a Honduras flag in front of the away team's supporters. Honduras lost 3-0 to El Salvador, but while the team was escorted by the military to the airport, its fans were chased away to the border. Two Salvadorean supporters died, while hundreds were injured. The border between the two countries was closed a few hours later, and that night, a Salvadorean bomber flew over Tegucigalpa dropping bombs, while the Honduran military crossed the border towards San Salvador. The '[football war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football%5FWar?ref=karlsnotes.com)' had started and would last 100 hours. 6,000 people lost their lives and more than 12,000 were wounded. While the football matches were the spark that led to the four-day war between the two countries, there were several underlying issues that contributed to the conflict. Over the years, many Salvadorean migrants had moved to Honduras in hopes of a better economic future. In Honduras, were a majority of the land was owned by [large landowners and big corporations](https://www.calstatela.edu/sites/default/files/lorenzana%5Farticle%5F.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com), these migrants needed a place to stay, with some of them settling on illegally-occupied land, creating further tension with the locals. This led to a land reform law by the Honduran government, which took this illegally-occupied land, but not the land owned by the corporations, and gave it to native-born Hondurans in 1967. This, coupled with inflammatory reporting by the media in both countries, created the conditions in June 1969 which led to the war between El Salvador and Honduras. If you would like to read more about the adventures of one of the best foreign correspondents in history, Ryszard Kapuscinski, in Latin America and Africa, I would suggest reading '[The Soccer War](https://bookshop.org/a/22778/9780679738053?ref=karlsnotes.com)'. ## Sign up for Karl's Notes Notes about society and a better future. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### How the IAEA uses nuclear technology to control insect pests URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-the-iaea-uses-nuclear-technology-to-control-insect-pests/ Last updated: 2024-07-07T14:58:22.000Z The International Atomic Energy Agency ([IAEA](https://www.iaea.org/?ref=karlsnotes.com)) is often mentioned in the context of nuclear safeguards, especially when it comes to countries like Iran, and North Korea, or on the [JCPOA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint%5FComprehensive%5FPlan%5Fof%5FAction?ref=karlsnotes.com), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. The Agency is however also very much involved in civilian applications of nuclear technology. It has been on the forefront in assisting its member states in using nuclear tech to address health, energy, and water issues, amongst others. One interesting use of nuclear technology by the IAEA is the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT), a technique which was invented in the USA around 60 years ago. SIT allows for population control of insect pests such as fruit flies, tsetse fly, screw worm, moths, and mosquitoes, that destroy crops and livestock, and in the process undermine international trade and food security in several countries. In 2021, the Food and Agriculture Organization [estimated](https://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1402920/icode/?ref=karlsnotes.com) that insect pests destroy up to 40 percent of global crops and cost $220 billion of losses. The IAEA researches and develops various applications of this technique in its laboratories at Seibersdorf, Austria. It then shares its knowledge and expertise with member states through the Joint FAO/IAEA Centre of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, as well as the Agency's own technical cooperation projects, making sure that this is applied where needed. ### How does the Sterile Insect Technique work? In SIT, ionized radiation, which is when "[an electron is given enough energy to break away from an atom](https://www.arpansa.gov.au/understanding-radiation/what-is-radiation/ionising-radiation?ref=karlsnotes.com)", is used to sterilise a large number of male insects in a laboratory, where they have been reared. The insects are then released into the wild population, allowing them to mate with female insects which lay eggs but bear no offspring. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2023/09/nuclear_explained_-_sit.jpg) Adriana Vargas/IAEA This technique is different from the traditional biological control of insect pests, which usually involves introducing non-native biological control agents. SIT is an eco-friendly technique since the sterile insects do not self-replicate and establish themselves in the ecosystem, while breaking the pest's reproductive cycle, leading to population decline over time. The IAEA's Technical Cooperation Programme has successfully implemented this technique in numerous Member States, benefitting from the Agency's research. Through Sterile Insect Technique (SIT), these members have achieved significant agricultural improvements. [Panama](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/area-wide-integrated-fruit-fly-management-paves-the-way-for-increasing-panamas-fruit-and-vegetable-production-and-exports?ref=karlsnotes.com) and [Argentina](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/argentinas-newly-recognized-fruit-fly-free-areas-expedite-fresh-fruit-exports-to-china?ref=karlsnotes.com), for instance, have increased their fruit and vegetable exports. In [Senegal](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/nuclear-technique-suppresses-tsetse-flies-without-harming-other-insects-senegal-study-shows?ref=karlsnotes.com), the technique has protected imported cattle breeds that produce ten times more milk than local breeds. The cattle were previously vulnerable to tsetse fly attacks, which had led to reduced milk and meat production. **Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '*[**Subscribe*](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)**'.* ### The outsized role of commodity traders in geopolitics URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-outsized-role-of-commodity-traders-in-geopolitics/ Last updated: 2023-06-10T09:14:24.000Z Over the past couple of decades, large scale geopolitical events might have been the result of decisions made in tiny, sleepy, Swiss towns, rather than on the battlefield, or in capitals around the world. In the first half of 2011, Libya, on the southern coast of the Mediterranean, was undergoing its own Arab Spring. Armed rebels had just taken Benghazi, the second-biggest city, but they lacked fuel for military trucks in order to continue their journey towards the capital. They approached Vitol, a Geneva-based energy and commodities trading company that supplies enough oil every day to satisfy the combined needs of Germany, France, Spain, the UK, and Italy. 🔖 "The traders who control the flow of goods and resources are the new kings of the global economy, and their power is growing every day." Following a short visit to the war-ravaged country, the CEO of Vitol agreed to buy oil from the rebels, handle the delivery of fuel for their trucks, and extend them lines of credit. Vitol's political connections in Washington and London helped make the transaction as easy as possible, despite the international sanctions placed on oil exported out of the country at the time. The agreement was a turning point for the war. The rebels immediately took over a number of towns and even cornered Gaddafi himself a few months later, leading to the end of the first revolution. This is one of the examples mentioned in the book, 'The World for Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources', which examines how commodity traders use their control over the flow of goods and resources, to shape the global market and influence international relations, and how this impacts the environment, human rights, and global inequality. Commodity traders play a significant role in influencing geopolitics, because the prices and availability of commodities, such as oil, gold, and other natural resources, can have a major impact on the political and economic stability of countries. Throughout history, lack of resources and financing brought down empires, and while we routinely hear about the increasing price of commodities such as oil, wheat, or lumber, we rarely hear about those people and the companies that buy, sell and arrange transport for these commodities. Very often these traders become the decision-makers, sometimes unintentionally, of many geopolitical events. The fall of the USSR, called “the biggest closing-down sale in history" by the authors, ended up being one of the biggest moments in the history of commodity trading. Connections that were made during the Soviet period between traders, politicians. and oligarchs, kept the Russian state alive after 1991\. Even during the current Russian war in Ukraine, commodity traders have been [reported](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Commodity-Traders-Are-Helping-Fund-Russias-War.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) to have helped sell billions of dollars worth of crude oil and gas from Russia, despite Western sanctions following the invasion. Trafigura, another multinational commodity trading company, [distributed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/08/trafigura-posts-17bn-net-profit-fuelled-by-ukraine-war?ref=karlsnotes.com) $1.7 billion worth of dividends, following a very successful year, thanks to the volatility of the commodity markets as a result of the Russian war in Ukraine. While it is not known whether this will have a bearing on the war, it certainly helped Russia continue to fund its aggression in Ukraine. If you're interested in reading more about the world of commodity trading and its impact on geopolitics, you may buy 'The World for Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources' on Bookshop.org [here](https://bookshop.org/a/22778/9780190078959?ref=karlsnotes.com). *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* ### AI adoption can save up to $360 billion in healthcare costs URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/ai-adoption-can-save-up-to-360-billion-in-healthcare/ Last updated: 2023-02-12T14:27:11.000Z In the United States, using Artificial Intelligence (AI) in healthcare has been a debated issue in the industry for over a decade. A recent [working paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w30857?ref=karlsnotes.com) published by the National Bureau of Economic Research has found that the implementation of AI in healthcare could result in yearly savings of $200 billion to $360 billion within the next five years, without compromising quality or access. Apart from financial benefits, AI could also lead to improved healthcare quality, increased access, enhanced patient experience, and increased satisfaction among healthcare providers. The paper shows that while there are still challenges in adopting Artificial Intelligence, solutions are becoming clearer as more organisations embrace AI. To fully take advantage of these savings, the industry needs to ensure implementation of multiple AI-powered applications across various domains. This will lead to successful deployments of AI, that may serve as case studies for organisations looking to use Artificial Intelligence and possibly overcome internal resistance. Just like in other industries, AI has the potential to make a substantial financial and non-financial impact in healthcare, improving patient care while reducing costs. In the next few years, it would be interesting to see how Artificial Intelligence can help us save more lives, as well as free up funding in healthcare. *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* ### Why state-building is important: the case of Haiti URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/why-state-building-is-important-the-case-of-haiti/ Last updated: 2023-10-06T06:19:55.000Z Haiti has been in the press a lot lately. The country has been dealing with a number of serious challenges, leading some analysts to label the country "[a failed state](https://www.gzeromedia.com/is-haiti-a-failed-state?ref=karlsnotes.com)". The government of Haiti's recent call for an armed intervention by foreign powers, continues to cement this rhetoric, while armed groups, or gangs, control two-thirds of the capital, ensuring that basic services cannot be delivered. Since then, more than 96,000 Haitians have been forced to [flee their home](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/30/haiti-ambassador-usa-criminal-gangs?ref=karlsnotes.com), as [cholera](https://twitter.com/emilytroutman/status/1578029964682661894?s=20&ref=karlsnotes.com) and hunger run rampant. In Haiti, the US intervention in 2004, as well as the UN stabilisation mission that lasted until 2017, did little to strengthen the institutions of the country and ensure a future stable administration capable of meeting the demands of Haitians. Many of the world's most serious problems, including the ones we are seeing in Haiti today, are the result of weak institutions, which is why many talk about the importance of 'state-building' in developing states. The OECD [defines](https://www.oecd.org/dac/conflict-fragility-resilience/docs/41212290.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) 'state-building' as an internal process “to enhance the capacity, institutions, and legitimacy of the state driven by state-society relations”, which, in simpler terms, means the process of ensuring that a state runs more effectively. Three of the main pillars of state-building, are state-society relations, legitimacy, and administrative capacity. Haiti is failing in all three, leading its people to face worsening consequences as a result. 🏛️ State-building is an internal process "to enhance the capacity, institutions and legitimacy of the state driven by state-society relations" ### State-society relations State-building is a continuous process that both fragile states and stronger, more developed states go through, however in states like Haiti, this process is even more important and delicate. In stable states, people expect that if they follow a set of rules, such as paying taxes, accepting some restrictions on freedoms, and the state's monopoly on violence, then that state will provide security, social rights, and economic prosperity. These expectations, of course, vary depending on the social and historical contexts of where one is born. People born in Germany will expect different things from their government, to those that were born in Burundi, to those born in Singapore. States must ensure that they deliver these expectations and be able to manage any changes and shocks to the system without having parts of society resorting to violence. Resilient states do this by not excluding any social groups, because doing so often leads to a backlash, sometimes even a violent one. Excluding these groups, even if they do not have access to state power, might be successful in the short term, but ensures bad state building in the long run, creating the conditions we see today in Haiti. ### Legitimacy By ensuring that the governing authorities are legitimate in the eyes of the population, they will be better able to serve and deliver the services needed by the same population. At the same time, delivering these services effectively creates legitimacy for the authorities, creating a cycle that enforces itself. While legitimacy depends very much on the local historical and social context, and does not necessarily promote the democratic model, this is still one of the weak points for Haiti. A series of events that took place over decades of misrule, including France's imposed debt on Haiti after the latter asked for independence, have severely weakened the legitimacy of Haitian governments from the start. More recently, following the dictatorships of the [Duvaliers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois%5FDuvalier?ref=karlsnotes.com)' between 1957 and 1986, and the [assassination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination%5Fof%5FJovenel%5FMo%C3%AFse?ref=karlsnotes.com) of Haitian President Moïsein 2021, Haitian leaders further lost a lot of legitimacy in the eyes of their people. ### Administrative Capacity A resilient state cannot work without a functioning civil service and the ability to raising funding through taxation and growth, in order to deliver services such as security, and health services. In a paper titled '[The Imperative of State-Building](https://muse.jhu.edu/article/54670?ref=karlsnotes.com)', Francis Fukuyama speaks on the difference between the *scope* of state functions, which refers to the different activities taken on by governments; and the *strength* of the State, which refers to the ability of states to execute its plans and enforce its laws. According to Fukuyama, in state-building, ensuring the strength of the State should come before increasing the scope of state functions, and to do this, a state needs a well-trained, and a well-equipped civil service. This is something that Haiti severely lacks, and which was made worse when at the beginning of 2023, the mandate of the last ten remaining elected officials in the country [came to an end](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/10/haiti-no-elected-officials-anarchy-failed-state?ref=karlsnotes.com). While criminal gangs continue to wreak havoc in the Port-au-Prince and in the country, people continue to die of lack of basic resources and common diseases. All of this is leading to an [increase in support](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/around-70-haitians-back-international-force-fight-gangs-survey-says-2023-02-04/?ref=karlsnotes.com) for another foreign intervention in Haiti, despite earlier public disapproval when Acting Prime Minister Henry first requested foreign assistance in October 2022\. A foreign intervention brings certain risks for the UN Member States that take part, but also for locals, especially for those that remember the sexual exploitation and the abuse that took place. At the same time, it can bring much-needed stability and order to the country, and might be the country's last hope to prevent further spread of violence. Any intervention should ensure that it has the backing of the majority of political parties in Haiti, and is carried out in cooperation with local security forces and institutions. It should avoid repeating past mistakes that led to the current crisis. Haitians deserve a state that can provide them with security, personal freedoms, and economic opportunities, and this can only be achieved if local institutions are given the appropriate training and tools they need to re-gain the lost public support. **Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '*[**Subscribe*](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)**'.* ### Why is everything so hard in a large organisation? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/why-everything-is-so-hard-in-a-large-organisation/ Last updated: 2023-09-16T17:17:00.000Z A user posted a link to an article on Hacker News discussing the question '[why is everything so hard in a large organization?](https://graphthinking.blogspot.com/2021/09/why-is-everything-so-hard-in-large.html?ref=karlsnotes.com)'. I found a reply [comment](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28705227&ref=karlsnotes.com) by another user interesting. Reproducing it here word by word. *"It's hard because it's meant to be hard.* *Once you have a large org that's making money, you don't really know exactly why it makes money. Sure, there's annual filings and there's still the elevator pitch of what the org does. But the actual how of how it works is difficult to describe in causal terms: if team X or Y was not there, the business would do better/worse? How does this team interact with that? It's really a bunch of informal relationships between different people, and both the people and the relationships change over time.* *So what you want to do when you know the whole sorta-works and you want to keep it that way is you pour glue all over it. You try to formalize processes, you give people titles and you make hierarchies. That way you attempt to stop the firm from inadvertently slipping into dysfunction.* *The side effect is of course that everyone who works there can see ways to improve things, but they can't see a way to get those improvements implemented."* **Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '*[**Subscribe*](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)**'.* ### You have 4000 weeks URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/you-have-4000-weeks/ Last updated: 2023-01-16T20:43:15.000Z Based on an average lifespan of 80 years, we have 4000 weeks on Earth. 4000 weeks to spend learning, working, sleeping, travelling, enjoying our hobbies, doing sports, talking to friends or family, fall in love, and everything in between. Sometimes we feel that there is never enough time to do all the things we want to achieve. That despite all the to-do lists we make, there's still something that you have to do, but don't have enough time for it. In the book, 'Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals', Oliver Burkeman lays out the constant challenge that we face in finding time that doesn't exist, leading to more stress. He lists the following ten tools for embracing the 'finitude' of life, taken from [this tribute](https://leebyron.com/4000/?ref=karlsnotes.com) to the book. ## Ten ways for embracing the time you have left ### 1\. Adopt a fixed volume approach to productivity > Establish pre-determined time boundaries on your work, and make decisions in light of those limits. If your primary goal is to do what’s required to be finished by 5:30 you’ll be aware of the constraints on your time and motivated to use it wisely. ### 2\. Serialize, serialize, serialize > Focus on one big project at a time, and see it to completion before moving onto the next. ### 3\. Strategic underachievement > Nominate in advance whole areas of life in which you won’t expect excellence from yourself. Instead focus that time more effectively, and you won’t be surprised when you fail at what you planned to fail at all along. ### 4\. Celebrate wins > Keep a “done” list which starts empty and fills up over the day. You could have spent the day doing nothing remotely constructive, and look what you did instead! Lower the bar for what gets to count as an accomplishment; small wins accrue. ### 5\. Consolidate care > Consciously choose your battles in industry, charity, activism, and politics. To make a real difference, you must focus your finite capacity for care. ### 6\. Embrace boring and single-purpose technology > Choose single-purpose devices like an e-reader where it’s tedious and awkward to do anything but read. If distracting apps are only a swipe away they’ll prove impossible to resist when the first twinge of boredom or difficulty of focus arises. ### 7\. Seek novelty in the mundane > ...pay more attention to every moment no matter how mundane. Plunge into the life you already have with twice the intensity and your life will feel twice as full and will be remembered as lasting twice as long. ### 8\. Be a researcher in relationships > When presented with a challenging or boring moment with another person, deliberately adopt an attitude of curiosity in which your goal isn’t to achieve any particular outcome or explain your position but to figure out who this human being is who we’re with. ### 9\. Cultivate instantaneous generosity > Whenever a generous impulse arises your mind: to give money, to check in on a friend, send an email praising someone’s work, act on that impulse right away. If you put it off for whatever reason, you’ll likely not get back to it. The only acts of generosity that count are the ones you’re actually making. ### 10\. Practice doing nothing > When it comes to the challenge of using your four thousand weeks well, the capacity to do nothing is indispensable. If you can’t bear the discomfort of not acting you’re far more likely to make poor choices with your time simply to feel as if you’re acting. Calm down, gain autonomy over your choices, and make better ones. Credit goes to Lee Byron for creating this [tribute](https://leebyron.com/4000/?ref=karlsnotes.com) to Oliver Burkeman's book where the extracts above are taken from. You can buy the book from here: *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* ### ChatGPT: the new, better Google? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/chatgpt-the-new-better-google/ Last updated: 2022-12-12T12:00:02.000Z Some days ago, OpenAI released [ChatGPT](https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/?ref=karlsnotes.com), an 'AI chatbot' that is able to hold a conversation, “admit its mistakes, challenge incorrect premises, and reject inappropriate requests”. ChatGPT is a fantastic tool for anyone looking to have an engaging and informative conversation. It uses cutting-edge natural language processing technology to understand and respond to user input, making it an incredibly useful and versatile tool. With ChatGPT, you can ask a wide variety of questions and receive thoughtful, accurate, and timely responses. Whether you're looking for information on a particular topic, want to have a fun conversation, or simply want to pass the time, ChatGPT is an excellent choice. Most of the paragraph above was written by the model itself. I have been testing ChatGPT for the past week and can honestly say that this and future, more powerful versions, could be the next Google. Here are some of the best examples of answers from ChatGPT: > my job is now 100% automated [pic.twitter.com/uyk6PurvgH](https://t.co/uyk6PurvgH?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Turner Novak 🍌🧢 (@TurnerNovak) [December 3, 2022](https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak/status/1599138446055944192?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) > Next vacation planned ✅ [pic.twitter.com/shrMEAMhmY](https://t.co/shrMEAMhmY?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Tiago Forte (@fortelabs) [December 4, 2022](https://twitter.com/fortelabs/status/1599276225314590720?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) > I used to say “you don’t need to have a college degree to get a job as a software engineer. Just use Google to learn how to code.” > > But with ChatGPT, you don’t even need to learn how to code anymore to become a coder. Just copy paste from ChatGPT and you’re hired. [pic.twitter.com/OnYJUxZXi7](https://t.co/OnYJUxZXi7?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Michael Sayman (@michaelsayman) [December 3, 2022](https://twitter.com/michaelsayman/status/1599120254575161345?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) > The most underrated value add of ChatGPT: > > The elimination of recipe sagas [pic.twitter.com/nfaB7t4KaB](https://t.co/nfaB7t4KaB?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Steph Smith (@stephsmithio) [December 3, 2022](https://twitter.com/stephsmithio/status/1598920887029628928?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) This is not an example of answers by ChatGPT, but it's funny: > Students using ChatGPT to write a school essay and then taking credit for the A+ grade [pic.twitter.com/Tl51hyHN6d](https://t.co/Tl51hyHN6d?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Trung Phan (@TrungTPhan) [December 2, 2022](https://twitter.com/TrungTPhan/status/1598807184863023105?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* [Support Karl's Notes](https://donate.stripe.com/9AQ17a8yi8okchiaEE?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Estonia saved its citizens 820 years by moving public services online URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/estonia-saved-its-citizens-820-years-by-moving-public-services-online/ Last updated: 2022-11-30T17:00:58.000Z Estonia is a small country with a population of only 1.3 million. In [2005](https://e-estonia.com/story/?ref=karlsnotes.com), it became the first country in the world to allow its citizens to vote online in elections, and today 46.9% of those eligible opt to vote online. Almost everything in Estonia can now be done online – from filing taxes to signing contracts to ordering prescriptions. Only those that marry or want to get a divorce have to physically visit an office. The Estonian government estimates that going digital has saved the state and its citizens, 820 years in time and resources, and the country routinely places first in internet freedom, online services, digital public services, and cybersecurity. Estonia’s digital transformation is a model for other countries looking to improve the efficiency of their government services. By making it easier for citizens to access government services online, Estonia has saved millions of hours of time and millions of euros in financial and human resources. [What can states do](https://e-estonia.com/solutions/?ref=karlsnotes.com) to make it easier for citizens to access government services online? \- adopting Estonia's [digital ID](https://e-estonia.com/solutions/e-identity/id-card/?ref=karlsnotes.com) and e-residency program; \- creating a [single digital platform](https://e-estonia.com/solutions/interoperability-services/x-road/?ref=karlsnotes.com) for all government services; ([just not like this](https://www.karlsnotes.com/what-you-have-to-go-through-to-check-if-you-can-travel-to-malta-during-covid-19/)) \- developing a nationwide broadband network; \- making all government [data open and accessible](https://e-estonia.com/solutions/e-governance/government-cloud/?ref=karlsnotes.com) to citizens. *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* ### How to build an automated ecommerce store with Gumroad and Printful URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-to-build-an-automated-ecommerce-store-with-gumroad-and-printful/ Last updated: 2023-07-02T11:22:34.000Z Integrating a Printful store with your Gumroad account is one of the easiest ways to start a simple ecommerce store with automatic fulfilment. Gumroad is an online marketplace that allows you to sell and buy different services, including digital and physical goods. Printful is an online 'print-on-demand' service that allows you to print your designs on probably anything. It also offers a number of convenient, ready-made integrations that can be used with platforms like Shopify, Amazon, Squarespace and, of course, Gumroad. The idea here is to build an online ecommerce store that is as hands-free as possible for the owner. I use the example of a store I created, [PropPosters](https://web.archive.org/web/20230322212454/https://www.propposters.com/), as a case study. ### Sign up to Gumroad We first need to set up an account with [Gumroad](https://gumroad.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com). Once you sign up and choose a name for your Gumroad store, then we can start adding products. When you press 'New product', on the top right, Gumroad asks for details such as the name of the item you're selling, the type of product, and its price. In my case – selling printed posters, the type of product is 'Physical Good'. The price of the goods will depend on a lot of factors. I would suggest writing a random number to start with and then change it later after you have checked the total costs by Gumroad, Printful, taxes, and delivery fees. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/11/image-2.png) The next step is to add details about the product, in my case, the poster. There are a lot of details that can be adjusted for a single product. To start off, I would recommend adding a description of the product, a dedicated subdomain, and appropriate cover and thumbnail images. Under the 'Checkout' tab, we will also need to select shipping destinations. As this is a physical good, Gumroad would not allow us to publish the product unless we have a shipping destination. For this store, I decided that only items being sent to US and European addresses are allowed. This was based on the delivery costs involved as provided by Printful. Once you have filled in the necessary details, press publish and the new item gets added to the list of products on the 'Product' tab. ### Connect to Printful Now, in order to get orders fulfilled and sent to the customers, we need to connect our Gumroad store to Printful. There are a lot of automatic fulfilment places that can do the same, however Printful has a [ready-made integration](https://www.printful.com/integrations/gumroad?ref=karlsnotes.com) process for Gumroad that is easy to set up and allows you to start selling immediately. Press 'Connect Gumroad store' on this [link](https://www.printful.com/integrations/gumroad?ref=karlsnotes.com). Once you sign up for a Printful account, you'll see a step by step of how to connect your Gumroad store to Printful, as below. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/08/image.png) Every time you add products to your Gumroad store, these will come up on the Printful store automatically, however they will be listed as 'not synced'. In order to be able to sell, you will have to sync them by choosing the material being used to print on and the design itself. If the new products are not synced, the customers that buy from your Gumroad store will not be able to receive the product. For example, for PropPosters, I had to select the type of material I wanted the posters to be printed on – enhanced matte paper, 18 inches (45.72 cm) wide and 24 inches (60.96 cm) long. I then added the designs that I acquired from [Artvee](https://artvee.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com), which allows you to download high resolution posters that can be used commercially. This is what it looks like if your products are synced on Printful and ready for orders: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/11/image.png) While in this process, Printful also shows you the price you will have to pay for that product, excluding taxes and some other charges depending on the product you're using. Once you know how much the product costs, you should then factor in [Gumroad fees](https://gumroad.com/pricing?ref=karlsnotes.com), which depend on how much you sell, as well as shipping fees. Add a slight percentage as your profit and go back to your Gumroad store to list the appropriate total price. If you're opting for free shipping to your customers, do not forget to add these costs to final price. If customers have to pay for shipping, then you will need to list the shipping fees under the 'Checkout' tab on Gumroad. While you're on Gumroad, I would also suggest trying out the number of features that are offered by the platform. Depending on your preferences, Gumroad allows you to let customers choose the quantity of a specific item that they can buy, or limit the sales of an item to a specific quantity. You can also add discount codes, or send invites to your Circle/Discord to customers once they buy your product. That's it, you're done! You now have a fully functioning automated ecommerce store and can focus on marketing. *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* ### I created a map of protests taking place in Iran URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/i-created-a-map-of-protests-taking-place-in-iran/ Last updated: 2024-02-07T15:36:17.000Z I created a map using [Felt](https://felt.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com), that shows the locations of protests and demonstrations held in Iran following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. Not all locations are listed, but I'm constantly updating these as soon as they are reported by international media. **Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '*[**Subscribe*](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)**'.* ### Corsica's 253 year struggle for self-rule URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/corsicas-253-year-struggle-for-self-rule/ Last updated: 2024-02-07T15:35:31.000Z This year's prison attack on the Corsican nationalist Yvan Colonna reignited the discussion about Corsica's struggle for nationhood from France. Colonna, who died a few weeks after the attack, was found guilty of the 1998 assassination of Claude Erignac, a representative of the French state in Corsica. For many on the island, however, he was an important figure in the region's nationalist cause. The attack and the subsequent protests that took place are part of the 253-year history of the Corsican struggle towards recognition of their culture and language. In order to understand this struggle one has to start with the history of the island itself. In 1755, following hundreds of years under the rule of the Republic of Genoa, Corsican hero Pascuale Paoli declared the birth of the Corsican Republic – an independent country with its own Constitution, a democratically-elected assembly, and its own currency. The Corsican Republic remained largely unrecognised by most of the existing states at the time because the Republic of Genoa still claimed the island as its own. The declining Mediterranean superpower, however, was not capable of putting down the Corsican uprising of Paoli, and when the *de facto* Republic of Corsica won over the small island of Capraia from the Genoese, the latter had had enough. The Treaty of Versailles was signed with the Kingdom of France, settling a debt with the French by transferring ownership of the Corsican island to the French monarchy. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/09/Bataille_de_Ponte_Novu.jpg)](http://corseimagesethistoire.over-blog.com/2018/05/guerre-de-corse-bataille-de-ponte-novu.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) The Battle of Ponte Novu in 1769 Paoli and the Corsicans did not take this well of course, and just as they had been doing against the Genoese, the Corsicans tried to fight off the French, with some early success. By 1769, the French managed to subdue the new republic at the battle of Ponte Novu and by 1770, the island became a province of the Kingdom of France. This brief 14-year period remained engraved in the minds of Corsicans ever since, and the relationship between France and Corsica remains rocky to this day. While the French firmly believe that there can only be a unitary French state, with a single people and language, the majority of Corsicans believe that they are a nation of their own and prefer more control on local issues such as education and the local economy. There have been several efforts to achieve nationhood, some people choose violence, while others choose a more democratic route. Since World War II, different French governments made various changes to how Corsica is administered. In 1964, Corsica was attached to the newly-created region of Provence–Côte d’Azur–Corse, only to be declared a separate region with two different departments – *Haute Corse* and *Corse-du-Sud,* in 1974\. These administrative changes by the French government were aimed at addressing the economic challenges on the island, the number one grievance for Corsican nationalists, but the results proved to be limited. It was during this period, the 1970s, that a Corsican nationalist movement started to assert itself, calling for political change in the form of self-rule and protection of the island's culture and language, among a long list of grievances. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/09/20220813_131537.jpg) Corsica's mountainous landscape Language is one of the few things that unites Corsicans, and even then, due to the mountainous terrain of the island which made contact between different towns difficult, Corsican itself has various dialects. The language issue has been under pressure due to French nation-building, and sometimes put aside by Corsicans themselves as they move to the mainland in search of economic opportunities. At the end of the 20th century, only [one of every ten](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9780230105829?ref=karlsnotes.com) children spoke Corsican with their parents, and in a recent visit to the island I only heard a couple of older people speaking the language, while most spoke in French. Another priority high on every nationalist agenda, is the issue of clientelism that exists in Corsica, with political power divided between 'clans' or groups, supposedly left- and right-wing, centred around important families. These clans act as mediators between “[the Corsican society and the state](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9780230105829?ref=karlsnotes.com)”, and are able to use the economic resources of the state to placate their relatives and friends. Nationalists fear that these clans are an obstacle to autonomy or independence, as the status quo allows them political and economic power. In 1982, a newly elected Socialist Government in France instituted a number of reforms looking to decentralise power. This included a 'special statute' for Corsica which gave local authorities autonomy in the economic development of the island, as well as in education, culture, and social policy. In the following years, successive French governments continued to allow Corsica more control over certain issues. Despite this, it was during this time that a particular intense period of violence hit the island, mostly by the pro-independence paramilitary outfit, the National Liberation Front of Corsica (FLNC). The FLNC, which 'launched' itself with a series of bombings on the night of 4 May 1976, waged a guerrilla campaign against the French state for over 40 years. The Front, which is the most violent of the pro-independence movements in Corsica, has conducted hundreds, if not thousands, of bombings on French targets on the island, as well as in France. It claimed to be waging a war against [French "internal colonialism"](https://bookshop.org/a/22778/9781412980166?ref=karlsnotes.com). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/09/FLNC-sign.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/09/20220811_155159.jpg) Left: French village names on road signs are commonly sprayed over by FLNC supporters. Right: IFF (I francesi fora/French out) sprayed on a wall in Bastia, Corsica In the 1980s and 1990s, the FLNC suffered a series of internal feuds and rivalries and split the group into several offshoots, with the largest being the FLNC-Canal Historique (Historical Faction) and the FLNC-Canal Habituel (Usual Faction). This was also a time when violence increased exponentially on the island, with attacks being targeted not just on buildings but also on people that the Front deemed to be 'collaborating' with the French. This culminated in the 1998 shooting of the Prefect of Corsica, and the representative of the French government on the island, Claude Erignac. At the time, the FLNC denied responsibility for the assassination of Erignac, due to the large public outcry against this murder. In 2003, two days before a regional referendum that sought to unite Corsica into a single stand-alone department within France, the police arrested Yvan Colonna for the assassination of Erignac, who was later sentenced to life in prison. The referendum failed to pass, with supporters of autonomy and pro-independence groups saying that the measures proposed did not go far enough. While most Corsicans did not agree with the extremist FLNC and its offshoots, a certain level of distrust in the authorities, as well as elements of omertà, led locals to turn a blind eye to violence, bank robberies, and the extortion methods used by the group to fund itself. At the same time, one can still see pro-FLNC and pro-independence graffiti all over the island, some of them newly sprayed. One can also observe a concentration of these graffiti in Bastia, Corsica's second-largest city, and in the nearby towns. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/09/20220812_224323.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/09/20220811_144741-1.jpg) Several pro-FLNC and pro-independence graffiti can be seen in the heart of Bastia, Corsica. On the left, a Molotov cocktail is inscribed with the words "breath of freedom" Some Corsicans chose a more democratic path towards advocating autonomy, or even independence, and over the past 10 years they have been relatively successful. Since the 2015 French regional elections, autonomist and pro-independence political parties in Corsica have controlled the majority of the seats in the Corsican Assembly. This, together with the 2014 announcement by the FLNC that the group will be [ending their violent campaign](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/corsican-terror-group-lays-down-arms-in-battle-for-independence-from-france-9569569.html?ref=karlsnotes.com), was a significant moment for Corsica itself and for democracy. The result of the 2015 elections, was re-confirmed in the 2017 Corsican territorial elections and again in the 2021 French regional elections. These election wins bolstered the message of the autonomist parties, and the French government could no longer ignore their requests. After the 2017 territorial elections, the first Macron government had made it clear that while independence for Corsica was not on the cards, dialogue between the two partners was "[imperative](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/11/macron-corsica-dilemma-nationalists-election-gains-france?ref=karlsnotes.com)". On 2 March 2022, the stabbing of Yvan Colonna by an Islamic fundamentalist in prison, led to large, sometimes violent, protests all over the island. Cars were set on fire and windows smashed in the major Corsican cities, while the courthouse in Ajaccio, was attacked by demonstrators. Thousands of Corsicans took part in the protests and more than a 100 individuals, including police officers, were injured in the resulting violence. Even the FLNC [reacted](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220316-french-government-floats-corsican-autonomy-as-unrest-jolts-election-campaign?ref=karlsnotes.com) to the protests, saying that “if the French state stays deaf... then the street fights of today will quickly spread to the hills at night”. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/09/YvanColonnaBastia.jpg) Graffiti of Yvan Colonna following his stabbing in prison, next to the words "no glory, no shame: son of this land" The protests, taking place during the 2022 presidential election campaign, turned the already volatile situation into a critical one. As a result, the French Interior Minister promised possible 'autonomy' for Corsica, if the protests did not escalate further. This represented a significant step and a win for the autonomist camp, because the French Government has always rejected the idea that a part of France becomes autonomist. Despite this, Interior Minister Darmanin still emphasized that "[Corsica's future is fully within the French republic](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220316-french-government-floats-corsican-autonomy-as-unrest-jolts-election-campaign?ref=karlsnotes.com)”. The news was welcomed by various political parties on the island, including the leading political party in the Corsican regional government - [Femu a Corsica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Femu%5Fa%5FCorsica?ref=karlsnotes.com). Many, however, will be awaiting concrete action by the French government, before dreaming of an autonomist Corsica. At the time of writing there is little evidence that things will change with regard to the status of the island. The French government knows that giving Corsica more autonomy, will not be without consequences. The regional council in Brittany has already overwhelming [voted](https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/Practical/Everyday-Life/Brittany-votes-to-ask-for-autonomy-from-France-after-Corsica-statement?ref=karlsnotes.com) to approach the central government with the same ask for its region. The French government also does not want to give the impression that political violence can get quick results. In an [interview](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/01/world/europe/corsica-catalonia-independence.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) with the New York Times just before a huge electoral win in 2017, Gilles Simeoni, the leader of Femu a Corsica, said "half-jokingly" that "people are saying, ‘At least when we had bombs, they listened to us’". France is now walking on a tight rope - will it go back on its commitment on autonomy and risk escalating the situation, or will it adhere to its promise and risk the future of the French nation? **Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '*[**Subscribe*](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)**'.* ### How Zalando uses AI to make your shopping experience better URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-zalando-uses-ai-to-make-your-shopping-experience-better/ Last updated: 2022-07-06T18:27:27.000Z Zalando is a European company based in Berlin, Germany, that is equal parts fashion retailer and a tech startup. What started as an online shoe store in 2008, is now the continent's biggest wholesaler, delivering items to 23 countries and 49 million customers, from more than 5,800 brands. The online platform, which calls itself 'Europe’s most fashionable tech company', has been at the forefront of digitising fashion in Europe. Zalando combines fashion and technology by employing Artificial Intelligence (AI) to ensure that its 49 million customers get the best out of the 1.4 million products available on the platform, that would have otherwise been difficult to encounter. The use of AI at the company can be divided into two major areas; optimising logistics and fraud detection; and customer-related use, such as size recommendation, and personal shopping experience. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/07/image-3.png)](https://medium.com/zalando-design/a-designers-ai-learning-journey-dd3f3079a299?ref=karlsnotes.com) Zalando currently employs around [120 researchers](https://corporate.zalando.com/en/newsroom/en/stories/ai-and-competitive-edge?ref=karlsnotes.com) that work specifically on machine learning, with some of these focusing on customer needs and how to make their experience better using AI. According to [Vilma Sirainen](https://medium.com/zalando-design/a-designers-ai-learning-journey-dd3f3079a299?ref=karlsnotes.com), a senior product designer with Zalando, three of the main problem areas for a Zalando customer are 'combining separate pieces into outfits and that they are within their price range', 'feeling overwhelmed with the amount of choice', and 'not relating to the products they’re seeing on the platform'. Zalando has been looking to address these issues with the launch of the Algorithmic Fashion Companion (AFC) in 2018, a machine learning algorithm that identifies different items of clothing and makes suggestions for an outfit based on previous purchases by the customer. Zalando trains AFC from the thousands of orders its customers make each day, as well as through the 200,000 outfits created specifically by stylists from the company's own personal styling service called '[Zalon](https://en.zalando.de/faq/What-is-Zalon.html?ref=karlsnotes.com)'. This ensures that while most of the AFC algorithm is the result of repeated purchases by the customer, the human element plays a vital role so that customers are not stuck in a 'fashion bubble' of their choosing. Zalando CEO, Robert Gentz, himself has called the company's fashion curation process, "[about the art as much as it’s about the science](https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/technology/state-of-fashion-technology-report-zalando-robert-gentz-interview-retail/?ref=karlsnotes.com)". There are, of course, challenges that every fashion retailer and customer recognise when buying clothes and shoes online. Choosing the right size and fit of the item is not always as easy as when you are trying the item in person. Zalando has already eliminated part of this worry for customers by taking on the risk to ensure that customers can return any unwanted items to the store at no cost, promising a full refund upon their return. In order to reduce the amount of returns - [which currently stands at an average of 50%](https://corporate.zalando.com/en/newsroom/en/stories/returns-zalando?ref=karlsnotes.com), Zalando has sought to make use of AI so that any items bought, fit the customer appropriately and look as they were advertised online. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/07/image-2.png)](https://medium.com/zalando-design/a-designers-ai-learning-journey-dd3f3079a299?ref=karlsnotes.com) Zalando services that are assisted by AI The company has also looked at acquiring niche startups to help with this, including the 2020 acquisition of '[Fision](https://corporate.zalando.com/de/newsroom/news-storys/zalando-investiert-mit-uebernahme-von-schweizer-3d-spezialist-fision-weiter?ref=karlsnotes.com)', a company based in Zurich that creates "precise virtual 3D models of bodies and garments", with the aim to improve the online shopping experience. Zalando hopes to use its newly acquired knowledge to gauge why certain items are being returned by the customer, which then allows AFC to produce even better results when recommending certain products. Gentz says that improvements in this regard have already been registered - the company has been able to [reduce returns related to sizing issues by 10%](https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/technology/state-of-fashion-technology-report-zalando-robert-gentz-interview-retail/?ref=karlsnotes.com). The rapid progress made in [augmented reality](https://www.karlsnotes.com/snaps-increasing-focus-on-utility-ar/) (AR) will continue to help eliminate the need for a physical changing room and further reduce returns. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/07/image.png)](https://twitter.com/Zalando%5FPress/?ref=karlsnotes.com) Zalando's use of AI does not stop at customer-facing technology. The company continues to enhance its service by using AI to ensure that its logistical issues are solved as efficiently as possible, avoid fraud, and keep up with seasonal demand. The CEO of Zalando has recently said that an interesting challenge that the company is currently dealing with concerns logistics, or more specifically where to put certain items targeted for specific customers in the company's numerous warehouses, in order to minimise delivery times and avoid single-item shipments. AI is an integral part of warehouse logistics too, including with sorting, packing and delivery. Robots at fulfillment centres have been assisting humans by identifying and picking up items and delivering them to specific packing stations, while smart algorithms have allowed for better understanding of how and when the parcel will be delivered to the customer, depending on the type of delivery method that was chosen. As Zalando looks to the future - from [eliminating fast fashion](https://www.ft.com/content/afdf9568-d9ac-4021-adb2-ab9bf80d24eb?ref=karlsnotes.com), to reducing single-use plastics in packaging - the use of AI and data within the company will only increase, as 'Europe’s most fashionable tech company' will seek to continue dominating a more environmentally-conscious world, while keeping a competitive edge that made it a household name in Europe in the first place. *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* ### Interesting borders around the world URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/interesting-borders-around-the-world/ Last updated: 2023-01-17T17:31:16.000Z In a [recent post](https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-to-start-your-own-country-in-four-steps/), I wrote about the importance of defined territory for the legitimacy of countries around the world. Sovereignty starts and ends within international borders - some marked by natural phenomena, such as rivers, mountains, forests or the sea, others are man-made, like those straight lines we find on maps of countries in Africa or the Middle East, the result of historical and political changes over thousands of years. There are a number of borders around the world that make you question how they came to take shape in the first place. These are some of them. ## Cyprus – Northern Cyprus Cyprus has been divided into two *de facto* countries ever since Turkey invaded the island in 1974\. The northern half is controlled by Turkish Cypriots in a semi-presidential political system called the ‘[Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern%5FCyprus?ref=karlsnotes.com)’. This entity, however, is only recognised by Turkey, and all other UN Member States, recognise the whole island as part of the [Republic of Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus?ref=karlsnotes.com). The westernmost point of the so-called ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’, is the [Kokkina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kokkina?ref=karlsnotes.com) exclave, cut off from the main part of Northern Cyprus after Turkish forces failed to connect the borders during the 1974 invasion, as seen in the image below. Tensions about this [exclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enclave%5Fand%5Fexclave?ref=karlsnotes.com) started earlier in 1964 after the Greek-Cypriot government thought that the deepwater port at Kokkina was serving as an illegal port of entry for weapons for the Turkish-Cypriot Community. In the 1974 invasion, capturing Kokkina was one of the main objectives of the Turkish invading force and while they did succeed in taking the town, the Turkish military failed to connect the exclave to the northern part of the country under their control. This led to an unusual situation whereby the town, surrounded by a UN-mandated buffer zone, is cut off from the northern part of the island. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/05/Cyprus-1-e1603658450436.webp) Credit: https://litci.org/en/cyprus/ ## Austria – Germany In 1342, an Austrian farmer bought a piece of land on the border from a German lord. That land, which today includes the town of Jungholz, remained part of the Austrian Tyrol after a treaty signed in 1844 divided the surrounding territory between Germany and Austria. The border between Jungholz and the rest of Austria is connected by a single point on top of a mountain called [Sorgschrofen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorgschrofen?ref=karlsnotes.com), and the only access for locals is a road through Germany. Due to this peculiar situation for Jungholz and its residents, the [town](https://www.cntraveler.com/stories/2016-03-28/theres-part-of-austria-in-germany-sort-of?ref=karlsnotes.com) has both Austrian and German postcodes and is considered a free trade area with a thriving financial sector due to loopholes associated with German financial regulations. During the 2020/2021 Coronavirus pandemic, when the Austrian government mandated quarantine restrictions for citizens and tourists coming in from other countries, separate regulations for the residents of Jungholz had to be created so that they would be able to travel across international borders to reach their hometown without having to quarantine. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/05/2.png) ## Zambia – Botswana In May 2021, the Presidents of Zambia and Botswana inaugurated the Kazungula bridge, a $260 million, 923-metre long crossing that traverses the Zambezi river and the 15 metre long border between these two countries. The bridge, which was financed by both Zambia and Botswana, as well as the African Development Bank, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, and the and the EU-Africa Infrastructure Trust Fund, will help the two countries boost the trade between them, and serve as an important junction between central and southern Africa, which has previously been accessible through Beitbridge border crossing between Zimbabwe and South Africa, where transport spends hours, if not days, queuing to cross. This is also why former Zimbabwean President Mugabe opposed the project at all costs - he feared that a road connection between Zambia and Botswana could see Zimbabwe lose its toll on that traffic, which led the bridge to be built in a curve in order to avoid Zimbabwean territory. The border point here was a [geopolitical issue](https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/kazungula-bridge/?ref=karlsnotes.com) between the four surrounding countries for a long time and led to an armed confrontation in the 1970s. The white minority-ruled Namibia (then occupied by South Africa), and Rhodesia (as Zimbabwe was named), claimed that the border is a quadripoint where all four meet and therefore they controlled what happened on the Zambezi River. Botswana and Zambia argued that there is in fact a border connection between the two. Today, following political changes in both Namibia and Zimbabwe, all four countries better understand the significance of having an additional border crossing for inter-regional trade. ![](https://i0.wp.com/sovereignlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/06/BWAZMB_land_sketch_half_01-01.png?w=640&ssl=1) Credit: https://sovereignlimits.com/boundaries/botswana-zambia-land ## Italy – Switzerland Another interesting border I have been to is the one between Italy and Switzerland, or more specifically at Campione d’Italia. Campione, as the town was named before the 1930s, is an Italian territory that rests within the borders of Switzerland, in the southern canton of Ticino. The [town](https://gsc-consultingandmanagement.com/campione-ditalia-history/?ref=karlsnotes.com) has had special status since the 1st Century when the ruler of the region at the time gave the territory of Campione to the Monastery of Sant‘Ambrogio in Milan, in whose hands it remained for 1020 years. In 1797, Napoleon Bonaparte arrived in today's northern Italy, declaring the foundation of the Cisalpine Republic and annexing Campione. A year later, Ticino was made a federal Canton, becoming part of the Swiss Confederation, but the inhabitants of Campione chose to remain part of Lombardy which itself later became part of Italy in 1859. In 1861, the Treaty of Varese, which had delineated the border between Switzerland and Italy was revised by both countries. Up to this point, Campione included the opposite coast of San Martino, however as a result of the revision the new border of the town was moved to the middle of the lake. In return for this loss of land, Campione was given free access to the Swiss market and services. This meant that while residents pay their taxes in Italy, most public services were carried out by Swiss providers. On 1st January 2020 the town joined [the EU Customs Union](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2020/01/03/tiny-italian-enclave-in-switzerland-transferred-back-to-italy-and-the-eu-s-customs-union?ref=karlsnotes.com), and residents starting paying VAT at a much lower rate than what other Italians pay. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/05/1.png) *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* ### Montbell: the outdoors company where 'function is beauty' URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/montbell-the-outdoors-company/ Last updated: 2022-04-07T17:41:44.000Z In 1969, 21-year-old Isamu Tatsuno stood at the bottom of the Eiger mountain overlooking Grindelwald, Switzerland. By then, he had two main goals in life - to climb the Eiger, and found a company related to mountaineering. He did both by the time he was 28 years old. After travelling all the way from Japan to Switzerland to reach his first goal, Tatsuno had to wait for a further 40 days and nights in Grindelwald in order for the weather to improve. When the weather did clear, Tatsuno managed to climb the Eiger in 21 hours, considered a fast climbing pace at the time. It was during trips like this that he realised that the climbing equipment available was not always the best, and was often heavy, especially when it rained. He wanted simple and light tools that served their purpose, which is what led him to start Montbell in August of 1975. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/04/Isamu-Tatsuno-1.jpg)](https://www.outsidersstore.com/blog/isamu-tatsuno?ref=karlsnotes.com) Chouinard and Tatsuno shaking on a deal that licensed Montbell to sell Patagonia products in Japan (Outsiders Store) In the first few years, the company focused on the Japanese market, producing high-quality outdoor equipment, such as sleeping bags and climbing gear. Originally the company had a single office in Osaka, followed by a second one in Tokyo six years later. Montbell offices in Europe and the United States only opened in 1990, while the first store outside of Japan opened in 2002, in Boulder, Colorado, followed by a second store in Grindelwald, Switzerland in 2005. In 2001, the company launched its website - montbell.com, in order to sell its gear online, initially also restricted to Japan, but was then available to the US in 2004\. In an effort to attract new customers it also expanded into several areas usually associated with the outdoors, such as accommodation and food, by opening the Montbell Club Gojo store & Youth Hostel in 2007 and launching a freeze-dried food range titled '[Risotta](https://en.montbell.jp/products/goods/list.php?category=661000&ref=karlsnotes.com)' in 2017\. As Montbell became more and more successful, the company saw an opportunity to do more than just produce and sell clothing and equipment, but also use the knowledge and expertise it had gained over the years to help communities around the world. The company has in fact been guided by seven main beliefs, called '[Montbell's Seven Missions](https://en.montbell.jp/company/missions/?ref=karlsnotes.com)' which tie the company's financial goals to social objectives. These include respect for the environment, fostering life skills through outdoor experiences, living a long, healthy and fulfilling life, assisting in natural disasters, revitalising local communities through ecotourism, supporting people working with natural resources, and providing access and support to disabled people by making sure they can experience outdoor activities themselves. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/04/news_20170329.jpg) Montbell signs National Parks of Japan Official Partnership agreement with the Japanese Ministry of the Environment During the 1995 earthquake disaster in Kobe, Japan, Montbell was among the first to use its resources to mobilise people and equipment. In line with the 'Seven Missions' Tatsuno felt the need to create a separate entity focusing on preparing individuals for disasters and delivering relief. 'Outdoor GIENTAI', or the 'outdoor relief group', was born as a reaction to the 1995 Kobe earthquake, and became involved in assisting relief at the sites of several disasters, not just in Japan, but around the world. From creating 'Emergency Set' guidelines to ensure that people are properly equipped before the disaster, to delivering High Function t-shirts to disaster victims in Chile's 2010 mining accident, Outdoor GIENTAI's gear and expertise proved to be crucial to saving lives. The [latest high profile](https://en.montbell.jp/generalpage/disp.php?id=456&ref=karlsnotes.com) Outdoor GIENTAI assistance project was the provision of Personal Protective Equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020\. Tatsuno promised to "help medical facilities, public health centers and municipalities that have been on the frontline combating the virus", and following a conversation with a doctor who feared the lack of medical gowns, Montbell's founder started to design one using the company's sewing machines, made from material usually used for sleeping bags. Thousands of medical gowns and face shields were then donated to frontliners thanks to the rapid response of the group. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/04/detailimg_0456_006_007_5eba4d9e4c4da.jpg) Tatsuno remains involved in a number of organisations, such as the Scout Association of Japan and the Japan Ecotourism Center, and has also received several awards for his work with Montbell and the environment, most notably the Medal of Honour Dark Blue Ribbon of Japan, which is given to individuals who made exceptionally generous financial assistance to the public. The personal success of Tatsuno, as well as that of Montbell, which now makes more than €623 million per year ($684 million), highlight the appropriateness of the company's adherence to the Japanese tradition of *kinobi -* function is beauty, which is reflected in their products and their ethos. *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* ### Snap's increasing focus on utility AR URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/snaps-increasing-focus-on-utility-ar/ Last updated: 2023-01-10T15:09:05.000Z > "Augmented Reality grounds us with a view of the physical world, and brings all that's available in the digital world to us..." This is how Bobby Murphy, co-founder of Snap [defined](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG31NacaT1E&ref=karlsnotes.com) augmented reality (AR) a few months before the tech world turned its focus to the metaverse following Meta's announcement. [Snap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snap%5FInc.?ref=karlsnotes.com), Snapchat's parent company, has been quietly working on expanding the development of its AR tools and experiences, making it easier for users to enhance our physical world through digital add-ons, rather than create a virtual one from scratch. At the latest [LensFest](https://lensfest.live/?ref=karlsnotes.com) 2021, a festival organised by Snap to inspire and innovate in AR, the company announced that since 2017, more than 2.5 million Lenses have been created by 250,000 creators from 200 countries and territories around the world. Lenses, which are similar to image filters that one can see and interact with in real-time on a smartphone or[ smartglasses](https://www.spectacles.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com), have been used for everything from taking funny pictures with [fake monkeys](https://lens.snapchat.com/767c0be878f64b3082fd9add7b427cbd?ref=karlsnotes.com), [shopping](https://forbusiness.snapchat.com/blog/introducing-catalog-powered-ar-shopping-lenses?ref=karlsnotes.com), to making the Eiffel Tower [throw up rainbows](https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/4/18294062/snapchat-landmarkers-ar-lenses-filters-eiffel-tower-rainbows?ref=karlsnotes.com). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/02/AR-Shopping-UI-Spectacles__3_.gif) With more than [75%](https://lensstudio.snapchat.com/?utm%5Fsource=spectacles%5Fcom&utm%5Fmedium=global%5Fheader&utm%5Fcampaign=universal%5Fnavigation) of Snapchat users engaging with some form of augmented reality, the company has been quietly building a number of AR-related products as part of the 'Snap AR' ecosystem. The launch of [Lens Studio](https://lensstudio.snapchat.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com) in 2017 ensured that millions of users and creators around the world can design, develop and use their own Lenses, allowing increasingly creative Lens filters. Since then, Lens Studio has been constantly updated to reflect changes in AR technology, adding tools and functions that enhance the experience of Snapchat users. ### Lenses for Utility and Education The latest updates of Lens Studio have been the most fascinating because while currently most of the AR lenses available on Snapchat are more personal and informal, there is a growing number of Lenses that have real-world use or are educational in nature. This concept is not a new one. I have previously written about how [IKEA](https://www.karlsnotes.com/ikea-and-the-future-of-living/) is using augmented reality to enhance their customers' experience with buying furniture, while many others are co-opting AR in order to deliver a better product to their customers. Snapchat is, however, in a better position than companies like IKEA, because its AR tools cater for more areas than just single specific tasks. Snapchat's launch of '[Scan](https://scan.snapchat.com/?lang=en-US&ref=karlsnotes.com)' in 2019 is the most obvious proof of the company's increasing interest in rolling out AR for everyday use. The 'Scan' feature contains what are called 'Utility Lenses', which essentially turns Snapchat into a visual search engine. This allows the user to receive real-time information on dog breeds, plants, identify cars and sounds, as well as details on bottles of wine and health facts of different products. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/02/wine2.jpg) With the latest update of Lens Studio and some coding knowledge, one can now also create utilitarian Snapchat Lenses by connecting these to APIs (application programming interface) to create what look like visual mini-apps. Currently, available APIs allow users to get real-time language translation, check weather data, the stock market, and the price of several cryptocurrencies. Combining these with other available AR tools, such as 'Location Triggers', which allows the creation of GPS-responsive Lenses that respond to changes in one's location, allows users to create AR-ready experiences that enhance everyday activities. An example is the tweet below, where weather data and the 'Location Trigger' effect was used by a user to create a Lens allowing him to view the name and weather conditions of a city, together with the estimated time of arrival while on a moving train. > On a train trip today, I wanted to know what cities I'm passing by, so I created an [#AR](https://twitter.com/hashtag/AR?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) lens for [@Spectacles](https://twitter.com/Spectacles?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) to tell me where I am. [pic.twitter.com/98Wud3i7K3](https://t.co/98Wud3i7K3?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Vova Kurbatov (@V\_Kurbatov) [November 29, 2021](https://twitter.com/V%5FKurbatov/status/1465311637771071490?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) These tools have also been applied to Lenses that are more educational in nature, such as the[Landmarker](https://www.digitalinformationworld.com/2019/04/snapchat-landmarkers-ar-lens-studio.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) Lens - which allows users to transform landmark buildings across several cities around the world in real-time. Snap joined forces with organisations around the world in highlighting the capabilities of this Lens, collaborating with the [Great Barrier Reef Foundation](https://www.barrierreef.org/news/blog/snapchat-and-great-barrier-reef-foundation-launch-world-first-water-segmentation-lens?ref=karlsnotes.com) in Australia, where AR was used to raise awareness on their mission to plant a million corals in 2021, and with the London Design Museum, where AR helped to turn the same museum into a living exhibition. The AR ecosystem is also being pushed forward thanks to hardware upgrades in mobile phones and smartglasses. Following the release of Apple's iPhone 12 Pro in 2020, Snap became among the first to ensure that the smartphone's integrated LiDAR sensor can be used through LiDAR-powered lenses on Snapchat. LiDAR is a way to determine the distance between the source and an object, by targeting that same object and calculating how long it takes for the light to bounce back. This makes any AR Lens look more authentic by better calculating distances between the user and objects in the field of view. Many of these Lenses have also been made available to Snap's own smartglasses, [Spectacles](https://www.spectacles.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com). With smartglasses, Snap has been taking a cautious approach before releasing the product for mass consumption. The three different versions of Spectacles have mostly been used by tech journalists and Extended Reality experts, who in turn have been giving feedback to Snap on their experience. From this, we have been able to see how smartglasses and their experimental features are pushing the boundaries of what we currently know about AR. Something I am also really looking forward to is the use of AR wearables to change the way we learn and interact with history. This is not strictly a utilitarian use of AR, but the possibility of having a quasi-time machine that takes you back to whatever period you want to learn about overlayed on what you're currently seeing is too exciting to miss out on. An example of this was the experiment by [Lauren Cason](https://www.laurencason.com/spectacles-boston?ref=karlsnotes.com) and 'Hashtag Our Stories' which overlayed original images of the Boston Marathon from the Library of Congress on the location of the same marathon to create a real-time history lesson. ### The future of 'everyday' AR The above is a small part of what's possible with SnapAR's augmented reality ecosystem. There are many more tools, Lenses, and effects that one can play with and combine to create AR for everyday use. In the coming years, augmented reality is predicted to grow substantially as part of the broader Extended Reality ([XR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended%5Freality?ref=karlsnotes.com)) industry. This is expected to [reach](https://www.statista.com/statistics/591181/global-augmented-virtual-reality-market-size/?ref=karlsnotes.com) $300 billion by 2024, from $30.7 billion in 2021 and Snap won't be missing out on this expected growth, thanks to its increasing emphasis on AR, and the general acceptance of AR by the market. Snap's own AR innovation lab, titled '[GHOST](https://ar.snap.com/ghost?ref=karlsnotes.com)', is propelling this interest by offering funding and expertise to developers creating Lenses and leveraging Snap's AR tools. Around $4.5 million are being invested by Snap on partners looking to innovate in AR through available tools such as early access versions of Lens Studio, who in turn have access to the millions of Snapchat users around the world. Utility and Education are two of the six tracks under which individuals and groups can apply for funding, with Snap seeking to find developers tackling "day-to-day challenges" and "accelerate learning around the world". *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '[Subscribe](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)'.* ### The 2022 General Election - Malta URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/2022-general-election-malta/ Last updated: 2023-02-07T19:32:37.000Z On 20th February 2022, Maltese Prime Minister Robert Abela asked the President of the Republic to dissolve parliament, so that a general election can be held on 26th March. I aim to continously update this post throughout the campaign period with several visualisations on the political parties or candidates contesting. ### Background The 2022 election will see the largest number of political parties contesting a general election in Malta since the one in 1955 when the Christian Workers Party, the Progressive Constitutionalist Party, the Democratic Nationalist Party, and the Democratic Christian Party joined the Partit Nazzjonalista, the Malta Labour Party and two independent candidates. In 2022, apart from the Partit Nazzjonalista and the Partit Laburista, citizens can vote for the right-wing ABBA and Partit Popolari, the centre-left ADPD and Volt Malta and four independents. Moviment Patrijotti Maltin is still registered with the Electoral Commission but it seems that most of its members have switched to Partit Popolari and the party will not be contesting the 2022 election. Imperium Europa, although registered with the Electoral Commission, has only contested one General Election throughout its existance, and does not seem to be fielding candidates for 2022. ### Political Parties ### Facebook following For the past months I have been tracking the Facebook following of political parties registered with the Electoral Commission. Some parties, like Imperium Europa, do not seem to have an official Facebook page, while others, like Għarb First, are local political parties and therefore not part of this visualisation. ### Polls Local newspaper [Maltatoday](https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/election-2022/?ref=karlsnotes.com#full-data) provided daily updated polls throughout the election campaign, which I believe is a first for Malta. ### Result Partit Laburista won the 2022 General Election by a landslide, winning 55.11% of the total votes cast. 41.74% of the votes went to Partit Nazzjonalista, 1.61% to ADPD, 0.52% to Partit Popolari, 0.46% to ABBA, 0.43% to independent candidates, and 0.13% to Volt Malta. ### Previously published posts related to elections in Malta: > [Maltese Political Parties' Share of Parliamentary Seats, 1921-2017](https://www.karlsnotes.com/maltese-political-parties-share-of-parliamentary-seats/) > [First count votes in Parliamentary Elections in Malta - 1921-2017](https://www.karlsnotes.com/first-count-votes-in-parliamentary-elections-in-malta-1921-2017/) > [How does a casual election work?](https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-does-a-casual-election-work/) I use [Flourish Studio](https://flourish.studio/?ref=karlsnotes.com) to create the visualisations. ### An African Superstate: the East African Federation URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/an-african-superstate-the-east-african-federation/ Last updated: 2024-02-07T15:42:35.000Z The [fastest-growing](https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5c4c5e6cc49ea6918baff0fb/61be6510a473ea7b98d1c23e%5FALP%20Law%20Series%5FArticle-AfCFTA%5FA%20Necessity%20to%20the%20East%20African%20Community%20%2815.12.21%29.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) region in Africa is also the site of an ongoing political experiment that aims, in the coming years, to have members of the East African Community band together and form the East African Federation - a single African superstate. The region has had a long history of collaboration, especially between Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, who cooperated under different agreements and organisations as early as 1917 when Kenya and Uganda formed a customs union. Between the 1960s and 1970s, the three countries created the East African Community (EAC), considered as the precursor to the EAC today which entered into force in 2000. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/02/6059.jpg)](https://etc.usf.edu/maps/pages/6000/6059/6059.htm?ref=karlsnotes.com) The original three Partner States were joined by Rwanda and Burundi in 2007, as well as South Sudan in 2016, and from the very start of the EAC, the ultimate goal of the organisation was a single political federation, based on a common set of foreign and security goals, good governance, and the implementation of a blueprint which lays out four different 'Integration Pillars'. The first two stages of these Pillars; forming a Customs Union and a Common Market, have been officially implemented, while the latter two; a Monetary Union and a Political Federation, have met with several political, economic and even historical issues. As with the European Union, the first step of this political experiment was to create a customs union between all EAC Partner States. This officially entered into force in 2005, leading all current six members to be able to trade among themselves without extra taxes and barriers that might hinder free trade between them. This union also set a common external tariff that anyone trying to import goods to any one of the Partner states will have to pay. The customs union has allowed the Partner countries to, in theory, increase efficiency in production and logistics, while attracting foreign investment. Following the implementation of the customs union, the EAC has [reported](https://www.africaoutlookmag.com/company-profiles/1454-federation-of-east-african-freight-forwarders-associations-feaffa?ref=karlsnotes.com) a reduction in the time and cost of transporting goods over the borders. The cost of goods coming from the ports of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Mombasa, Kenya, have [reduced](https://www.eac.int/customs/single-customs-territory?ref=karlsnotes.com) by more than half, while the length of the journey itself decreased. Despite this, the [African Regional Integration Index](https://www.integrate-africa.org/rankings/regional-economic-communities/eac/?ref=karlsnotes.com), which calculates how well different African regional groups have managed in integrating different parts of their economy, has noted that EAC Partner States have not made full use of their economies of scale and [studies](https://www.theigc.org/publication/unmaking-of-a-customs-union-regional-dis-integration-in-the-east-african-community/?ref=karlsnotes.com) suggest that the common external tariff of the EAC has not always been used to improve the economic welfare of citizens. > [“…I re-affirm the commitment of the Summit to the EAC integration process. We are certainly sure that this is an effective vehicle for the economic development and prosperity of the people of East Africa” ](https://www.president.go.ke/2021/12/22/president-kenyatta-chairs-eac-heads-of-state-summit/?ref=karlsnotes.com) In 2010, the EAC officially implemented the Common Market, a natural progression from a customs union, ensuring that nationals of the Partner States, as well as goods, services and capital produced, can move freely within the borders of the Community. Indeed, the most successful aspect of the EAC has been the [free movement of people](https://www.integrate-africa.org/rankings/regional-economic-communities/eac/?ref=karlsnotes.com) under the Common Market regulations, and to a lesser extent the level of macroeconomic integration, which ensures that capital moves where it could be best spent within the region. Following the implementation of the second 'Integration Pillar', the EAC turned its sights on forming a Monetary Union. This led to the signing of the East African Monetary Union Protocol in 2013 allowing the Partner States to technically integrate their own currencies into a single currency by harmonising policies, standards and fiscal policies, right before establishing an East African Central Bank. A single currency will ensure that exchange rates can be controlled, which will, in turn, bring in more foreign direct investment. Recognising the important role that the private sector could play in propelling regional financial integration, the 18th Summit of the EAC held in December 2021, [pledged](https://allafrica.com/stories/202201030330.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) to ensure a more structured engagement with the business community as one of its priorities for the years 2022 to 2026. The fourth and final stage of the 'Integration Pillars' is the formation of a Political Federation. This pillar aims to unite all six Partner States into a single African federal state with a capital in Arusha, today in Tanzania. Unfortunately, it will probably be the most difficult stage to reach. As the example of the European Union has shown us, while there might be a convergence of financial and economic objectives between several member states, political unity is very hard to achieve, especially in democracies, where governments with different priorities are elected every number of years. The growing level of distrust between the governments of the Partner States, combined with the [low levels](https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Briefing%20paper/afrobriefno146.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) of public support for this political experiment is proving to be a major challenge to form a politically integrated state. The different heads of state each have their own ambitions that sometimes go contrary to the stated objectives of the proposed Federation, while Partner States have sometimes [openly defied](https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/?ref=karlsnotes.com) the EAC goals in times of crisis. Uganda and Rwanda have had an especially icy relationship over the years, even though there are fragile signs of progress. Their common border, which has been closed for three years after both parties accused each other of supporting opposition groups, [just opened](https://www.dw.com/en/rwanda-reopens-land-border-with-uganda/a-60611300?ref=karlsnotes.com) in early 2022. This followed an earlier extraordinary Summit of the EAC in December 2021, where the current Chairperson of the Summit, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta [reaffirmed](https://www.president.go.ke/2021/12/22/president-kenyatta-chairs-eac-heads-of-state-summit/?ref=karlsnotes.com) the bloc's political commitment to the objectives of the EAC and claimed that progress is being made with all four 'Integration Pillars'. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/02/FHMr3otXoAI7GEL.jpg)](https://twitter.com/jumuiya/status/1473570207729864709?ref=karlsnotes.com) Despite the confidence shown by the Kenyan President and the other Heads of State at the Summit, the current goal of forming the East African Federation by 2023 seems too premature in view of these issues and the deadline will, in all likelihood, be pushed back. Political integration will probably become even harder should the Democratic Republic of Congo join the EAC - an event that is [likely to happen](https://www.busiweek.com/reopening-of-rwanda-border-puts-drc-squarely-on-eac-horizon/?ref=karlsnotes.com) in the coming months. On the other hand, this will open up the EAC to a new market of 90 million people and access to the Atlantic Ocean. One could argue that the EAC and its citizens would benefit more from focusing on economic and financial integration rather than a political one. Vertical integration ensures that the Partner States and the DRC focus on removing the remaining barriers to trade and free movement of goods, services, people and capital so that they can enjoy the full benefits of the customs union and the common market. A single currency and the resulting advantages of a Monetary Union will undoubtedly help accelerate this process, but the formation of a Political Federation will do little to improve the lives of the everyday East African. **Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press '*[**Subscribe*](https://www.karlsnotes.com/#/portal/signup/free)**'.* ### Fuggerei: the world's first public housing URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/fuggerei-the-worlds-first-public-housing/ Last updated: 2022-06-15T18:04:03.000Z In 1521, a German merchant and banker called Jakob Fugger, known as 'the Rich', a descendant of the famous Fugger family of [Augsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augsburg?ref=karlsnotes.com), took it upon himself to fund and build the first social settlement in the world. Known as Fuggerei after its founders' family name, the settlement is a planned gated community of sorts, located within the borders of the southern city of Augsburg in today's Germany. The settlement itself started with 52 houses when on 2nd August 1521, Jakob Fugger signed the deed that brought the estate, and the Foundation that took care of it, into existence. The deed also stipulated an exact definition of a Fuggerei tenant - an Augsburg resident, a Catholic, and a respectable person; and defined the rent due - one Rheinish florin yearly (equivalent to €0.88) and three daily prayers in honour of Jakob Fugger himself. The idea of creating low-cost housing in 16th century Europe was novel at the time. Poor families with nowhere to go were usually split up and placed in workhouses, which was an even bigger challenge for family members to get back on their feet. In the face of all this, Fugger had the idea of giving people dignity and privacy in a time where vast income inequality was [the order of the day](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2698183?ref=karlsnotes.com). Jakob Fugger's idea behind the Fuggerei was always that of assistance to those in need rather than charity. This was the core belief that drove the tenants' everyday life in the settlement. In fact, the residents were always chosen based on their skills, whether craftsmen or labourers. Residents had to be willing to work, and many of them had workshops and small businesses within the settlement. This, together with the cheap rent, allowed these residents to get back on track quicker and eventually find a different place to live. While today's residents come from different work backgrounds, the core philosophy of the Foundation in choosing who gets to live in the Fuggerei remains the same. Funding the settlement has not been cheap. Jakob Fugger had initially designated 10,000 florins to be divided between three different organisations started by the family, which included the Fuggerei Foundation. While the latter was at first financed through interest yields received from the initial endowment, the settlement was later financed through earnings of the Fugger family's estates. Since the 18th century, most of this financing came from investments in forests owned by the family in modern-day Bavaria and Lower Saxony, as well as added endowments from other members of the Fugger family. ![https://www.fugger.de/en/fuggerei/life-in-a-500-year-old-tradition](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2021/12/fuggerei-art-alltag-in-fuggerei-gal-010.webp) The Fuggerei c.1900 Over the years, even as the rent remained the same, the estate increased the number of apartments, opened up a gift shop and a museum to cater to the increasing number of tourists, and even built a bunker during World War II to protect the residents. The latter now showcases the life of the Fuggerei tenants during World War II and their efforts to recover from the destruction this war caused to the settlement. The destruction of the settlement mainly occured in early 1944, towards the end of the war, after heavy bombing took place in Augsburg. The bombing destroyed around [70%](https://www.fugger.de/en/fuggerei/reconstruction-after-the-bombing-raid?ref=karlsnotes.com) of the settlement, but the 200 residents took shelter in the bunker built just a few months earlier. Following the attack, the residents immediately started to rebuild the Fuggerei, where they ensured that the settlement returned to its former glory and expanded the estate to welcome other residents - an effort which continued well up to the 1970s. This effort ensured that today, 500 years after the creation of the world's first punlic housing, around 150 people currently live in the 142 apartments in the Fuggerei. While the three daily prayers for Jakob Fugger are not enforced, the community does check with the local parish to ascertain that the tenants are Catholic and residents of Augsburg for [at least two years](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/after-almost-500-years-german-utopia-is-still-going-strong-180973787/?ref=karlsnotes.com). Factors like age, ethnicity, and marital status, do not matter when it comes to the Fuggerei. As when the settlement was founded, the residents are also expected to help out with small jobs at the estate, whether as gardeners, watchmen, or at the tourist ticket office. This increases the community aspect of the estate and helps to ensure that no one ever feels alone in overcoming the challenges that they face. One of the more famous residents of the Fuggerei was [Franz Mozart](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/after-almost-500-years-german-utopia-is-still-going-strong-180973787/?ref=karlsnotes.com), the great-grandfather of the composer [Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang%5FAmadeus%5FMozart?ref=karlsnotes.com). This makes me wonder whether we would have heard the music of the great composer if this housing settlement had not existed in the first place. --- *Thank you for reading. If you would like to receive similar posts and updates, press 'Subscribe' [here](https://www.karlsnotes.com/).* ### The towns built by Mussolini and their political legacy URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-towns-built-by-mussolini-and-their-political-legacy/ Last updated: 2022-08-24T16:45:28.000Z At the end of the 19th century, a Prussian officer had an idea to build a water collection system beneath the mountains in modern-day Latina Province, very close to Rome, Italy. The idea was to collect the water before this settles down and prevent it from stagnating in what are known as the Pontine Marshes, with the collected water being then pumped into the Mediterranean. Major Fedor Maria von Donat filed a patent with the German Patent Office and tried to attract financial and political interest in such a project in both Germany and Italy. After moving to Italy, Major von Donat implemented a pilot project based on his plan by leasing marshland near the mountains, draining the land, and using it for farming. In the process, he managed to eradicate malaria from the land that was infamous for being inhabitable due to this disease. This was also one of his key selling points to the Italian Government. The latter became interested in implementing a similar idea, however, internal politics ultimately proved to be the downfall of von Donat’s aim to create new arable farmland for Italian settlers. Before von Donat’s experiment, many thought about how the marshes could be reclaimed; Napoleon and Pope Pius XI both had their own ideas. Even Goethe was bothered with the swamp taking up valuable land. However, after von Donat, it was only in the 1920s when Benito Mussolini was appointed Prime Minister by the King, that Italy began to develop a serious plan to drain the swamps and eradicate malaria. Mussolini wanted to make this a central pillar of his Fascist regime and today, the draining of the marshes in Italy is closely associated with this period, just as the building of the sprawling [autobahn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autobahn?ref=karlsnotes.com#1930s) network in Germany is closely associated with the Nazi regime. In total, the Fascist regime in Italy built some [147 new towns](https://ehsthelongrun.net/2020/05/14/fascistville-mussolinis-new-towns-and-the-persistence-of-neo-fascism/?ref=karlsnotes.com) between 1922 and 1943, including several built on land reclaimed from marshes through massive public investment and internal migration – which was mostly [non-voluntary](http://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p14661/html/ch04s02.html?ref=karlsnotes.com). Several new towns built on drained swampland can be found on the Pontine Marshes such as Littoria (now Latina, completed in 1932), Sabaudia (1934), Pontinia (1935), Aprilia (1937), and Pomezia (1939), as well as on the island of Sardinia, such as the towns of Mussolinia (now Arborea), Carbonia, and Fertilia. ![](https://i1.wp.com/erenow.net/common/mussolinis-rome-rebuilding-the-eternal-city/mussolinis-rome-rebuilding-the-eternal-city.files/image030.jpg?w=640&ssl=1) Mussolini visits works at the Pontine Marshes, 1931 Indeed, the draining of marshes in Sardinia started earlier than the Fascist regime, with the creation of the Sardinian Reclamation Corporation, which was already in operation back in 1918\. The company was created to generate electricity through water management for the island, and by building several dams to generate this electricity, it helped to drain the marshes on the plains of [Terralba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terralba?ref=karlsnotes.com), on the west coast of Sardinia. Between 1928 and 1938, the Fascist government built the towns of Mussolinia, Carbonia, and Fertilia and moved thousands of families here from the north of Italy. With land reclamation, came a chance for the Fascist regime to start from scratch, and build these towns to elicit the revolution that many Italian architects thought Fascism was. In reality, there was no single type of architecture devoted to this political ideology, contrary to what other totalitarian regimes espoused. Mussolini allowed “[aesthetic pluralism](https://erenow.net/common/mussolinis-rome-rebuilding-the-eternal-city/?ref=karlsnotes.com)“; oscillating between a more modern, rationalist architecture in the early years of the regime, to a more vast, imperial style, evoking the grandeur of the Roman Empire. The new towns built from reclaimed land show these competing styles of architectural design, sometimes even between buildings within the same towns. Architects in the two different camps had different ideas about how and what Fascist architecture should really portray. While some thought that this architecture should emphasize functionality, uniformity and rationality, others were against what they considered a ‘globalised’ style and argued that this new era for architecture should look back to the roots of Italian history for inspiration, including the Roman era. In the very first new town built by the new Fascist government, [Mussolinia](https://www.wallpaper.com/architecture/oliviero-olivieri-captures-sardinian-town-arborea-and-its-past-as-mussolinia?ref=karlsnotes.com), completed in 1928, one can notice this clash of architectural styles with both a Gothic church and a modernist building reserved for the Fascist Youth being built within minutes of each other. Many of the important buildings such as the local school and the hospital bear little resemblance to the local Sardinian architecture. While the buildings in the main square have a more neo-classical style, the buildings on the outskirts of the small town, including one of the highest buildings in the town, the Casa del Fascio (the local quarters of the Fascist Party), feature a rationalist design. Italian Rationalism focuses on the symmetry of classical Roman buildings without the decoration normally associated with ‘classicalism’. This style was associated with the Italian Fascist regime in the 1920s and early 1930s after several large projects were built using this design, most famously with the construction of the EUR (Esposizione Universale Roma) district in Rome, which was to be the site of the 1942 World Fair were it not for World War II. ![](https://i2.wp.com/64.media.tumblr.com/e281b450c47cd8e81303e7df1c0fd08a/tumblr_nyc44b9i8f1r4vadxo1_500.jpg?w=640&ssl=1) The Italian Rationalist architectural style of the Casa del Fascio in Mussolinia The same took place in the towns built on the more-known reclaimed Pontine Marshes near Rome. Here, the Italian Fascist government managed to build five new towns and several other smaller villages between 1932 and 1939, including Littoria, Sabaudia, Pontinia, Aprilia, and Pomezia. In Sabaudia, one cannot miss the Fascist influence on the planning and the design of the town. From the shape of the tower of the municipal house built to represent the fasces – the symbol of Fascism, to the same symbol emblazoned on manhole covers, and the figure of Mussolini himself on the church facade. The architectural design for [Sabaudia ](http://www.prolocosabaudia.it/en/history/?ref=karlsnotes.com)was created by members of the Italian Rationalist architecture movement, the *Movimento Italiano per l’Architettura Razionale*, following a national competition. ![](https://i1.wp.com/i.redd.it/70l7zvjnfyh61.jpg?w=640&ssl=1) Sabaudia Post Office, Italy, designed by Angelo Mazzoni in 1932 The creation of these new towns served only one purpose for the Fascist government – showing that Fascism works. The planning of the towns, where, very often, the quarters of the Fascist Party were given a more prominent place than the traditional church, as well as the architectural design of the buildings, and the constant reminder that both ‘[Il Duce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duce?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘ and Fascism were present, was there to remind the new locals that someone is looking after them. This was not a new thing. Many totalitarian regimes use urban planning to control populations; the Soviet Union did this with communal apartments and collective farms, while a few years later, Nazi Germany also used urban planning and architecture to align the citizens with its ideology. ## Lasting political legacy Through new towns like these in Sardinia and Latina, the Fascist regime was assured a certain level of support throughout the remaining years of the regime. However, more interestingly, [a study by Mario F. Carillo](https://ideas.repec.org/p/sef/csefwp/598.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) from the Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance and the University of Naples Federico II has found that even in post-war Italy, these same towns gave rise to the strongest neo-fascist party in the West at the time, the *[Movimento Sociale Italiano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian%5FSocial%5FMovement?ref=karlsnotes.com)*, while their populations continue to be the most fervent supporters of nationalist and fascist-leaning political parties up until today. ![Proximity to the New Towns and Share of Votes for the Neo-Fascist Party.](https://ehsthelongrun.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/carillo2.jpg?w=640&h=500) *Mario F. Carillo* According to the author, these results suggests that public spending, in this case, the building of new towns that gave people houses to live in and places to work at, may have an even longer effect on the cultural and political preferences of the population than previously thought. He comments on how this impact even remains relevant after major institutional changes such as the overhauling of political systems – in this case, the change from the Fascist era to democracy. Despite this tendency, in 2017, the town of Sabaudia elected Giada Gervasi as Mayor with the support of three citizen groups, running against nationalist parties. The new administration immediately changed the name of a local park from ‘Parco Arnaldo Mussolini’ to ‘Parco Falcone-Borsellino’, to commemorate the two anti-mafia heroes rather than Benito Mussolini’s brother and fellow Fascist, despite protests from local nationalist and fascist political parties, with the controversy still [ongoing in 2021](https://www.wantedinrome.com/news/italy-right-wing-politician-resigns-over-mussolini-controversy.html?ref=karlsnotes.com). ### What you have to go through to travel to Malta during COVID-19 URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/what-you-have-to-go-through-to-check-if-you-can-travel-to-malta-during-covid-19/ Last updated: 2022-02-04T15:37:01.000Z *Updated February 2022* The Health Authorities in Malta have been promoting the use of the ‘[traveltomalta.gov.mt](http://traveltomalta.gov.mt/?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘ website for those wishing to travel to the country during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both nationals and non-nationals are encouraged to visit the website to confirm that they can indeed travel to Malta, and if so, the documents they need to present in light of the COVID-19 restrictions put in place by the same Health Authorities. The website has been updated from time to time to include newer legislation and new restrictions, and it has become better, information-wise, over the past months. The main problem is that the information provided is all over the place with no clear instructions of what one has to look for and where. Let’s take for example, a Brazilian national named João who is based in United Arab Emirates but travels a lot due to his work. He was inoculated with a Sinopharm vaccine in the UAE, but is currently in his hometown in Brazil before having to visit Malta on a business trip later on during the month. He goes to ‘traveltomalta.gov.mt’ before he books his flights and accommodation. This is what he currently sees: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/02/Screenshot-2022-02-04-at-16-33-36-Travel-To-Malta.png) Naturally, he starts by scanning the first lines of the page – the ‘[above the fold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Above%5Fthe%5Ffold?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘ section on a website is the most important part and should be planned to make the user experience as smooth as possible, with as little clicks needed as possible. In this case, João learns that travel requirements may change at a short notice. Good, he will be keeping an eye out for an updates before he leaves for Malta. The second line is informing online visitors that there is a new application form in place for those travelling to Malta from ‘dark red country/zones’, with a handy link for the form itself. But what are ‘dark red countries/zones’ for Malta? Is Brazil in this list? what are the other lists? He just wants to visit Malta for a business trip, this is not ‘exceptional travel’, can he still apply or will this be rejected outright? He sees information for ‘residents in possession of a valid Maltese ID or Residence Card, but immediately skips this part as he has neither of these things. João continues reading on information for travellers arriving from ‘red countries/zones’, but he does not know which countries/zones are in this list or the dark red one, which is again made reference to in the ‘above the fold’ section. He needs to find the countries in these lists, so he starts to scroll down. He stops when he sees an eye-catching graphic. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/02/Screenshot-2022-02-04-at-16-34-08-Travel-To-Malta.png) The graphic helps him understand better what the is required of passengers travelling from red countries/zones and dark red countries/zones, but he still does not know the countries/zones in these lists. He also learns that if Brazil is in the Red Zone, he will just need to complete a Passenger Locator Form, since he is fully vaccinated. However, if Brazil is in the Dark Red Zone, he will need to apply for ‘travel authorisation’, but as this is only granted in exceptional circumstances, he does not know if business travel is considered ‘exceptional’. João easily finds the link to the Passenger Locator Form by scrolling down a bit further, but when he reads point 2, he realises that Sinopharm is not an ‘EMA approved vaccine’. Does this mean that he cannot travel to Malta, even if he is fully vaccinated? He has a valid vaccine certificate from the UAE Dubai authorities, which is in the list right after point 2\. That is, of course, if Brazil is in the Red Zone, but he does not know if that’s the case or not yet. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/02/Screenshot-2022-02-04-at-16-35-11-Travel-To-Malta.png) He scrolls down again and finally finds the list of countries/zones in the so-called ‘Red list’. He cannot find Brazil in it, so he thinks that the country might be in the ‘Dark Red list’, but does not yet know if there’s a ‘Green list’, an ‘Orange list’ or a list of any other colour. Could Brazil be in a different list? He scrolls down again and finds a section on the countries/zones of the ‘Dark Red list’. Again, he reads that if Brazil is on this list than he has to apply for travel authorisation, on the form he has seen earlier. He can only apply if he is a returning Maltese citizen, which he is not; a resident for a long term stay, he is also not; and if the travel is considered essential by Superintendent of Public Health in cases of adoption, reunification of spouse/partner/minor/child with parents. Business travel is not mentioned, so João thinks that this is not considered essential. Can he still try to apply and ask for authorisation? Will this be rejected outright or will the Health Authorities take this into consideration? He also learns that he has to follow a 14 day quarantine at a location chosen by the Health Authorities but paid by himself, if he is authorised to fly. He finally manages to find the list of countries in the Dark Red Zone and Brazil is listed. Good, at least now he knows that he cannot fly to Malta unless he is authorised to do so after applying on the online form. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/02/Screenshot-2022-02-04-at-16-35-51-Travel-To-Malta.png) João scrolls down and sees another list of recognised vaccine certificates. Is this the same list as before, or is it an newer/older version? He skims through the points under ‘Further Information’ and is met with a hyperlink to a leaflet titled ‘[Welcome to Malta – How to Stay Safe](https://deputyprimeminister.gov.mt/en/health-promotion/covid-19/Documents/Welcome%20to%20Malta.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘. He thinks this will be handy if he manages to travel to Malta and opens the link but the amount of wording on the pdf overwhelms him and after a quick glance he closes the tab. He decides to go back to the link of the ‘Travel Authorisation’ form and apply online. ## General comments The case of João from Brazil is a rather complicated one, as not everyone will be living in different countries, have certificates from different authorities and travel frequently. Many people will be nationals of the country where they were inoculated and try to avoid flying during these times. However the same issues apply in this case. The would-be travellers will still have to figure out which country/zone is on which list, and even then, the documents needed and any exceptions are still not clear. As mentioned above, the ‘above the fold’ section should include as much information as possible for the user, so that he/she do not have to search for this themselves. To do this, the user interface of traveltomalta.gov.mt needs an overhaul in order to make the experience of the user easier and quicker. Even if the user interface is not changed, any updates to the restrictions should not just be copy-pasted on the website above the older information, but re-arranged depending on the updating info. For example, changing the method of authorising travellers from ‘dark red countries/zones’ should only interest those travellers from countries/ones in the dark red list. Putting this information in the first lines of the website, just because this was the latest update, leads to more confusion. Some of the information is also displaced twice, such as info on the recognised vaccine certificates and what the Health Authorities in Malta do not recognise as valid COVID-19 travel documents. This confuses the user on whether both lists are the same or if one of them is an update of the other. The list of non-recognised COVID-19 documents is especially important because a lot of countries, including Member States of the European Union recognise COVID-19 Recovery Certificates, as well as negative PCR tests, as proof of being COVID-free when travelling, while Malta does not. This confuses a lot of people when they come to make travel arrangements and they end up either calling/emailing the Health Authorities directly or Maltese Embassies abroad. ## How to make user experience better? Some immediate improvements that come to mind include: Changing completely the way the user gets information, that is, a complete overhaul of the user interface. Rather than expecting the user to find information that he/she do not know if it exists in the first place, the platform should be responsible for showing all the information depending on the user’s details. This could take the form of a platform that allows users: - to choose their country/zone of residence in an ‘above the fold’ dropdown list; - identify what type of vaccine certificate they have, if they do at all; - tick a box on whether they are Maltese citizens or residents. Once the data is entered, this brings up all the information related to that country/zone and the vaccine certificate including: - on which list is the country/zone located; - a Yes/No answer to ‘can I travel to Malta right now?’; - If Yes, what documents do I need to have to ensure that I will be allowed inside the country. - a Yes/No answer to ‘do I need to quarantine if I visit Malta right now?’; - if Yes, as a Maltese citizen and resident can I quarantine at my house? - COVID-19 restrictions within Malta – do you have to wear a mask, what kind of mask, where do you need to wear it? etc All of the information can probably be shown in the visible portion of the website, depending on the choices made by the users. This is, of course, a bit harder to implement than just adding words on the website when restrictions change, but I believe that it will deliver a better, less bureaucratic, and a less confusing, experience to those wishing to travel to Malta, while reducing emails and calls made to the Health Authorities and Maltese Embassies abroad on the subject. ### A Hacker News-inspired aggregator built with Softr.io URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/a-hacker-news-inspired-aggregator-built-with-softr-io/ Last updated: 2023-01-11T22:12:44.000Z Hacker News has been a fascination of mine since I discovered it several years ago, and today it has become part of my morning routine. Through the site, I discovered countless interesting articles and ideas, and the [most read article](https://karlsnotes.com/ikea-and-the-future-of-living/?ref=karlsnotes.com) on this site also owes its success to the millions of Hacker News readers. On HN, as the site is known, people expect a certain level of articles. The idea is for one to post “anything that gratifies one’s intellectual curiosity”, and although this definition is a little broad, this usually means technical articles about hacking and startups. Malta is crowded with traditional newspapers and clickbaity online articles, which leave a space, however small, for platforms showcasing analytical long form articles, theses, papers, and interesting projects that have otherwise nowhere to be promoted. I thought of creating something similar to HN for articles and projects (as in the ‘Show HN’ section of Hacker News) that are related, or have an impact, on Malta and its nationals. With this in mind, I wanted to replicate the same minimalist User Interface of Hacker News and build the whole thing as fast as possible with the lowest cost. In other words, I needed to build an MVP. The first idea was to create an upvote-type listing on Bubble.io, my preferred platform when building more complicated stuff, however a paid version of Bubble costs around $25 per month, which is more than I was willing to bet, considering the small market size for such a site. As a paid-up member of [Carrd](https://try.carrd.co/843p4hpk?ref=karlsnotes.com), the one-page website platform, I usually end up testing new ideas there despite the obvious limitations. I decided to try and build this link aggregator on [Carrd](https://try.carrd.co/843p4hpk?ref=karlsnotes.com), keeping the same minimalist look, while forgiving the lack of upvoting options. To keep the same minimalist look of Hacker News, I created a single blank white page that serves as the homepage. The links submitted feature next to each other but unlike Hacker News, there is no rank, upvote button, comment button, or the ability to see the URL options. ![](https://i0.wp.com/karlsnotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image.png?resize=640%2C301&ssl=1) This is what it looked like The only other two pages (which are built as sections, as Carrd does not have a proper CMS) of threefive6 were a short ‘about’ page and a submissions page. For the latter, I first tried to create an online submission form using basic HTML, which would send the title and the URL of the submission directly to my email address. This did not look neat enough, so I decided to use the Typeform option to capture the title and URL, which I then connected to my email address with Zapier. This, of course, represented a major flaw in my quest to make the link aggregator as standalone as possible – I had to manually insert the title and the URL every time someone submitted them, which meant logging in to Carrd, opening threefive6 from the dashboard and inserting the title and then the URL one by one. I kept this up for a few days, but it was obvious that this was not sustainable. ![](https://i2.wp.com/karlsnotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-1.png?resize=640%2C301&ssl=1) A few days later, I decided to try Softr.io, a nocode building tool based in Berlin, Germany. While Softr has similar pricing points to Bubble.io, which would then easily make Bubble the preferred option of the two, Softr allows free plan users to publish their websites on custom domains. As I already owned threefive6.com, I just needed to create a better link aggregator on Softr and point the domain to that website. Softr has a handy upvoting template that I used, which made things easier. I added a ‘submit’ button, an about page and another page for new submissions while changing the general look of the website. The only downsides I found are the small banner on the lower right part of the screen, as can be seen in the picture below, and the very basic customisation options found on Softr. However, I felt that these downsides were worth it, considering that I managed to build a MVP of a link aggregator for a total cost of €6.50 (for the domain). This is what [threefive6](http://threefive6.softr.app/?ref=karlsnotes.com) looks like right now: ![](https://i2.wp.com/karlsnotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-2.png?resize=640%2C301&ssl=1) ### Tim Ferriss and the Art of Online Conversations URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/tim-ferriss-and-the-art-of-online-conversations/ Last updated: 2022-01-22T17:24:25.000Z Over the past few years, you might have noticed an increase in the popularity of podcasts and the creation of audio-based content. Producing a podcast today is considered an essential networking and promotional tool. Major news networks, entrepreneurs, and politicians all want to be on podcast shows to deliver their message or sell a product. The launch of social audio apps like ‘[Clubhouse](https://www.joinclubhouse.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘ and [Twitter Spaces](https://help.twitter.com/en/using-twitter/spaces?ref=karlsnotes.com#:~:text=Spaces%20is%20a%20new%20way,so%20we%20get%20it%20right.&text=Anyone%20can%20join%2C%20listen%2C%20and,in%20a%20Space%20on%20Web.) continue to push audio as a medium for content creation, marketing, and networking. While the [reason](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56859086?ref=karlsnotes.com) for this increase in audio-based platforms is a discussion in itself, the real success of these types of shows often relies on the conversational skills of the hosts and the guests. Recorded audio services like podcasts, and especially live audio apps likes ‘Clubhouse’, are exposing how well we communicate and how well we can hold a conversation. One show which I have been following for quite a while is ‘[The Tim Ferriss Show](https://tim.blog/podcast/?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘, hosted by its namesake – Tim Ferriss, who started the podcast back in 2008\. The show has now passed the 500 million download mark and is considered one of the success stories in podcast history, largely due to Ferriss’s ability to connect with his guests and his excellent conversational skills, honed over the past years. In Ferriss’s [own words](https://observer.com/2016/05/how-tim-ferriss-became-the-oprah-of-audio-behind-the-podcast-with-60m-downloads/?ref=karlsnotes.com), starting a podcast is “a minimalist experiment for improving overall thinking: improving your ability to ask questions, fixing verbal tics (e.g. “ummm” “ahhhh”), getting better at listening without interrupting, learning to sit with silence until someone else continues, etc”. He recommends starting a non-interview-based podcast because doing so will “improve your ability to craft good narratives, tell stories, and be a better human”. Tim Ferriss has a way to make guests open up about aspects of their life that they have never spoken about and asks questions that they have rarely been asked about. Over the past weeks, I have been trying to find out how one can become a better conversationalist on online audio platforms by taking Ferriss’s own best practices. ![](https://i0.wp.com/karlsnotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/16652491320_bbf69cc5e1_o.jpg?resize=640%2C427&ssl=1) Credit: Andrew (Drew) Kelly So how does one become “a better human” and a great conversationalist? The Tim Ferriss approach requires five main steps: - Preparation - Listening and paying attention - Asking the right questions - Knowing when not to speak - Genuine curiosity --- ## Preparation COVID-19 ensured that thousands of podcasts and online shows are held exclusively online and in the process altering the way we communicate in one-on-one or group conversations. In online conversations, looks and behaviour matter less than your message and delivery. The best way to do well on a podcast or a live audio session is to make sure you prepare yourself before the event. It helps to understand the format and the objective of the podcast or the show that you have been invited to by listening to previous episodes. This will help you plan ahead by getting to know the kind of questions that get asked and what is usually expected of guests. At this stage, you should also be aware of what your unique value proposition is. This is what makes you unique, the real reason why you were invited to the show in the first place. Plan ahead on how you will share your expertise and in what manner, but do not focus only on what you will be saying. Flexibility is important as a pleasant online conversation is mostly about listening to others. Try to find as much public information as possible on the other parties using Google and social media to better understand their background, and what lessons you want to extract from the participants. Many of this information can be extracted during the show itself, but researching the guest as much as possible from before will only help your cause. Tim Ferriss is known to extensively research his guests before every episode. During the show, he often recalls works that his guests were part of, from different online and offline sources, such as previous interviews, books that they wrote, and even conversations with mutual friends about their personal relationship. Sometimes, the invited guests themselves send him information, which Ferriss uses to get a better understanding of where they are coming from. While this work is rarely seen (or heard) during the podcast show, this is often one of the most important parts of the interview. ## Listening and paying attention A good audio event is a mixture of previously prepared questions and serendipitous questions. While you can prepare the former, you have to listen and pay attention to what your guest or the other participants say in order to learn new information and follow up on it. We are used to having our attention spread over a number of things when listening to others speak. This even happens during one-to-one, in-person conversations. While one half of your mind is thinking about the words you’re hearing, the other half is probably thinking about what you’re going to say right after the speaker ends, or what you’ll be doing after you’re done with the show. Just like in meditation, mindful listening is the only way to have a proper conversation. Therefore, both as a host, a guest, or as part of an event, the only real way to have a great conversation is to pay attention to what others are saying 100% of the time. Tim Ferriss makes sure to listen to what his guests are saying and avoids interrupting. You can clearly see this trait on the podcast shows that were also video recorded for [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCznv7Vf9nBdJYvBagFdAHWw?ref=karlsnotes.com). Ferriss does not fidget with desktop notifications and puts his phone on the ‘Do Not Disturb’ function so as to avoid any distractions during the interview. He also often uses non-verbal cues to show that he is attentive to what the guest is saying, such as nodding his head, smiling, etc. This is not just because he is being polite, he behaves in the same way with his close friend Kevin Rose too. This short clip from the longer conversation with Rose clearly shows the natural behaviour of Tim Ferriss on his podcast. ## Asking the right questions A conversation is a two-way street – one must share information with someone else in order for it to be successful. After paying attention to what your guests or speakers just said, you will need to ask questions in order to [better organise](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYnGiWlwcj4&ref=karlsnotes.com) the new information you just acquired for your listeners, as well as to gather new information that might not yet have been disclosed. Don’t just ask generic questions, as you will only get the usual answers. Try to tailor questions to the specific guest and their experience, as well as questions that they probably don’t get asked a lot. The right questions do not necessarily have to be the most complex. You can get insight into someone’s mind by asking the most basic questions. In his [interview ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DICLqGAELMc&ref=karlsnotes.com)with Daniel Ek, Tim Ferriss asks the Spotify founder about his Twitter handle – ‘@eldsjal’ and what does this mean. Ferriss managed to find out more about Ek’s philosophy by asking about something everyone knew but may have never inquired about. In his book ‘Tools of Titans’, Tim Ferris also talks about “the power of the absurd question”, and ‘constraint questions’. Both of these are methods that good podcasts or live event hosts use so that the speaker does not resort to their default framework. He says that “asking the right questions, the embarrassing questions, is a superpower”. Asking the right questions is also important when you have a goal to reach in mind. If you would like your guest to speak about a specific topic and they continuously veer off-course, you will have to know how to ask the right questions in order to direct the conversation back to the original or intended topic, without sounding forceful. Ferriss is a master of this and regularly guides the conversation to areas he wants to cover without sounding rude or forceful. Emotional intelligence here plays a very important part. People with higher emotional intelligence or emotional quotient (EQ) are great at engaging with others. An important aspect of EQ is empathy – to understand and keep in mind other people’s feelings. As a participant on an audio show, one has to master empathy in order to be able to ask the right questions. If the guest is explaining a traumatic event in his or her life, your job is to try and put yourself in their shoes about how such an experience could have affected them. If you are guided by empathy, then you will probably be able to extract the right kind of questions from the situation. ## Knowing when not to speak A good conversation is also the result of knowing when you don’t have to speak. This relates to the ‘listening and paying attention’ step but goes beyond that as well. Ferriss is very hesitant to stop his guests while they are speaking, contrary to some podcasters who are infamous for jumping on guests as soon as they are trying to explain something, often adding their own view or version of the events. This not only comes off as rude and annoying to the speaker and the listeners but also destroys the very definition of a conversation, as it becomes very one-sided. Try to take it as a rule that if you don’t have something useful to add to a conversation, it is usually better not to speak and interrupt others. The only instance when Tim Ferriss stops his guests is to ask about something they just said in order to clarify it for the listeners. The episode with Kevin Hart from 2020 is a great example of this. Take a look at how Ferriss refrains from interrupting Hart, even when the latter is thinking about what to say next. He gives him space to elaborate on his thoughts and only speaks when asked a question by Kevin Hart himself. ## Genuine curiosity Last, but not least, is Tim Ferriss’s genuine curiosity in better understanding how his guests have achieved their current status in whatever field they excel in. Every guest on the Tim Ferriss Show has been invited because Ferriss himself is interested in the work they have done in their respective field. Many of the questions and the resulting conversations are indeed the result of Ferris’s curiousness about certain aspects of the guest – career, relationships, wealth, etc. Curiosity helps to make conversations more interesting, but only those hosts or guests that are really interested in the conversation topic manage to come off as genuine. It shows when people are really interested in the subject or are there just to sell a product or a service. A curious conversationalist always manages to ask compelling questions and never takes the answers provided as a fact. This is not necessarily the domain of the host. A good guest also picks up on the questions being asked or how the host is replying and takes it forward with related comments. Whatever your role on a podcast, or on an online audio event, remain open to be challenged about what you know and what you think the other person will speak about. Everyone has a story worth hearing, and if you’re curious enough, you’ll be able to get more out of the conversation you are having and hopefully learn something new along the way. ### Micro-level History URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/micro-level-history/ Last updated: 2021-07-04T18:40:48.000Z I was recently having a conversation with a Spanish friend about the Spanish Civil War of the 1930’s. While I was interested in better understanding the bigger picture of this historical period – how the civil war was fought, who won or lost, how did it start and why, I was also very much intrigued about the day to day life of the people living in Spain during this time – how “normal”, everyday people dealt with the situation, in this case the war, in their everyday life. When we think of World War II we usually think about Hitler, Nazism, the Allies, the Holocaust, Hiroshima, Pearl Harbour and more of these major events that made the war what we know about today. When we think about the Middle Ages, we think lords and medieval castles and when we think about the Roman empire, we think Julius Caesar and Roman armies. We rarely hear about how individuals behaved during great historical periods we read or hear about. We rarely hear about the day to day events of a German living in Bamberg during World War II, their work, their family, their struggles with money and relationships with other people. What about the peasant wife living a few metres away from the castle of the local lord, or the Roman citizen living in north Africa or northern Europe and their everyday worries, relationships, looking for work, raising a family, their search for happiness and meaning in their life. I believe we rarely think about this and if we did more often, we will notice that humans are the same everywhere, in every part of the world, from whatever background they are, and from whatever period they lived through. When we hear or read about how everyday lives were lived, it becomes even more apparent how similar we are and how historical events are repetitions of the same events under different circumstances. ‘Meditations’ are a series of writings by Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius, detailing his personal day to day thoughts. Take, for example, this quote: > “The happiness of those who want to be popular depends on others; the happiness of those who seek pleasure fluctuates with moods outside their control; but the happiness of the wise grows out of their own free acts.” > > Meditations by Marcus Aurelius Imagine the most powerful person in the world at the time worrying about popularity, happiness and moods. It’s not something we associate with Roman Emperors. That should tell us a lot about human nature and how no matter your position in society, and no matter in which century you live in, some challenges remain the same for humans everywhere. ### Challenges to creating a Network State URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/challenges-to-creating-a-network-state/ Last updated: 2024-02-07T16:10:51.000Z This is a review of the [‘How to Start a New Country’](https://1729.com/how-to-start-a-new-country/?ref=karlsnotes.com) piece by Balaji S. Srinivasan, which highlights possible pathways to a country founded and built online, and later also owning physical territory. I call this ‘the Reverse Estonia’, as the country has been on a similar path in reverse since the late 1990s. Estonia is increasingly moving government services online, from the ability to start a company completely [online ](https://e-resident.gov.ee/start-a-company/?ref=karlsnotes.com)to [replacing](https://e-estonia.com/estonia-to-replace-ambassadors-with-interactive-chatbots/?ref=karlsnotes.com) Ambassadors with chatbots. ## Human Resources First of all, why start a new country? In his piece, Balaji rightly compares [starting a country](https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-to-start-your-own-country-in-four-steps/) to having the opportunity to create something from scratch, maybe correct the wrongs you have previously seen in other countries. He argues that if we had to replace an existing firm rather than start a new company, or if we had to raze a building rather than buy new land, we would have been limited to what we could do. He’s right, that is limiting, and when it comes to countries you are doing just that – moving human resources from one entity to another. This is not to say it’s impossible to start afresh, without historical baggage, but a new country will be taking away resources from existing ones and when it comes to realpolitik, this is a zero-sum game. The resistance to a newly created digital country, will not come from individuals but states themselves. The “brand new”, as Balaji puts its, might be unthinkable to countries, but they know that anything new will still be fighting over the old, over human resources and the wealth humans create. This is the **first** challenge I foresee when it comes to creating a digital country. Human resources cannot be shared, and more citizens for this digital country, will mean fewer citizens, and therefore less wealth, for other countries. Human resources and how these are managed are what makes a country “real” and investment in humans and their needs – food, education, shelter, is what ultimately allows a country to become richer. Micronations remain so because they have very few human resources to work with and no incentive for people to become citizens of that same micronation. This is also the issue with ‘brain drain’ and the vicious circle it creates for countries with lower standards of living or those not attractive enough for immigrants. ## Societal Definition When it comes to how to start a new country, I’m not sure if seasteading, space, and cloud countries can be considered ways to start a country, as this has not been proven yet. On the other hand, while currently established countries *have* been founded as a result of armed conflict or through winning elections, this was not an end in itself. One can win an election or a war on the promise to found a new country, but it is going to take much more than that to be able to call your territory, a ‘country’. An example of this is the region of [Catalonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018%5FSpanish%5Fconstitutional%5Fcrisis?ref=karlsnotes.com), in Spain. This is where the **second** challenge in starting a digital country comes in. First of all, there is the problem of defining what the term ‘country’ really means. It seems that here, Balaji is assuming that (1) the societal definition of a country is that of being a member of the United Nations, and (2) that this membership is based on the number of citizens of a country. As I recently wrote in ‘[How to start your own country in four steps](https://karlsnotes.com/how-to-start-your-own-country-in-four-steps/?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘, there is no universal definition of what ‘country’ really means. Take, for example, the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, which is one way under the [declarative theory of statehood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign%5Fstate?ref=karlsnotes.com#Declarative%5Ftheory) of how proto-states can be recognised as countries. It highlights four qualifications for a country to be considered as such – having a permanent population; a defined territory; a government; and the ability to enter into agreements with other states. While a “real” proto-country usually has a problem to satisfy the final qualification, the proposed digital country will immediately have an issue with three of the four qualifications – a permanent population settled in one place, a defined territory and borders, as well as the ability to enter into agreements with other states. Bearing in mind that there are “real” countries on Earth that satisfy all four but still won’t be admitted to the UN, or even recognised by states around the world, the new digital country will have more of an uphill battle to gain recognition and sovereignty, and eventually become part of the United Nations. UN membership is very much based on relationships between countries, especially with those sitting at the UN Security Council. Let’s say that this new digital country has millions of citizens, billions in financial reserves, and also some territorial holdings. By declaring these territorial holdings as belonging to this independent new country and not to a private individual or a private company, one has already made an enemy of the country that the territory belonged to in the first place. No country will allow another to take away its territory, let alone by a newly set-up country. Take a look at the situation with [northern Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern%5FCyprus?ref=karlsnotes.com), which is the result of an armed incursion. Indeed, every country created in the last century was created with the blessing of world powers, or at least allowed to exist because it did not endanger the status quo. *De facto* countries like Northern Cyprus and breakaway regions like [Transnistria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria?ref=karlsnotes.com) will never be admitted to the UN, as long as regional and world powers do not recognise them as countries. The number of nationals belonging to a country also does not impact whether an entity is recognised as a country or not. The [Sovereign Military Order of Malta](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign%5FMilitary%5FOrder%5Fof%5FMalta?ref=karlsnotes.com), which many consider as a country and have diplomatic relations with, has just 3 official citizens, and there are countless countries, members of the United Nations, with populations in the lower thousands. On the other hand, regions like Somaliland – a stable, democratic, and the richest region in Somalia, with a population of around 3.5 million, is not recognised as a sovereign country by almost all the “real” countries. ## Way Forward? Balaji argues that these challenges can be overcome through economic leverage. He mentions the example of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, how it was first mocked as a failed experiment and has now ended up being co-opted by the largest banks in the world. The idea here is for the digital country to amass such economic leverage that it cannot be ignored, as is what happens to micronations and regions trying to cede from the mainland. This is indeed a strong argument and what could make something likes this possible. Once the new digital country amasses certain wealth, maybe even in a specific sector that the digital features of the country make the economies of scale work better, it is able to trade with other “real” countries, and therefore negotiate its recognition as a sovereign country. I believe that it is only at this point that a move to owning physical territory and holdings is possible. This is the way many smaller countries manage to economically compete with other geographically larger countries. In a world where a large amount of land means more natural resources, smaller countries tend to find niches that make them attractive to future citizens (therefore, human resources), and to companies trying to invest. By allowing the digital country to find a highly specific niche which it can offer to other countries, this will start a process for eventual ‘acceptance’ of this new type of country. As a result of this economic leverage, the new digital country would also be able to start a process such as owning [charter cities](https://trends.vc/trends-0056-charter-cities/?ref=karlsnotes.com), allowing it to test its previous digital-only governance on land, and therefore making it real to other countries. Indeed, “real” successful countries have had their sovereignty [recognised](https://karlsnotes.com/how-to-start-your-own-country-in-four-steps/?ref=karlsnotes.com) on the world stage over a number of years, where they usually start by creating aprecedent – one thing leading to the next, joining different fora and international organisations, until the country becomes an integral part of the world order and eventually a member of the United Nations. ### Maltese Political Parties' Share of Parliamentary Seats URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/maltese-political-parties-share-of-parliamentary-seats/ Last updated: 2022-11-10T18:36:46.000Z In a [recent post](https://karlsnotes.com/first-count-votes-in-parliamentary-elections-in-malta-1921-2017/?ref=karlsnotes.com), I visualised the number of first count votes received by Maltese political parties since the 1921 national election. This time, I created the above visualisation to show the composition of the Maltese Parliament immediately after every election for the same 1921-2017 period. One can note how historical events such as World War II and several different Constitutional changes made a difference in which parties took part in the elections. The number of total Parliamentary seats also changed over the years, ranging from just 10 seats after the 1939 and 1945 elections, to 69 seats after the national elections of 1987, 1996, and 2008. #### References: Data for the visual above was taken from the University of Malta’s Election project, which you can access [here](https://www.um.edu.mt/projects/maltaelections/elections?ref=karlsnotes.com). --- *You may find more data visualisations I created by clicking [here](https://www.karlsnotes.com/tag/data-visualisations/).* ### The Barack Obama technique for making tough decisions URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/the-barack-obama-technique-for-making-tough-decisions/ Last updated: 2022-01-22T17:25:54.000Z Over the past years, the definition of leadership has changed. We used to think of leadership as a trait associated with one’s title or hierarchical position within a company or an organisation. Today, we think of leadership as a social process that mixes individual desires and the group’s needs towards a specific goal. It is not an enviable position to be in. A leader has to take tough decisions, sometimes in a matter of minutes, that could end up affecting not only himself but also those that decided to put their trust into him/her. A leader of a state – a President, Prime Minister or any kind of head of government, has a much bigger responsibility in ensuring that the decisions taken are for the good of the country’s citizens, for its future generations – and in the case of the US, also for most of the world. This was the position President Barack Obama found himself in between 2009 and 2016, where he as President of the United States, had to set a roadmap for the US Administration, especially in light of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In a recent [post](https://barackobama.medium.com/how-i-approach-the-toughest-decisions-dc1b165cdf2d?ref=karlsnotes.com), he explains how no decision he was presented with throughout his mandate had a black or white answer. He had to make decisions that were risky for his administration and for the 300 million Americans, not to mention most of the rest of the world. In the course of his mandate he learnt that when taking these decisions, there was no guarantee that the result would be the one he wanted. Once a decision was taken, the outcome was often out of his hands. ![](https://i2.wp.com/pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1329647526807543809/2SGvnHYV_400x400.jpg?w=640&ssl=1) > I had already realized that because every tough decision came down to a probability, then certainty was an impossibility… > > — President Barack Obama --- To avoid wasting time trying to find a perfect solution that does not exist in the first place, Obama says that he found “a sound decision-making process”. When a tough decision needed to be taken, he would first **resort to listening to the experts**. Upon their advice and **the facts he was provided with**, he would then **compare these to the political goals** he hoped to reach while in office and then **weighed all of this against his personal principles**. While he still could not be certain of the consequences of his decisions, he would at least be confident that he did the right thing based on what he knew at the time. ### So how can you use this in everyday life? Most of us won’t be Presidents and would not need to make decisions on the economy or the foreign policy of a country. We won’t have political goals that we were elected to implement. At the same time, however, every one of us has to deal with tough decisions. We all have personal goals and personal principles. Tough decisions vary from individual to individual, however, Obama’s decision-making process may help us in our daily life by allowing us to be confident in whatever we decide to do. Let’s compare Obama’s four steps in his decision-making excercise to a process that you might go through in your everyday life: - Listen to the experts ➡️ Ask close friends, family members, mentors or someone you could talk to, and who has been through the same situation you are facing. Don’t let them take the decision for you, but consider each and every one of their advice. As Obama also reiterates, it is important to listen to others. Keep an open mind and ask questions, they may tell you things that you may have not yet considered. - Follow the facts ➡️ Analyse the pros and cons of every possible decision. Write these down on a paper to get a clearer idea of what you are facing. This will help you to realise that sometimes what you think is the worst possible scenario is not as bad as you might imagine it to be. - Consider your goals ➡️ What do you hope to achieve in the near future? Are any of the decisions before you good for your personal or professional goals? Which course of action will help you reach your goals faster/better? - Weigh all of this against your principles ➡️ Will taking a certain decision go against your core principles? If it does chances are you’ll end up regretting making that decision, even if it provides a “shortcut” to your goals. Act accordingly. Once you have considered these steps, it is also important to create space to think, whether going for a walk, writing or playing sports, it is crucial to step away from the decisions you need to make. This does not have to take long, even just a few minutes will help you get a better understanding of what is at stake. When a decision is taken, stand by it. You won’t know the outcome of this yet, but at least you’ll know that you took that decision with the best possible information at the time. --- *Thank you for reading. Sign up below to receive similar posts in the future.* ### How to start your own country in four steps URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-to-start-your-own-country-in-four-steps/ Last updated: 2024-02-07T15:46:00.000Z On 16th June 2014, Jeremiah Heaton declared 2,060km2 of arid land in Africa as the [Kingdom of North Sudan](https://www.kingdomsudan.org/?ref=karlsnotes.com), after promising his daughter that one day she would become a Princess. Heaton, a farmer from the US state of Virginia, had been looking for unclaimed territory around the world and after some research settled on an area known as Bir Tawil, an uninhabited piece of land between Egypt and Sudan. Due to two conflicting treaties drawn up by the British, both Egypt and Sudan interpreted the treaties as they saw fit. A claim on a piece of land close to Bir Tawil would disqualify the party from claiming Bir Tawil itself, and since the former enjoyed prospective mineral wealth, both sides claim this land as their own. Bir Tawil ended up a ‘terra nullius’ – land that belongs to no one until this was claimed by Heaton himself. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/01/Bir-Tawil.png) ### Rose Island Like many others, I have recently watched ‘[Rose Island](https://www.netflix.com/title/81116948?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘ on Netflix and started to think about how countries we know today came to be. In the film, Giorgio Rosa, the real-life founder of the former ‘[Republic of Rose Island](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic%5Fof%5FRose%5FIsland?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘, tried, in vain, to convince the United Nations, the Council of Europe and the Italian Government that since his artificial island was outside Italy’s territorial waters, it should be considered an independent state. While Rose Island and North Sudan are [micronations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micronation?ref=karlsnotes.com) – which are usually small in size, lack recognition from other states and are generally the creation of a single individual – their founding stories can tell us a lot about the challenges that [proto-states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proto-state?ref=karlsnotes.com) meet with, and how countries are indeed volatile entities that can be created and destroyed. When one thinks of countries like the United States, Russia, China, Japan or Germany for example, we usually consider these as permanent entities, however even these same countries had different borders, governments and cultures throughout their existence. While micronations cannot be compared to these countries, they do have one thing in common – they all are trying to find or maintain their place on the world stage. So, how do you create a country? First of all – what exactly is a country? While there is no single definition of what constitutes a ‘country’, there are some [international guidelines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign%5Fstate?ref=karlsnotes.com) that this entity must follow, for it to be recognised as such. The two main competing schools of thought are the [constitutive theory of statehood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign%5Fstate?ref=karlsnotes.com#Constitutive%5Ftheory) and the [declarative theory of statehood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign%5Fstate?ref=karlsnotes.com#Declarative%5Ftheory). Big words, however, the main difference is that the first one only affords recognition to states that have been recognised by other states, while the second allows for an entity to declare sovereignty without having to be explicitly recognised as such by other states. The declarative theory was codified in 1933 in the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States and is used by many proto-states, including micronations to help prove their cause, as its the easier way of declaring sovereignty. This does not guarantee that someone following this theory is automatically considered a country. Let’s take a look at each one of the qualifications under this theory and see how they affect the aspirations of proto-countries, not only micronations but also regions and people fighting for their sovereignty. The Convention states that “the state as a person of international law should possess the following qualifications”: 1. **Permanent Population;** 2. **Defined** **Territory;** 3. **A Government;** 4. **The ability to enter into agreements with other states.** --- ### 1\. Permanent Population The first qualification under this Convention is for the proto-state to have a permanent population belonging to the land one is claiming as a country. The Sahrawi people in [Western Sahara](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western%5FSahara?ref=karlsnotes.com) have been roaming the lands for hundreds of years. The area was governed by the Spanish until 1975 when Morocco, Mauritania and [Polisario](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polisario%5FFront?ref=karlsnotes.com) all claimed the land as their own. In a dispute between the latter two, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) [declared](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/01/13/who-should-control-western-sahara?ref=karlsnotes.com) that Western Sahara was not [terra nullius](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra%5Fnullius?ref=karlsnotes.com), as in the case of Bir Tawil, and before the Spanish conquered the area, there were tribes connected to Morocco, who were already living off the land. Morocco took this as a sign that it has historical precedent to control Western Sahara, even if the ICJ did not reach that explicit conclusion. Earlier, the United Nations General Assembly adopted [Resolution 1514 (XV)](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/ProfessionalInterest/Pages/Independence.aspx?ref=karlsnotes.com) on 14 December 1960, which declared that non-self-governing territories have to “transfer all powers to the peoples of those territories, without any conditions or reservations, …. in order to enable them to enjoy complete independence and freedom.” ![](https://i0.wp.com/morningstaronline.co.uk/sites/default/files/styles/article_full/public/11sahrawiprotesters.jpg?w=640&ssl=1) Sahrawi women protesting against the Moroccan occupation, 2005 Photo: Western Sahara / Creative Commons This is were Morocco and Polisario, which is recognised as the representative of the Sahrawi people by the United Nations, disagree. Polisario has been fighting for control of the land ever since, and after 1991 when a war between the Front and Morocco ended, the former only controlled a strip of land to the east of Western Sahara with the border of Mauritania. The Sahrawis are banking that having a permanent population on the land would make it easier for them to declare independence of Western Sahara. However, even this hope is fading as Morocco has been increasingly moving Moroccans on the land, making sure that any future referendum, if it takes place, confirms its control on Western Sahara. Without outside pressure, especially from major players in the region and around the world, Polisario supporters and Sahrawis see little hope that someday they would control the area, despite their people having lived there for hundreds of years. The case of Western Sahara contrasts with the tens of colonies that after World War II started gaining independence on account of their different cultures, languages and customs compared to the coloniser – and also as a result of the UN Security Council Resolution mentioned above. Even today, pro-independence parties and supporters in Catalonia and Scotland, for example, who have occupied their lands for hundreds of years, built institutions around their customs and passed on their language from generation to generation, claim their right to govern themselves as they see fit. The call for the sovereignty of these regions is, in fact, stronger than that of the people in [Northern Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern%5FCyprus?ref=karlsnotes.com), for example, whose claim for independence is the result of a military incursion in 1974\. Article 11 of the same Convention even claims that states will not recognise territorial acquisitions claimed by force. ### 2\. Defined Territory Several proto-countries often start with this specification – finding or occupying a piece of land or estate – something tangible that can give the claim of a state a real feel. Some, like Heaton, go to great lengths to find land unclaimed by official states, while others declare regions or parts of their country as a separate entity. Rosa, in ‘Rose Island’, even built the artificial island himself. On the night of 2nd May 2020, a number of slogans such as ‘[Away from Rome](https://www.nationalia.info/brief/11308/away-from-rome-independence-slogans-written-with-fire-on-mountains-in-south-tyrol?ref=karlsnotes.com)‘ were written with fire on the side of the mountains in South Tyrol in what seems to be criticism by right-wing separatist supporters, against the centralisation of COVID-19 regulations by the Italian government. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/a9/c1/a9c1efd2-da6f-45fb-8f22-c82eb72a046a/content/images/2022/08/los_von_rom.jpg)](https://www.nationalia.info/brief/11308/away-from-rome-independence-slogans-written-with-fire-on-mountains-in-south-tyrol?ref=karlsnotes.com) **Author: Schützenkompanie Johann-Jaeger Niederdorf Süd Tirol* The geographic position and history of South Tyrol with its neighbours and Rome, has led some movements to argue for the region to cede from Italy and join Austria. Pro-separatist South Tyrolean parties highlight their historical borders and their cultural and language differences with other parts of Italy as the reason why they cannot form part of the country. Many regions around the world have promoted territorial separatism as a way to reduce tension, sometimes even violence, between people of different backgrounds and different cultures. This is not usually the case in most independence movements in Europe, such as in South Tyrol or Corsica. However, violence has sometimes been used by separatist movements who believe that this will accelerate their cause, and even by the Government of the country who believes it will keep these movements in check. Even so, cases like South Tyrol, Corsica, West Papua (Indonesia) or New Caledonia (France), where there is an existing natural or man-made border separating people with similar backgrounds from other parts of the country tend to be more successful in making their case for independence accepted, or at least understood, within that same community and with the mainland. Compare this with people who have the same cultural background but are found in different regions/countries. One example is the case of the Kurds who are concentrated in parts of Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. Without a single place to call home, Kurds have had to take up their quest for sovereignty with several regional powers, which has made it harder for them to claim territory. The Syrian civil war did provide hope for Kurds, after the setting up of Rojava or the [Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous%5FAdministration%5Fof%5FNorth%5Fand%5FEast%5FSyria?ref=karlsnotes.com), which created a de facto proto-state controlled by Syrian Kurds. However, as soon as Turkey realised the danger of having an entity controlled by the Kurds right outside their borders, they invaded and re-took part of the lands aligned with Rojava. Take also the example of Cyprus and the Turkish invasion in 1974, which de facto divided the country into two. Whereas before the invasion Greek-Cypriots and Turkish-Cypriots lived amongst each other all over the country, the invasion and subsequent building of borders, led to the separation of these two cultures. The now defined territory of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus made it possible for some Cypriot-Turks to try and claim independence. ### 3\. A Government After identifying the borders of their territory, the second step usually taken by micronations is to form a Government, usually appointing themselves as Kings, Presidents or Princes and their immediate family members or friends becoming part of the Cabinet. Those who prefer a more formal pronouncement of their position also draft a Constitution which formalises this position and outlines how future Heads of State and Governments can come into power. In 2015, a Czech politician claimed a plot of land between Serbia and Croatia – unclaimed by both – as the [Free Republic of Liberland](https://liberland.org/en/?ref=karlsnotes.com). Vit Jedlicka organised the newly founded country as a “constitutional republic with elements of direct democracy” with himself as President, and appointing others in important positions such as Secretary of State and Minister of Interior. ![](https://i1.wp.com/cdn.liberland.org/files/raw/4218f4ff4a37fbf277000a9a3d67221cd35353e4/15785746236610.70754868750639947947311130007465001511438854298659521560576n.jpg?w=640&ssl=1) [Liberland Appoints New Minister of Finance](https://liberland.org/en/news/335-liberland-appoints-new-minister-of-finance?ref=karlsnotes.com) In newly created countries like Liberland with no historical precedent, creating a government is usually an easy straightforward matter without any oversight, however, in separatist regions the creation of a government is usually a much more sombre affair. With separatist movements in Catalonia and Scotland, for example, the interim governments of the would-be independent countries would be the same as those heading the current region in Barcelona and Edinburgh. These governments have been elected democratically by the locals, which enhances their claim to the position of power, and their institutions have experience in running the affairs of the state which will ultimately benefit the proto-country when it comes to step 4 of the qualifications under the Montevideo Convention. Indeed, when the region of Catalonia briefly [declared](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan%5Fdeclaration%5Fof%5Findependence?ref=karlsnotes.com) its independence in October 2017, despite not being recognised by any UN Member State, local governments in Flanders, Corsica, Sardinia and Scotland were among those that expressed their support for Catalans and their ability to decide their future. The Catalan regional government had previous connections with these regions, based on their politics of separatism and in fact, former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont took refuge in Flanders in a self-imposed exile, after being removed from office. ### 4\. Entering into agreements with other states This step might be the hardest for anyone looking to set up his/her own country. This is the real test of whether your newly-created country can flourish or not, and whether your country can truly play a role on the world stage. In September 2020, Somaliland [opened](https://apnews.com/article/beijing-china-somalia-taiwan-archive-3b538cd52f2dd1594dd00fd3cbdf99d8?ref=karlsnotes.com) a Representative Office in Taiwan, after the latter opened its own Office a month before in the breakaway region, which officially forms part of Somalia, but has been acting on its own accord for the past 30 years. Somaliland is the more stable, more democratic and richest region in Somalia that organises democratic elections within its borders and increasingly acts on the world stage with moves such as this one. Somaliland also lately signed agreements with [Ethiopia](http://www.somalilandsun.com/ethiopia-is-a-tested-and-verified-true-ally-of-somaliland-egypt-is-an-upstart/?ref=karlsnotes.com) and the [United Arab Emirates](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210131-uae-the-scramble-for-the-horn-of-africa/?ref=karlsnotes.com), not to mentioned its increasing cooperation the with [United Nations](https://menafn.com/1101549281/UN-Visiting-Delegation-Highlight-Cooperation-Between-Somaliland-Republic-and-the-World-Body?ref=karlsnotes.com). ![](https://i2.wp.com/chinaafricaproject.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Taiwan.jpg?w=640&ssl=1) [Somaliland Opens New Representative Office in Taiwan](https://chinaafricaproject.com/2020/09/09/somaliland-opens-new-representative-office-in-taiwan/?ref=karlsnotes.com) Entering into agreements with other states also means that the other countries recognise your entity as an equal partner, if not as an outright sovereign country. This is a huge step in international affairs. One of the steps countries take when they do not agree with each other is to recall their Ambassador, breaking off relations and any possible agreements. At the same time, therefore, a country opening an office, Embassy or even signing a document with your state is giving a more formal recognition which creates a precedent and helps your cause. The case of Somaliland is an interesting one and is one to follow in the near future. Somaliland is increasingly making the case for its sovereignty despite having no major backing from the world’s powers. Other new countries such as Kosovo and South Sudan both had the explicit backing of the United States, which pushed their claim for independence forward, however, the case of Somaliland has been largely homegrown. Their track record on stability and democracy and their recent agreement with Taiwan might also promote better relations with the US under the [TAIPEI Act of 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%5FAllies%5FInternational%5FProtection%5Fand%5FEnhancement%5FInitiative%5FAct?ref=karlsnotes.com), which rewards Taiwan’s international alliances. ### Now what? So your newly set-up country managed to obtain the four qualifications. Good. This does not, however, put you on equal footing with the United States of America, Germany, or Indonesia. You might want to **apply to the United Nations**, which for many is the ultimate benchmark for a proto-state to be considered a country. If you need a template for the application, [here](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/469401/files/A%5F56%5F1009%5FS%5F2002%5F801-EN.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com) \[PDF\] you may find a copy of the letter sent by Switzerland to the United Nations Secretary-General back in 2002, asking it to become a member. The UN has 193 member states and 2 non-member observer states (the State of Palestine and the Holy See), however, there are some notable absences from entities that are still considered as a country by many. These include Kosovo, the Republic of China (Taiwan) and if you speak to their founders, the many micronations that exist around the world. Many of these un-recognised regions often join the [Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization](https://unpo.org/?ref=karlsnotes.com) (UNPO), and some former members of the UNPO have indeed taken the promotion of becoming fully integrated on the world stage, such as Armenia and East Timor, who became UN member states in 1992 and 2002, respectively. ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Et8l4RHXcAQLqiW?format=jpg&name=4096x4096) [In 2021, the UNPO celebrates 30 years as an organisation](https://unpo.org/article/22127?ref=karlsnotes.com) One thing in common with all ‘startup countries’ who eventually entered the world stage is that none of them endangered **the position of the world powers and the status quo** on the world stage. Those that do, will probably fail. Taiwan’s quest to get more countries to recognise its independence from the People’s Republic of China continuously loses steam, as the latter uses its economic and financial power to make sure that other countries follow the [One China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-China%5Fpolicy?ref=karlsnotes.com) policy. In ‘Rose Island’, \[SPOILER\] the artificial island ended up destroyed by the Italian Navy after its existence posed a direct threat to Italy’s hegemony in the area. On the other hand, independence movements that do not alter this world order or even have the backing of this same order, can be potentially successful, such as the cases of Israel and East Timor. Another common theme with successful countries is that **sovereignty recognised on the world stage plays out over the years**, where you create a precedent and one thing leads the next. ‘Startup countries’ usually try to involve themselves in different fora and international organisations so as to create a precedent and acquire a foothold to other organisations and ultimately the United Nations. They also strengthen relations with other proto-states such as with Taiwan and Somaliland, which helps their cause in the long term. Okay, so there are more than four steps. These last three are more the result of [realpolitik](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realpolitik?ref=karlsnotes.com) rather than any written laws, however, they will help you to create a country where you can “[live according to your own rules](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qS2NtbEoIc8&ref=karlsnotes.com)” or rather those imposed upon you by other states, but that’s for another time. --- *Thank you for reading. Sign up below to receive similar posts in the future.* ### First count votes in Parliamentary Elections in Malta - 1921-2017 URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/first-count-votes-in-parliamentary-elections-in-malta-1921-2017/ Last updated: 2024-02-07T16:12:22.000Z Malta is required to hold a General Election to elect Members of Parliament every 5 years. Elections are conducted using the [Single Transferable Vote](https://www.um.edu.mt/electionsdata/stvsystem?ref=karlsnotes.com) (STV) method, which is regarded as one of the fairest ways to transfer the wishes of the electorate into parliamentary seats, in a more representational manner. The graphic representation above shows the number of first count votes – that is, the first preference of the voters, in General Elections held between 1921, when Malta had its first [Self-Government](https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/bitstream/123456789/55173/1/The%5F1921%5Fself%5Fgovernment%5Fconstitution.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com), up to the last General Election in 2017. It also shows how Malta moved from a multi-party democracy to a two-party system, defeating the intended purpose of the STV method. #### Further reading: - [How Malta Votes: An Overview](https://www.um.edu.mt/projects/maltaelections/stvsystem/howmaltavotes?ref=karlsnotes.com) - Datasets used for the graphic representation were compiled by the University of Malta in its ‘Malta Elections’ project, and can be found [here](https://www.um.edu.mt/projects/maltaelections/elections/parliamentary?ref=karlsnotes.com). ### How does a casual election work? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-does-a-casual-election-work/ Last updated: 2022-03-28T12:21:20.000Z General election candidates in Malta are allowed to contest in two different voting districts. If they are elected from both, they must resign from one of them and their seats are filled through a ‘casual election’ – ‘casual’ as in ‘not a regular thing’. Casual elections also happen when an MP resigns or vacates a seat in Parliament. The winner is then determined by reopening ballot papers of the MP who vacated the seat and distributed to the other election candidates according to Single Transferable Voting (STV) procedures. Let’s take the recent casual election to fill the seat vacated by former Finance Minister Edward Scicluna in the 7th District. Within this district, 28 contested for the 5 seats available. 3 seats went to candidates of the Partit Laburista and 2 seats went to the Partit Nazzjonalista – Partit Demokratiku coalition. On behalf of Partit Laburista, Ian Borg and Silvio Schembri were elected together with Edward Scicluna. With Edward Scicluna’s resignation, his votes will be transfered according to the next-named candidate on each ballot. Before the casual election, the fourth Partit Laburista candidate with the most votes was Charles Azzopardi with 2,179, followed by Gavin Gulia with 1,569 and Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando and with 1,040 votes. The quota to get elected was 4,147 votes. On the day of the casual election, however, Azzopardi was the first candidate to be eliminated after he recevied 1,028 to Gulia’s 1,486 and Pullicino Orlando’s 1,479\. As no one reached the quota necessary to get elected, the candidate with the least amount of votes is eliminated and the votes are once again distributed between the other candidates according to STV. Gulia emerged as the winner after he garnered 2,216 votes against Pullicino Orlando’s 1,750 votes. This graphic shows the process better: ### Do the hard things. URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/do-the-hard-things/ Last updated: 2021-01-18T10:49:05.000Z Back in 2014, I came across [this](https://danwaldschmidt.com/2014-01-business-hard-things/?ref=karlsnotes.com) online post by Dan Waldschmidt on his Edgy Conversations blog. I saved it and still reference it when everything seems to be going the wrong way. # You Have To Do The Hard Things You have to make the call you’re afraid to make. You have to get up earlier than you want to get up. You have to give more than you get in return right away. You have to care more about others than they care about you. You have to fight when you are already injured, bloody, and sore. You have to feel unsure and insecure when playing it safe seems smarter. You have to lead when no one else is following you yet. You have to invest in yourself even though no one else is. You have to look like a fool while you’re looking for answers you don’t have. You have to grind out the details when it’s easier to shrug them off. You have to deliver results when making excuses is an option. You have to search for your own explanations even when you’re told to accept the “facts”. You have to make mistakes and look like an idiot. You have to try and fail and try again. You have to run faster even though you’re out of breath. You have to be kind to people who have been cruel to you. You have to meet deadlines that are unreasonable and deliver results that are unparalleled. You have to be accountable for your actions even when things go wrong. You have to keep moving towards where you want to be no matter what’s in front of you. You have to do the hard things. The things that no one else is doing. The things that scare you. The things that make you wonder how much longer you can hold on. Those are the things that define you. Those are the things that make the difference between living a life of mediocrity or outrageous success. The hard things are the easiest things to avoid. To excuse away. To pretend like they don’t apply to you. The simple truth about how ordinary people accomplish outrageous feats of success is that they do the hard things that smarter, wealthier, more qualified people don’t have the courage — or desperation — to do. Do the hard things. You might be surprised at how amazing you really are. ### IKEA and the future of living URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/ikea-and-the-future-of-living/ Last updated: 2021-02-27T17:48:31.000Z The keyword guiding IKEA’s history is *innovation.* Ever since its start in 1943, the name IKEA has been synonymous with minimal, cheap furniture that can be bought and assembled in one’s own home. Its first innovation is also its most famous one – the flatpack furniture. By introducing this concept, and moving furniture assembly onto the user – contrary to what other furniture stores were doing – it allowed the company to reduce costs. This concept made IKEA the world’s biggest furniture store, with no real worldwide competition. This enviable position, allowed it to focus on other innovations and products that could improve the IKEA brand and allow the company to enter new markets. There were, of course, a number of high profile [mistakes](https://gizmodo.com/the-ikea-tv-reviewed-worse-than-assembling-100-bookshe-5919216?ref=karlsnotes.com), but how else would a company from Sweden make €12.4 billion profit, if not for continuously making mistakes and learning from them along the way? The IKEA furniture made in the 1950s might not be fitting for today or appropriate in 10 years, while the food sold by the company 20 years ago might not respect the increasing sustainable lifestyle of many of its customers. The creation of [SPACE10](https://space10.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com), IKEA’s very own [‘X](https://x.company/?ref=karlsnotes.com)’, the former Google X, has helped the company to experiment with new concepts and projects to address these challenges and keep the company on the forefront to new challenges. IKEA is changing how customers live, eat, and work, and its future will have a bigger role in our everyday lives. There are four main areas where I believe IKEA is spearheading new concepts, new technology, and better practices: 1. Food 2. Housing 3. the Smart Home 4. Augmented Reality I’ll delve deeper into each category and explain how IKEA is expected to be innovating in each, and then we’ll briefly look at how IKEA has the potential to rival Amazon, as it makes the jump from a furniture store to the everyday store. ### 1\. Food A few years after the flatpack furniture was invented, IKEA started opening IKEA Bistros and food markets, in its out-of-town stores. *“It’s difficult to do business with someone on an empty stomach.”* These were the words of IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad, who wanted to start serving food to the people spending whole days at IKEA stores out of the city. What better way to keep customers at your store than to offer them cheap AND good food? The meatball remains an IKEA favourite, and the word itself has become as synonyms to IKEA as the flatpack furniture. With millions of IKEA meatballs sold each year, you would think the company would not want to upset the cart by changing recipes and adding new items to the menu. However IKEA did just that, and in mid-2020 it rolled out its ‘[veggie balls](https://www.ikea.com/kr/en/p/allemansraetten-vegetable-balls-frozen-100-vegetables-40346434/?ref=karlsnotes.com)’ and the ‘[veggie hotdog](https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/this-is-ikea/sustainable-everyday/veggie-hot-dog-plant-based-goodness-pub166a3131?ref=karlsnotes.com)’ for public consumption. Two of the most famous IKEA food staples now have their vegetarian version, with the veggie balls producing around 15 to 20 times less carbon footprint than the meatballs. IKEA also joined forces with other organisations to buy sustainably farmed [coffee](https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/this-is-ikea/sustainable-everyday/patar-special-edition-from-uganda-with-love-a-very-special-single-origin-100-arabica-coffee-pub1e423691?ref=karlsnotes.com), and [tea](https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/this-is-ikea/sustainable-everyday/egentid-good-for-you-the-farmers-and-the-planet-pub561f3b31?ref=karlsnotes.com) and created the ‘IKEA Food [Better Chicken](https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/this-is-ikea/sustainable-everyday/ikea-food-better-chicken-pub4fcff351?ref=karlsnotes.com)’ programme which seeks to source chicken under strict animal welfare criteria. ![](https://i2.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5f9eb99db1a0428adda3ed5a_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F0d586b7c-d38b-4215-84a6-c66fc5f76825_1200x800.jpeg?w=640&ssl=1) Like other companies in the food sector, IKEA recognises the increasing number of individuals becoming aware of the carbon footprint needed to sustain the current consumption pattern. SPACE10 has been trying to build on the meatball’s legacy by creating new concepts which leave a much smaller carbon footprint, like meatballs made from artificial meat and those made from insects, which are not unconventional ideas in 2020, even if they have yet to enter the mainstream markets. The Lab also has a concept of a 3D printed meatball, which is more of an aesthetical project rather than a ready-to-serve meatball, however, this goes to show how SPACE10 is seeking to broaden the perspective of both IKEA itself, as well as its customers, to future possibilities in the food sector. ### 2\. Housing In the early 1990s, IKEA realised that the [increase in residential property prices](https://data.oecd.org/price/housing-prices.htm?ref=karlsnotes.com) is making it harder and harder for certain sections of the population looking to buy a home without having to break the bank. [BoKlok](https://www.boklok.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com) was born from an agreement between Swedish construction giants, Skanska, and IKEA, to build and design low-cost housing, complete with, of course, IKEA furnishing. Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland have been the first beneficiaries of this project, while the [United Kingdom](https://www.archpaper.com/2020/05/ikea-modular-boklok-development-offshoot-manufacturer/?ref=karlsnotes.com) will be the first country to host BoKlok housing outside of the Nordics. BoKlok, which was also called ‘[the flatpack taken to the next level](https://medium.com/@bartholomewhearn/the-flat-pack-taken-to-the-next-level-the-boklok-concept-26078e433b3f?ref=karlsnotes.com)’, prides itself in using as limited and as sustainable resources as possible. The design and materials used for the pre-fabricated blocks make the houses’ energy-efficient and environmentally sustainable. This modular housing technique, allows BoKlok to build up to 80% of the houses in a factory and then transport and assemble them to the construction site itself. ![BoKlok UK achieves planning acceptance on first UK development | www.skanska.co.uk](https://i0.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5f9eb99da95d27563a12bf17_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fe876dbf1-6044-4545-9c0c-99bb6e96fb3c_1200x630.jpeg?w=640&ssl=1) With BoKlok, IKEA has managed to infiltrate the housing market, and as housing prices continue to rise above median wages, the company will continue to find a market for low-cost housing. What made BoKlok successful, and continues to do so, is the cost-cutting every step of the way, with profits then being passed on to the consumer. A combination of cheap land, a single standard design, and large-volume manufacturing allows IKEA to create entire housing estates while eliminating brokers and their fees. Buying a flat with BoKlok is also as simple as buying a new bed frame from IKEA – you just have to register at the nearest IKEA store for available housing units. While this is already disruptive in the current housing market, IKEA, or rather IKEA’s SPACE10 has already come up with a BoKlok on steroids – a new concept for future housing and working environment. ‘[The Urban Village Project](https://www.urbanvillageproject.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com)’ shares the same aims of BoKlok, that of creating a sustainable and affordable way of living, but it also aims higher – to completely transform the housing market, by “bypassing the interests of short-term investors”. What this means is that the Project looks for financing by collaborating with “pension funds, future-oriented companies and municipalities” in order to drive down costs, and combine the project with co-operative structures to keep housing within the community. All managed through a neat-looking app. ![](https://i0.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5f9eb99d234ed0583a59caba_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F21b99d3b-2ea6-47b7-b930-5c8a9f0856ff_1200x675.jpeg?w=640&ssl=1) Related to this, is IKEA’s [announcement](https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/4/18652178/ikea-rognan-robot-murphy-bed-furniture-ori-living-democratic-design-days?ref=karlsnotes.com) that it will start to create robotic furniture for small spaces. Rolling out in places like Hong Kong and Japan, micro-apartments will be the first to feel the benefits of the Rognan furniture, which transforms easily depending on what you need to use at the time. The idea is that one will not use a certain section of the place while busy doing something else, like not using the bed if you’re on the sofa – and Rognan helps to maximise space accordingly. ![New IKEA collaboration features robotic furniture for small space living | 6sqft](https://i2.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5f9eb99ed5fd03adadf17e70_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F29718baf-50d5-4c9d-917e-55d18b183521_1000x563.gif?w=640&ssl=1) In the near future, I would also see IKEA getting into the workspaces sector, providing low-cost offices for freelancers and even startups looking to cut costs. Coworking is expected to grow to an estimated [$11.52 billion in 2023](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-coworking-spaces-market-2020-2030---covid-19-growth-deviations-trends--developments-competitive-landscape-analysis-301078785.html?ref=karlsnotes.com), with Europe, IKEA’s home territory, leading the way, which makes it easier for the company to integrate this sector into its current BoKlok partnership with Skanska. ### 3\. the Smart Home In more recent years, IKEA added smart home products in its catalogue. While the company was relatively late to the party, today the IKEA customer has a number of functional smart products to choose from and which can be easily connected through the IKEA Home smart app, as well as other third-party applications. In typical IKEA fashion, its mantra of ‘making not using space’, the company did not just copy other smart appliances – IKEA’s wireless chargers can be integrated into furniture, and a SONOS Bluetooth speaker is produced either as a bookshelf or as a lamp, and both work with Google Assistant, Alexa, and Siri voice assistants. This is certainly an area were IKEA will be looking to improve on. By creating its own smart technology as an integrated part of its furniture, the company would be able to get a better understanding of how its products are being used, for how long, and can even signal to the owner when that furniture needs repairing or replacing. ![The Review: Is the New Ikea x Sonos Speaker Worth It? - Western Living Magazine](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5f9eb99d04c5930384f862ec_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fe8f7e7b8-c1c0-42f4-825c-24b79e539dea_970x646.jpeg?w=640&ssl=1) A series of projects called ‘[Everyday Experiments](https://www.everydayexperiments.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com)’, by SPACE10, continue on this trend of making sure that the smart appliances being created are beneficial to the consumer. These experiments recognise the increasing multi-dimensional use of one’s house, from living quarters, to play areas, to work stations. The latter is an increasingly important part of one’s home, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Smart improvements to the house have to respect the serenity one looks for in a home, making life easier and more comfortable, while avoiding adding further technological distractions. There are also, of course, privacy issues when it comes to smart furniture or appliances, so IKEA would also be wary of further technological intrusiveness on its customers. Some of these experiments are more likely to be used in everyday situations than others, such as the one using [hand gestures](https://www.everydayexperiments.com/light-gestures?ref=karlsnotes.com) to control a light fitting, making it easier for someone to switch on/off or dim the lights without having to move. ![Image for post](https://i2.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5f9eb99d7943e0448eb6f49c_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F9bd14c8f-8475-47d4-85ce-df380139d4f9_900x504.png?w=640&ssl=1) While IKEA might need to collaborate with other technological companies, such as SONOS, and depend on Google, Amazon, and Apple for voice assistants in order to grow its smart ecosystem in the short term, its better understanding of the home and what tenants want from it, allow IKEA to be in a position to create superior, practical smart appliances, than other companies in the field. Björn Block, Business Leader at IKEA Home Smart, himself [said that](https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/18/21024497/ikea-smart-home-tech-sweden-furniture-sonos-meatballs-bjorn-block?ref=karlsnotes.com): “We’re (*IKEA*) definitely into the tech space, we’re into the digital space, and we really want to be here and really play this because I think that we can also make a difference.” Which leads us to the fourth and final area: ### 4\. Augmented Reality This area is very much linked to the Smart Home, but it deserves a separate section due to AR’s possible broad applications within one’s home, as well as IKEA’s and SPACE10’s extensive experiments in the field. The company has taken advantage of Apple’s ARKit and iOS11 to launch its own [IKEA Place](https://www.ikea.com/au/en/customer-service/mobile-apps/say-hej-to-ikea-place-pub1f8af050?ref=karlsnotes.com), an iPhone-only app (for now) which lets users interact better with their homes and IKEA products, before even visiting an IKEA store or its online marketplace. ‘IKEA Place’ offers the ability for smartphone users to look through their screens and interact with their real-life space, by placing IKEA products in the living room or bedroom. By being true to scale, it allows you to make an easier decision on which sofa, bed frame, or chair can fit within your space. By providing this value to IKEA customers, ‘IKEA Place’ proves itself to be an extension of the traditional store, rather than a separate app by the same company. IKEA’s chief digital officer neatly explained this as [“the store experience with the online experience”](https://www.warc.com/newsandopinion/news/ikeas%5Fnew%5Fapp%5Fstrategy%5Fand%5Fretails%5Faugmented%5Ffuture/42144?ref=karlsnotes.com). IKEA Place is, however, just the beginning of the company’s relationship with AR. New concepts are being developed as part of the ‘Everyday Experiments’ projects, such as [Shelve It](https://www.everydayexperiments.com/shelve-it?ref=karlsnotes.com), which lets users scan their walls and shows real-time options of how a certain type of shelf can be built in your room. Others, like [Point and Repair](https://www.everydayexperiments.com/point-and-repair?ref=karlsnotes.com) and [Light Filters](https://www.everydayexperiments.com/light-filters?ref=karlsnotes.com), allow a better understanding of one’s surroundings, the former by having your own private interior designer and the latter by helping you figure out how lighting changes the dynamic of a room, at different times, and different seasons. All of this directly available through an app. ### IKEA vs Amazon? What all of this means is that **the future of IKEA will not just be related to furniture**. Just as Amazon is not a company selling books exclusively anymore, **IKEA will be playing a much larger role in our lives in the near future**. The two may even be each other’s biggest competitor in areas such as smart home appliances and augmented reality or the food sector. IKEA is also aiming to [reach 3 billion customers by 2025](https://www.warc.com/newsandopinion/news/mini%5Fstores%5Fikeas%5Fstrategy%5Fto%5Freach%5Fhalf%5Fthe%5Fworlds%5Fpopulation/41177?ref=karlsnotes.com), by investing in city-centre locations rather than out of town stores, and offer some of the more requested products and services. This opens new possibilities for IKEA, including the ability to use these city-centre locations to push forward its food products, directly competing with convenience stores like Amazon Go. Unlike Amazon, however, IKEA is putting the environment, sustainability, and human health, front and centre in every product and service it creates. As each section above shows, as well as the recent announcements that the company is [removing non-rechargeable alkaline batteries](https://newsroom.inter.ikea.com/News/ikea-to-remove-non-rechargeable-alkaline-batteries-by-2021/s/bd0e6e55-ccc4-46d6-8b37-bb1f9dfa24ff?ref=karlsnotes.com) from its stores by October 2021, and is using its supply chains [to produce personal protective equipment](https://newsroom.inter.ikea.com/News/ikea-contributes-to-protection-of-m-decins-sans-fronti-res-healthcare-workers-during-the-covid-19-pa/s/310a89a4-11df-4a31-a086-e2b8f11575e3?ref=karlsnotes.com), IKEA is putting itself in line with the changing habits of its customers and potential new ones. All of these factors make it even more plausible that a brand like IKEA has the potential to grow to become one of the greatest cultural forces in the world. ### Analysing famous speeches using Metaranx - an AI no code platform URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/analysing-famous-speeches-using-metaranx-an-ai-no-code-platform/ Last updated: 2021-12-24T09:23:24.000Z *Update - Metaranx is unfortunately no longer operational, but there are several other platforms which can do this.* I recently received an invite from Metaranx to try out their new platform, an AI no code tool which currently lets users analyse the emotional sentiment of text using pre-built AI tools. I decided to try out the tool by analysing parts of two famous historical speeches – the “We shall fight on the beaches” speech, which British Prime Minister Winston Churchill gave to the House of Commons in 1940, and the ‘Quit India’ speech given by the anti-colonial Indian nationalist, Mahatma Gandhi. Two politically charged speeches, which were specifically delivered to elicit emotions in their followers. As part of its launch, Metranx gave out $10 worth of credit, which allows you to use the platform. $10 seemed quite generous from Metaranx, as each sentence costs only a few cents to analyse. ![](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fafbd41af3facf2dbb52fc7_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fed93c721-6bb3-4617-b719-f8b83620881f_1366x654.png?w=640&ssl=1) For the first speech, I used this part: ***Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.*** As you can see, this is a very emotionally charged section of the speech, and the part for which the speech is remembered for. Metaranx separates each sentence in order to be able to analyse it better. It then shows the sentiment; which refers to the emotion (positive or negative) in the sentence, and to the magnitude which is the *amount* of emotion in the text. Try to guess where every sentence falls into – does it show positive or negative emotions? Then compare the result to the analysis by Metaranx. ![](https://i2.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fafbd412cfc95b653f04342_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fd58db16a-3b7c-47b4-9c13-b57eb7081170_1349x654.png?w=640&ssl=1) The result from the first three sentences, seem to fit in within emotional stance of the speech. ‘States surrendering to the Nazis’ is given a negative score, while ‘fighting to “defend our island”’ was given a 30% positive emotional score. At the same time however, the most famous sentence in the speech did not elicit a response at all. This might be because of the length of the sentence itself, but I still found it strange. Now, the ‘Quit India’ speech: ***“Ours is not a drive for power, but purely a non-violent fight for India’s independence. In a violent struggle, a successful general has been often known to effect a military coup and to set up a dictatorship. But under the Congress scheme of things, essentially non-violent as it is, there can be no room for dictatorship. A non-violent soldier of freedom will covet nothing for himself, he fights only for the freedom of his country. The Congress is unconcerned as to who will rule, when freedom is attained. The power, when it comes, will belong to the people of India, and it will be for them to decide to whom it placed in the entrusted.”*** And the result: ![](https://i2.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fafbd4117630614a0e5e9ac_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Ffdc878ab-4f17-47ea-be30-a2966344766f_1061x424.png?resize=582%2C232&ssl=1) Although both speeches talk about resistance and fighting against an enemy, the paragraph from Gandhi’s speech seems heavier and has a larger magnitude because of the words used. All in all, I believe that Metaranx has the potential to grow into a useful tool for marketers and researchers. It is still in its early stages, and there definitely has to be some improvement in the AI. The analysis provided is currently too much based on the definition of single words and the implicit emotion they bring up. Use of words like violent, even when the prefix ‘non-’ is added, automatically registers as a negative emotion. Other than that, I really look forward to the full version of the platform, especially to test out the image analysis section. ### Building a No code app for a friend's side hustle URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/building-a-no-code-app-for-a-friends-side-hustle/ Last updated: 2021-01-18T19:10:30.000Z One of my friends started baking and selling pizzas during the COVID-19 quasi-lockdown. His way of reaching people consisted solely of a Facebook page and sharing posts on his personal profile and a local Facebook group. People could either contact him on the page, directly on messenger or by calling on a personal mobile number. All this would, of course, divert his attention from actual pizza-making, so I decided to try and create an easy pizza ordering app on Glide. Here’s how I approached this app, which is also what I usually do on Glide with other apps: 1. Creating a Google sheet First of all, you have to decide what the app is being built for. In this case, we want people to buy pizza as seemlessly as possible. It is also important not to get carried away with adding options, and keeping the app as simple as possible – an MVP. For this app we just need to display the pizza available, add an image, a name, maybe the ingredients and the price, of course. I usually start off with a few items at first and not list everything in the beginning, then add them as I go along. [![](https://i0.wp.com/cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37ee1f1d-826b-48fc-84d9-5198ffad460e_1307x553.png?resize=620%2C262&ssl=1)](https://i1.wp.com/cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f%5Fauto,q%5Fauto:good,fl%5Fprogressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37ee1f1d-826b-48fc-84d9-5198ffad460e%5F1307x553.png?ssl=1&ref=karlsnotes.com) 2\. The Glide app Then we have to decide on a layout for the home screen. For this app, I was torn between Tiles and Cards, but went with Tiles, as I thought it fits better in this case. Since branding material was already available from the Facebook page, I went ahead and used the logo, the pictures of different pizza, ingredients and prices. [![](https://i1.wp.com/cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2562f3b8-614a-4439-b948-720df6394eb6_1366x654.png?resize=618%2C296&ssl=1)](https://i1.wp.com/cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f%5Fauto,q%5Fauto:good,fl%5Fprogressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2562f3b8-614a-4439-b948-720df6394eb6%5F1366x654.png?ssl=1&ref=karlsnotes.com) 1. Extras For this app I also added an inline list, which shows up when a customer opens one of the pizza tabs, as shown below. This serves as a kind of upsell, and entices the customer to add another pizza for checkout. I also added a ‘favourite’ section, where the customer can favourite a pizza, just by adding a personal email address. [![](https://i0.wp.com/cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5a10ec1-1aab-4495-8fdf-a91c1ccc29b2_1366x654.png?resize=617%2C295&ssl=1)](https://i2.wp.com/cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f%5Fauto,q%5Fauto:good,fl%5Fprogressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5a10ec1-1aab-4495-8fdf-a91c1ccc29b2%5F1366x654.png?ssl=1&ref=karlsnotes.com) And, that’s it. A pizza ordering app on Glide, created in a few hours. You can check out how it looks by clicking [here.](https://pizzatalbaker.glideapp.io/?ref=karlsnotes.com) ### Do political stickers work? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/do-political-stickers-work/ Last updated: 2021-09-02T10:42:13.000Z Go to any major European city and you’ll find dozens of stickers on road signs, bus stops and billboards. Each with a different message about the politics of a candidate, a political party or just a general pro or anti something message. I believe that in the US the bumper sticker is a more common occurrence, especially during a Presidential election year, but it serves the same purpose. However, do you ever stop and think whether these stickers ever manage to change someone’s opinion about that specific policy, party or candidate? Would you change an opinion, held for the majority of your life, just because someone put a sticker on a bus stop sign where you walk by everyday? Probably not. So what is their use? I believe that the purpose of a political sticker is three-fold and they are all connected to each other: - A political sticker in a public place shows brand loyalty. The person putting up the sticker feels involved in spreading whatever message the sticker holds, which increases the loyalty to the political party or cause. This is kind of like when Apple distributes stickers with their products. People into the company or its products want to show their allegiance to Apple and they put up the stickers on their laptops, diaries or on their cars, to show that they are proud to form part of that specific group. - When people look at these stickers and happen to already support the message found on them, they will internally continue to confirm that their position on this issue is the right one. Someone sees a lot of Apple stickers – on the laptops of friends, maybe on the back of a car, billboards in the street etc – and subconsciously starts to think that he or she did the right choice in buying that latest iPhone. People always feel that they want to be part of something bigger and seeing other people supporting Apple or your favourite political party, helps to keep you engaged. - Third, political stickers work as the first step in the sales funnel of politics; brand awareness. The Apple marketer knows that you will not buy one of their products the first time you see one of their ads. Case studies have shown that for a person to start to take interest in your product, [they need to come across the ad at least seven times.](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-7-times-7-rule-in-marketing?ref=karlsnotes.com) The more one sees an ad, the more one will subconsciously think of the product the next time he needs something similar. In politics, the individual does not need to buy stuff, but the idea works in the same way. This is why political marketers like Topham Guerin use ‘shit posting’ to reach millions of people through silly memes, and which then can be reached with a serious political message. First, they create awareness about the issue and the political party they are promoting, then they reel in those who are interested in the message. This reminds me of that scene in the movie ‘Focus’ with Will Smith and Margot Robbie, where a well known gambler was primed with the number 55 all day, hidden is everyday events, until they win an outlandish bet against him using the same number. Do you agree? Do you think political stickers are effective? ### Monopoly: the board game URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/monopoly-the-board-game/ Last updated: 2023-10-09T09:30:13.000Z In 1903, Elizabeth Magie, a self-declared left-wing feminist, patented the Landlord’s Game, the forerunner of the now world-famous Monopoly board game. Today, Monopoly is more associated with capitalism than any left-wing ideology, but in the early years of the 20th century, the original goal of the game was not to see how much wealth a player could hoard (while fighting with his family members). At the time, Magie was an avid follower of [Henry George](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry%5FGeorge?ref=karlsnotes.com), a US economist who advocated for a tax on land, as he believed that the economic value derived from land should be shared between all members of society. The idea was not resonating with the US public and Magie wanted to find a better, easier way to teach the public about why the single land tax was important. She knew that speaking about the proposed tax reform in Town Halls and public discussions would not attract new supporters for the cause. So what did she do? Magie decided that a board game would be the ideal medium to reach people who did not follow politics. [The Landlord’s Game](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FLandlord%27s%5FGame?ref=karlsnotes.com) was born and in Magie’s own words the game “is a practical demonstration of the present system of land-grabbing with all its usual outcomes and consequences”. However, this marketing strategy did not work as she intended, and the game did not spread as far as she hoped. It was only when Charles Darrow played the game at his friends’ house and went on to sell it to Parker Brothers himself that the board game grew to what we now know as Monopoly. Although the original aims of Magie with the game were lost over the years, she has now reached more people through her invention than she probably thought it would, back in 1902\. On the other hand, the game did become a symbol of the ugly side of capitalism and the hoarding of economic wealth, so maybe Magie did succeed after all? ### A branding overhaul for Austria's ÖVP URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/a-branding-overhaul-for-austrias-ovp/ Last updated: 2021-01-18T18:57:44.000Z In 2017, the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) had a slogan which said **‘Time for something new’**, despite it having been in government for 30 years. That same year, its new leader [Sebastian Kurz](https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz?ref=karlsnotes.com) rebranded the party as the **‘New People’s Party’** and changed its colour from black to cyan in a move to appeal to more voters and move away from the history of the party, including its long stint in government. Sebastian Kurz’s age, 31 at the time, also played an important part in helping the party look like it was brand new and young. Austrians did not want the ÖVP but they wanted Kurz and “his new party”. The old logo looked like this: ![Image](https://i2.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5ff0e0fb10dfc588c3b38dfc_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fba53c5a7-5711-4048-8538-6e1a1867771c_3000x1650.png?w=640&ssl=1) while the new logo is this one, a complete overhaul in the branding of a 75 year old party: ![Image](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5ff0e0fb24cebad0e49e1b69_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F0e3728e5-8505-4f68-91ce-614df00bb03f_533x201.png?w=640&ssl=1) The rebanding worked and in the 2017 National Council elections, the ÖVP returned to government with 31.5% of the vote. ‍ ### Facebook of the 1940s URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/facebook-of-the-1940s/ Last updated: 2022-11-10T18:35:42.000Z While World War II was nearing its end, the practise of data gathering to sell products or services directly to the consumer, was already in existence in the US. ### Data for sale Specific data on someone’s lifestyle was gathered in a list according to different interests and was used by private businesses so that they could know who to mail advertisements to – i.e potential clients and not just to everyone with a postal address. As in the case above, these list would contain specifics such as the valuation of your house and how much you give for charity. People buying insurance at low rates would not be sent direct mail with advertisements for high-end products. The lists were so specific that they included data on people who buy fountain pens or even one for left-handed golf players. ### Political data gathering In the 1960’s, the publishers of these lists realised that they could sell much more than just appliances and food – they could sell political candidates through direct mail. So political consultants started renting out member lists from organisations such as newspapers and boat owners associations, and in turn these were used by political campaigns to reach potential voters. Campaigns also made use of [A/B testing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A/B%5Ftesting?ref=karlsnotes.com) by mailing out different versions of the same message asking for a donation, in order for them to gauge the response to each version and adapt accordingly. ### Today ###### *The same ad for the* *[campaign of Keir Starmer](https://karlsnotes.com/how-did-keir-starmer-win/?ref=karlsnotes.com)* *was targeted to different demographics:* ![](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fafbde5674b0b7d51754f85_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F8d412f96-88f5-4f9b-b116-9dedf847261a_1023x411.png?w=640&ssl=1) All this is very similar to what users on Facebook and other social media have been doing over the past few years to sell items online or for political purposes. While direct mail is still in use today, data gathering is, of course, much more efficient and scalable, than that of the 1940’s or the 1960’s. At the same time, the core idea of targeting a group of people that is technically more open to your message has stayed the same. Today, political parties, especially minor ones who lack financial resources, can gather their own data for free using tools such as Facebook Pages, to get a better understanding of who is connecting with them. Online platforms have made it possible for campaigns to maximise their budget and reach an even bigger audience with tens of euros, than they would with a roadside billboard campaign worth thousands of euros. In the example above, the campaign of Keir Starmer for [leader of the UK Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%5FLabour%5FParty%5Fleadership%5Felection?ref=karlsnotes.com) used the same exact ad on Facebook, but it was targeted to different demographics. In turn, this helped them gauge who better responds to said ad, similar to what political consultants had done with direct mail, 60 years before. --- *The information and the first photo were taken from* [*The Saturday Evening Post*](https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2019/12/the-junk-mail-men-selling-your-data-for-a-century/?ref=karlsnotes.com)*.* ### How did Keir Starmer win? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/how-did-keir-starmer-win/ Last updated: 2021-01-18T18:45:02.000Z I recently wrote about the online campaigns of the three candidates for the leadership of the Labour Party in the United Kingdom. Out of the three, Keir Starmer successfully clinched the nomination with the help of a formidable online campaign on Facebook and Instagram amongst other social media platforms. Keir Starmer’s campaign had a staggering 1,689 ads on Facebook and Instagram, compared to the 79 ads of Lisa Nandys’ and the 105 ads that the Long-Bailey campaign targeted between 11th February and 2nd April 2020\. A lot of these ads had the same copy, picture or video, but they were targeted towards different people or had different combinations of copy and picture. Out of these 1,689 ads by the Starmer campaign, an approximate 794 ads where targeted during the month of March 2020, which was the last full month before Labour Party members voted on 2nd April 2020. These were all the captions used in ads targeted during March 2020, with the most used in bold: - **Another future is possible but we have to fight for it.** - **Johnson is dishonest, untrustworthy and unprincipled. Labour must be united in taking the fight to him.** - **We must restore trust in the Labour Party as a force for good.** - **Together, we can win.** - I will push power, wealth and opportunity away from Whitehall. - Incredible to have the support of Helena Kennedy. Another future is possible. - Read my 10 pledges to maintain our radical values and work tirelessly to get Labour in to power. - I will maintain our radical values and work tirelessly to get Labour in to power. - United, we are unstoppable. The captions above and the number of times they were used in ads: ![](https://i2.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc94b40535cab217f57c366_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fd4f4cb20-5301-46d4-8232-f58bbeb08428_1519x509.png?w=640&ssl=1) I believe that the four most used captions help to portray the typical UK Labour party member; someone who wants to leave the defeats of the past behind, and unite the party to win future elections against Johnson’s Conservative Party and its politics. ### Towards a new country in Europe? URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/towards-a-new-country-in-europe/ Last updated: 2024-01-06T11:24:37.000Z On Monday, Politico Europe released an article about the increasing sectarian discourse by Flemish nationalists about the future of Belgium. You can read the whole article [here](https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-coronavirus-the-flemish-independence-nationalist-exit-strategy/?ref=karlsnotes.com), but the argument mainly centres on how COVID-19 has accelerated the need for “for a “confederalist” Belgium, in which Flanders and Wallonia would not exactly be independent but would only give such powers as they want to the federal government”. While problems relating to the division of powers in the country, have long been discussed, the current epidemic brought up further difficulties in having several authorities with the same competence but under different governments,. In this case, on issues of health and clashing jurisdictions of both the federal and regional governments. What I would like to point out here is that the increase in this rhetoric by the main Flemish nationalist party, the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), could be due to the increase in support for a rival party Vlaams Belang (VB). In a poll conducted at the beginning of March, so before the full effect of the epidemic was being felt, N-VA was down to [20.7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion%5Fpolling%5Ffor%5Fthe%5F2024%5FBelgian%5Ffederal%5Felection?ref=karlsnotes.com#cite%5Fnote-Het%5FLaatste%5FNieuws%5F2020-03-14-1) of the Flemish vote from the 24.8% reached in May 2019. Vlaams Belang, on the other hand, went from 18.5% of the Flemish vote in May 2019, to [28.0%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion%5Fpolling%5Ffor%5Fthe%5F2024%5FBelgian%5Ffederal%5Felection?ref=karlsnotes.com#cite%5Fnote-Het%5FLaatste%5FNieuws%5F2020-03-14-1) in March 2020\. Polls conducted on a [national level](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/belgium/?ref=karlsnotes.com) also don’t look so good for the N-VA. While N-VA has also favoured a more independent Flanders, in the article, the N-VA President is calling for a ‘Belgium 2.0’ and a “confederalist Belgium” and not a completely independent nation. VB is more outspoken on the need to have “an independent Flemish state”. Its call for “independence, as the best way to secure the future and prosperity of Flanders”, may attract voters to its side. ![](https://i0.wp.com/karlsnotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/5fc94ada535cabd9cc57c0ae_https3A2F2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fa0514c0c-21a8-45a0-9579-bf488c276dab_835x499.png?resize=640%2C382&ssl=1) ### Burundi's 2020 election URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/burundis-2020-election/ Last updated: 2023-01-10T15:04:56.000Z Burundians will be voting for the next President and their new Deputies at the National Assembly on 20th May 2020\. This will be the first election without the current President since 2005, and is bound to be an interesting one to follow, not least due to the COVID-19 crisis, which the current administration has shrugged off because the country has [“God’s protection”](https://www.france24.com/en/20200410-burundi-shrugs-off-pandemic-citing-god-s-protection?ref=karlsnotes.com). The campaign officially started on 27th April, a 3 week-long marathon for the political parties – which are very much based along ethnic lines – to convince voters that they are their best choice to lead the country. There are 7 candidates for President but the main candidates are Evariste Ndayishimiye from the National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD–FDD), who is being presented as the “heir” of current President Nkurunziza [on election posters](https://www.africanews.com/2020/04/27/campaigning-starts-in-burundi-ahead-of-may-20-polls/?ref=karlsnotes.com), and Agathon Rwasa from National Council for Liberty (CNL), a former Hutu leader. Another interesting candidate in the race is Dieudonné Nahimana, a civil society leader, who is standing as an independent, and is basing his campaign on bringing people together despite their different ethnicity. Apart from the fact that this is the first Presidential election since 2005 without the candidature of President Nkurunziza, this is also a different election because Burundi is one of the few countries in the world to still hold elections in the current public health crisis spreading around the world. On 27th April 2020, Burundi had 12 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country, with 4 recoveries and one death. This is bound to make it harder for political parties and candidates to campaign. Whereas in other countries, as in the case of the United States, electoral campaigns have the benefit of moving their operations online, in countries like Burundi, where [internet access is not available to more than 90% of the population, and social media use is at a lowly 4.5%](https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2020-burundi?ref=karlsnotes.com), campaigns have to find other outlets, especially [opposition parties](https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/27/burundi-campaigns-begin-amid-clampdown?ref=karlsnotes.com), which have no control over state media and other tools reserved for Government parties. [Campaigns & Elections](https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/lessons-from-campaigning-in-the-developing-world-during-covid-19?ref=karlsnotes.com) expects campaigns in developing countries such as Burundi to turn to radio, particularly regional/community radio, which is bound to reach more people and still keep expenses low. The issue of funding is important here as Burundian law forbids political parties to get external funding and their main source of income is membership fees. In a study conducted in 2015 by a think tank, it was noted that only [“the ruling party, the CNDD-FDD and the former single party, UPRONA”](https://regionweek.com/what-to-expect-during-the-upcoming-electoral-campaign-in-burundi/?ref=karlsnotes.com) had sufficient means to fight an election. Another election tool being used in this election is person-to-person texting and this is bound to be used extensively in Burundi, [where 59% of the population use mobile phones.](https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2020-burundi?ref=karlsnotes.com) A regional site, [Region Week](https://regionweek.com/what-to-expect-during-the-upcoming-electoral-campaign-in-burundi/?ref=karlsnotes.com), thinks that SMSs will be central to the election campaigns throughout the next few weeks, and campaign managers have already prepared their databases full of phone numbers to start shooting off campaign messages and updates to supporters and potential voters. Despite the use of these tools however, COVID-19 will not be stopping the traditional large public gatherings, with [political parties busing in supporters](https://www.channelstv.com/2020/04/27/burundi-launches-poll-campaign-despite-covid-19-fears/?ref=karlsnotes.com) from all over the country to kickoff the election campaign. These gatherings are expected to feature speeches and political songs which in Burundi usually deal with promoting the good character of the respective presidential candidate. At the same time, Burundian electoral campaigns have been reported to use provocative language to galvanize their base in the past, and during these public meetings and throughout the next weeks, the language used will be no different, according to Region Week. [Local political commentators](https://regionweek.com/what-to-expect-during-the-upcoming-electoral-campaign-in-burundi/?ref=karlsnotes.com) expect the election campaigns to revolve around the following issues: peace and security versus refugee repatriation, the economy and jobs versus corruption and sovereignty, tackling justice versus Truth and Reconciliation, industrial agriculture versus revenue sharing, and concerning rural electrification and water versus ways to fund such infrastructural projects. ### UK Labour Leadership election: the online campaign - Part 2 URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/uk-labour-leadership-election-the-online-campaign-part-2/ Last updated: 2023-01-10T15:02:05.000Z [Back in February](https://www.karlsnotes.com/uk-labour-leadership-election-the-online-campaign/) I had published a post regarding the social media following and number of ads promoted by the three contestants for leadership of the UK Labour Party, as well as a former contestant. The voting for the leader by members of the Labour Party, closed on 2nd April at midday and results were announced on Saturday 4th April. [Keir Starmer was declared Leader](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/04/keir-starmer-wins-labour-leadership-election?ref=karlsnotes.com) of the Labour Party and Leader of H.M Opposition with 56.2% of the votes, followed by Rebecca Long-Bailey with 27.6% and Lisa Nandy with 16.2% of the votes. In this post, I will show how the social media following of the three candidates changed between 11th February 2020, when the first readings were taken, and 2nd April, when the voting closed. We will also look at Twitter, Facebook and Instagram engagement rates of the campaigns in the past few days and I make some general observations at the end of the post including a brief overview of the number of ads published by the campaigns. *Readings were taken from the Twitter, Instagram and Facebook pages of the candidates on 2nd April 2020 after midday, when the voting closes, and numbers were rounded to the nearest hundred. Statistics on the number of ads were taken from the Facebook Ads Library which tracks political ads on Instagram and Facebook. Twitter forbids political advertisements on its platform.* ### Twitter 🐦 When it comes to Twitter, [Starmer](https://twitter.com/Keir%5FStarmer?s=20&ref=karlsnotes.com) held the largest following in both readings, no doubt due to his previous position as Shadow Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, which made him a well known personality with Labour Party members and UK nationals, ever since he was appointed in 2016\. Between 11th February and 2nd April, he also managed to increase his Twitter followers to more than 334 thousand, i.e. 24,200 more followers or a 7.6% increase. The other candidates have also seen an increase in their following: [Rebecca Long-Bailey](https://twitter.com/RLong%5FBailey?s=20&ref=karlsnotes.com) had 12,000 more followers on 2nd April, an 8.9% increase, while [Lisa Nandy](https://twitter.com/lisanandy?s=20&ref=karlsnotes.com) obtained 15,200 new followers, an increase of 12.8%. Twitter is the only social media platform analysed which places Long-Bailey in second place, according to the number of followers. This is also the platform where we see the biggest difference in the number of followers obtained in this specific period, especially between Starmer and the two other candidates. One has to also keep in mind that [Twitter has banned political advertising](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/technology/twitter-political-ads-ban.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) from its platform, so the campaigns could not create ads to increase their following and therefore had to rely on organic reach. According to the [phlanx.com Engagment Calculator Manager](https://phlanx.com/engagement-calculator-manager?ref=karlsnotes.com), Keir Starmer won the engagement rate as well on Twitter, where in the final few days he scored a 2.32%, on an average of 8,728 likes and 1,615 retweets. Lisa Nandy came in second with a 1.63% engagement rate on Twitter, and an average of 1,993 likes and 305 retweets, while Long-Bailey had a 0.58% engagement rate from an average of 624 likes and 246 retweets. ### Instagram 📷 [Keir Starmer](https://www.instagram.com/keirstarmer/?hl=en&ref=karlsnotes.com) was also in the lead on Instagram, ending up with 25,000 followers by 2nd April. This represents 5,000 more followers than on 11th February, an increase of 25%. The runner-up here was [Lisa Nandy](https://www.instagram.com/lisanandymp/?hl=en&ref=karlsnotes.com), who saw an increase of 2,200 followers, which marks a 48.9% increase from the original reading, while [Rebecca Long-Bailey](https://www.instagram.com/rebeccalongbailey/?hl=en&ref=karlsnotes.com), who started off with a remarkably low following on Instagram, saw an increase of 200%, or 3,400 more followers than on 11th February. According to the same [Engagement Calculator Manager](https://phlanx.com/engagement-calculator-manager?ref=karlsnotes.com), Starmer had the highest engagement rate on Instagram with 7.41%, an average of 2,669 likes and 162 comments on his last few posts. The runner-up in the election, Long-Bailey, recorded an engagement rate of 5.86% with an average of 303 likes and 14 comments, while Nandy scored 4.96% on the engagement rate, with an average of 323 likes and 30 comments in the final few posts on her Instagram profile. ### Facebook 👍 As in the case of Instagram, [Starmer](https://www.facebook.com/KeirStarmerLabour/) and [Nandy](https://www.facebook.com/LisaNandyMP) also had the lead on Facebook. Starmer increased his following from 25,700 to 29,500 likes, an increase of 3,800 likes or 14.8% on the first reading. Lisa Nandy, with the second highest like count on Facebook among the three, saw her likes increase 17.6% or 2,100 more likes than on the 11th February reading. While, [Long-Bailey](https://www.facebook.com/rebeccaforleader/) managed a 60% increase on the original like count, with 3,000 more likes on 2nd April. An interesting observation that must be made here is that Rebecca Long-Bailey used a seperate Facebook page for her leadership campaign, created specifically for her candidacy. Ads on Facebook were also being promoted through this page – [‘Rebecca for Leader’](https://www.facebook.com/rebeccaforleader), rather than on her [official personal Facebook page](https://www.facebook.com/RebeccaLongBailey). This, of course, put her in a disadvantage with the other candidates, who all used their official personal page to campaign for leadership. This makes the 8000 like count on her campaign page even more impressive, but it may have hindered her potential organic reach, by not using her personal [28,600 like-strong page](https://www.facebook.com/RebeccaLongBailey) in the campaign. If we put the [Engagement Calculator Manager](https://phlanx.com/engagement-calculator-manager?ref=karlsnotes.com) at work here as well, we will find that Lisa Nandy won the platform, with her 8.62% engagement rate on an average of 1,000 likes and 235 comments. Starmer came in second place with an average engagement rate of 4% from an average of 1,279 likes and 408 comments on his posts. Meanwhile Long-Bailey had a 2.66% engagement rate with 181 likes and 33 comments on her average post in the last few days. The story is quite different on her [personal page](https://www.facebook.com/RebeccaLongBailey) however, where she recevied a 21.82% engagement rate with an average of 5,300 likes and 947 comments. However, this might be the result of her concession post, which received a huge number of likes and comments, when compared to other posts. ### General comments 🕵️ [Social media following alone cannot](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053168017720008?ref=karlsnotes.com), of course, account for Keir Starmer’s victory in the Labour leadership election – indeed, Lisa Nandy places second in two of the three platforms, while Long-Bailey placed second in the leadership election with close to 11 points more than Nandy. At the same time however, the analysis above does gives us an indication on the level of popularity that Starmer enjoyed within the Party and why he won 56% of the vote. An online campaign is not just about the number of likes or followers obtain. Facebook and Instagram, which still allow political advertising, have been used extensively to push forward ads by all three candidates, but especially by Keir Starmer. Indeed, during my research I found out that while Lisa Nandy targeted 79 ads between 11th February and 2nd April, and Long-Bailey promoted 105 ads in the same time frame, Starmer’s campaign had a staggering 1,689 ads on the Facebook and Instagram platforms. What’s more is that these ads, where A/B tested throughout the campaign, which made it possible for the Starmer campaign to target the best copy, picture or video to the most receptive audience. It would be interesting to delve deeper into Starmer’s online campaign, as it seems to have been the most formidable when compared to the other two. I plan to write a stand-alone post on this in the near future, where we will analyse how Facebook and Instagram might have played a crucial role in Starmer’s win on Saturday. ### Political campaigning in the time of Corona URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/political-campaigning-in-the-time-of-corona/ Last updated: 2021-01-18T09:28:00.000Z The Novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, has spread around the world at a phenomenal rate. Many institutions and private businesses have had to shutter down, white-collar workers started to work from home, and people in general have been left in a sense of disbelief at how a virus could literally stop everything in its tracks. Many people, especially those following the current US primaries, have realised that this is indeed a real threat when both Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders starting to cancel their rallies in order to help stop the spread of the virus. Sanders himself has said that the coronavirus [“has obviously impacted (the campaign’s) ability to communicate with people in the traditional way, and that’s hurting (the campaign).”](https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fhomenews%2Fcampaign%2F487576-the-memo-coronavirus-scrambles-the-art-of-campaigning&data=02%7C01%7Ckarl-anthony.borg%40gov.mt%7C6f53af597b3d460b94ee08d7cb2ceb23%7C34cdd9f55db849bcacba01f65cca680d%7C0%7C0%7C637201266094243803&sdata=LhUgs4YJVIHWXKncxlylCbayPZzeTuYZVZRvZPXbma0%3D&reserved=0&ref=karlsnotes.com) The 15th March debate was held with no crowd in the studio, while the live stream victory speech of Vice President Biden, once the Florida, Illinois and Arizona elections were over, continued to cement the fact that this was not going to be an ordinary political campaign anymore, and that the candidates would have to find workarounds to the usual campaign playbook. And it is not just campaigns in the US that have to adapt. Many countries are now postponing elections that were going to be held in March or April 2020, including the [national elections of North Macedonia](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/03/17/north-macedonia-postpones-april-polls-over-pandemic/?ref=karlsnotes.com) and Presidential elections in the non-recognised territory of [Northern Cyprus](https://www.france24.com/en/20200319-turkish-cypriots-postpone-election-over-coronavirus?ref=karlsnotes.com). In other elections that were allowed to continue, such as those in France, Germany and Switzerland, political campaigns have had to adapt their strategies. ![](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fca0005491f406058902d14_Screenshot_2020-12-04%20Europe%20Elects%20on%20Twitter.png?w=640&ssl=1) #### So how can political campaigns keep up their momentum and continue to organize amidst the coronavirus crisis? [Higher Ground Labs](https://highergroundlabs.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com), a US-based company which is trying to build an ecosystem for progressive technology, has said that with the coronavirus outbreak in the US, and as less volunteers and staffers are able to go canvassing, campaigns will have to resort to other methods of making contact with the voters. Some of the tools they propose include peer-to-peer SMS; to maintain contact with donors and check whether the individual is registered to vote, phone tools like ‘automatic dialler’ and ‘robocalls’, which can move this essential part of a campaign from the phone-bank to the home, as well as platforms which allow supporters of the campaign to send emails, texts and calls to family members or friends who might be interested. Higher Ground Labs also sees increasing reliance on postal mail, one of the first original political marketing techniques, which although is less scalable, has often proven to be impactful on certain sections of society, who do not or prefer not to use social media. At the same time however, political campaigns will have to scale their use of social media, even more than they currently are. Online campaigning is not just Facebook or Instagram posts – Senator Bernie Sanders hosted ‘[Fireside Chats](https://berniesanders.com/fireside-chat-bernie/?ref=karlsnotes.com)’, which is also one of the ways campaigns can continue organizing through this crisis, as advocated by [Mobilize](https://www.mobilize.us/?ref=karlsnotes.com). Mobilize, a US-based ‘events management and volunteer recruitment platform’, has seen an huge increase in demand for its products. In the seven days preceding 11 March 2020 alone, the company has seen [more than 50,000 signups](https://medium.com/@LetsMobilizeUS/7-organizing-strategies-in-a-time-of-social-distancing-6468b80e40e1?ref=karlsnotes.com). While urging political campaigns to prioritize the safety of volunteers and staffers, they have also issued their own guide on they can keep up their momentum. Mobilize argues that campaigns can continue to function by making use of remote phone and text-banking, as well as friend-to-friend outreach through online events. The guide also makes reference to the online trainings conducted by the Elizabeth Warren campaign, which were successful in sharing policy trainings to supporters via webinar format. The supporters would then be able to advocate for the policies of the campaign more comfortably, as they feel more informed. This is also something proposed by another company involved in digital and field organizing, [The Tuesday Company](https://www.tuesdaycompany.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com). It set up an online website, aptly named ‘[Organizing while Corona](https://www.organizingwhilecorona.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com)’, which lets you download a short 2-page guide with six ideas about how campaigns can “sustain their momentum and engage supporters during this public health crisis.” One of these ideas is in fact what Mobilized is proposing – moving in-person events to online-only events where speakers and trainings are held through online tools such as Zoom and Google Hangouts. The guide also proposes the use of Facebook Live by candidates themselves and the creation of DIY user-generated content, which is then disseminated through the campaign’s online platforms. Moving away from the United States to countries that still held elections, such as France, the local elections held there saw a [historically low turnout](https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-pushes-french-local-election-turnout-to-historic-low/?ref=karlsnotes.com), with the Government ending up postponing the second round. This has brought into question whether the first round should also be cancelled because of the unusually low turnout, and if they stand, whether parties in second place will have an unfair advantage due to the longer amount of time to re-group and even go on to win the election. https://twitter.com/Elliott\_Fudge/status/1239287438759124993?ref\_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1239287438759124993%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1\_&ref\_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.embedly.com%2Fwidgets%2Fmedia.html%3Ftype%3Dtext2Fhtmlkey%3D96f1f04c5f4143bcb0f2e68c87d65febschema%3Dtwitterurl%3Dhttps3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Felliott\_fudge%2Fstatus%2F1239287438759124993image%3D Despite the threat of the virus however, party supporters were still [out and about](https://www.voanews.com/europe/green-wave-french-municipal-elections?ref=karlsnotes.com), giving campaign flyers to market-goers around France, a few days before the election on 15th March. In a space of a few days, the situation in France and Europe changed dramatically. In the state of Bavaria in Germany, where local elections are also taking place, the campaigns have urged their supporters to send their ballots by mail, while campaigns have mostly moved online. A local Bavarian branch of the SPD, the Social Democratic Party of Germany, has resorted to multiple Facebook Live streams to address questions from voters, before the 29 March run-off election for Mayor, while ramping up its use of Facebook ads to be able to reach supporters in light of the[ ‘stay-at-home’ policy](https://www.thelocal.de/20200319/bavaria-threatens-full-lockdown-if-residents-flout-coronavirus-restrictions?ref=karlsnotes.com) of the Bavarian Government. Whereas in the month of January and February, only two ads were boosted, March saw four different ads being promoted by [the page](https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active%5Fstatus=all&ad%5Ftype=all&country=DE&impression%5Fsearch%5Ffield=has%5Fimpressions%5Flifetime&view%5Fall%5Fpage%5Fid=120872824614152) of the local political party. ![](https://i2.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc943ea64752d1b48c4e95f_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F1cbc8f71-98b7-4e39-a064-6f32473b02d1_709x525.jpeg?w=640&ssl=1) At this point, COVID-19 has become the central issue of many political campaigns around the world, even if most of them have technically paused their campaigning. The best political campaigns are able to adapt according to public concerns, which is this case is obviously issues related to the coronavirus, such as health. In fact, we have seen political campaigns, such as the [Bernie Sanders campaign](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/488780-sanders-raises-over-2-million-for-coronavirus-relief-effort?ref=karlsnotes.com), completely shift their focus to push forward policies that were previously considered extreme or unthinkable, such as [Medicare For All](https://www.businessinsider.com/medicare-for-all-support-americans-robust-sanders-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-3?ref=karlsnotes.com) or [Universal Basic Income](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/andrew-yang-discusses-universal-basic-income-and-coronavirus.html?ref=karlsnotes.com). Despite this shift, campaigns will still have to find workarounds to one of the most basic and effective campaigning methods: the ability to directly meet and communicate with other humans. ### Deepfakes in an Indian election campaign URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/deepfakes-in-an-indian-election-campaign/ Last updated: 2021-01-18T09:27:51.000Z [VICE](https://www.vice.com/en%5Fin/article/jgedjb/the-first-use-of-deepfakes-in-indian-election-by-bjp?ref=karlsnotes.com) has recently reported that the president of India’s ruling party, the [Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya%5FJanata%5FParty?ref=karlsnotes.com), used deepfake technology to change the language of his speech in a political advertisement. In the original video he speaks Hindi, one of the main languages spoken in India, while in the other videos, his mouth is manipulated to speak English and Haryanvi, a Hindi dialect spoken by BJP supporters. Check out for yourselves the original and deep fake videos below: While this is not the first time that deepfakes have featured in political campaigns, it seems to be the first time that they have been used directly, as part of the strategy of a political party, to win an election. The videos were manipulated by a communications firm called ‘[The Ideaz Factory](http://theideazfactory.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com)’, which was engaged by the BJP to help it reach “different linguistic voter bases” through the use of deepfake technology. This specific video was distributed across 5,800 WhatsApp groups, reaching approximately 15 million people. Many of the current deepfake videos have been [basic faceswaps](https://www.politico.eu/article/spa-donald-trump-belgium-paris-climate-agreement-belgian-socialist-party-circulates-deep-fake-trump-video/?ref=karlsnotes.com), where the subject of the video has his or her face, or part of the face, swapped with a video of the same subject in a different time and place. This is the case in the video in the tweet below, produced for the Italian satirical show *Striscia la notizia.* The videocaused quite an outrage in Italy, due to the gesticulations of the supposedly former Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, as shown in the video.‍ > Questa sera a [#Striscia](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Striscia?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) un fuorionda esclusivo! > È lui o non è lui? Certo che non è lui >> [https://t.co/EHD0R8lVeG](https://t.co/EHD0R8lVeG?ref=karlsnotes.com) [pic.twitter.com/oR0AwYNlSi](https://t.co/oR0AwYNlSi?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Striscia la notizia (@Striscia) [September 23, 2019](https://twitter.com/Striscia/status/1176191956558462976?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) However, a more realistic version where only the lip movements are manipulated to match the audio, also exist, such as in the case of the videos by the president of the BJP above. The Ideaz Factory confirmed that a deepfake algorithm was trained with speeches of the president of the BJP, in order to translate audio sounds into basic mouth shapes. VICE claims that the firm hired a dubbing artist to impersonate the president of the BJP reading the script in English and Haryanvi, which were then superimposed on the new videos. The local BJP section confirmed that the use of deepfakes has made it possible for the party to scale the campaign to heights previously unattainable. The official in charge of social media and IT for the local BJP has [said](https://www.vice.com/en%5Fin/article/jgedjb/the-first-use-of-deepfakes-in-indian-election-by-bjp?ref=karlsnotes.com) that “the Haryanvi videos let us convincingly approach the target audience even if the candidate didn’t speak the language of the voter.” The tactic was so successful that the party has claimed that local housewives said that they were heartened to watch the politician speak in their language in the deepfake video. The emergence of deepfake technology, which could easily be applied by anyone with some money and an internet connection, has made political consultants wary of the repercussions of unauthorized doctored videos, which could potential alter the outcome of an election or even create violence and chaos. Watching videos of politicians saying something that was never said, will continue to erode public trust in democratic elections. Furthermore, distrust will only increase because once this technology enters the mass market, people will undoubtedly begin to question whether what they are seeing is actually true or not. Many think that the rapid increase in the realism of these deepfake videos is a tool that has to potential [to disrupt the 2020 US Presidential election in November.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/deepfakes-could-be-problem-for-the-2020-election.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) While the 2016 election was marred with accusations of ‘fake news’, deepfakes could pose of an even bigger threat to the oldest democracy in the world. It would be interesting to follow the development of deepfake technology in the US elections and in future elections in 2020 and beyond and how political parties will make use of them. Will they try to deceive people and paint opponents in bad light or will they copy the BJP above in trying to reach voters by changing the language? A short concise video describing how deepfakes could disrupt elections as we know them: ### UK Labour Leadership election: the online campaign URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/uk-labour-leadership-election-the-online-campaign/ Last updated: 2024-01-06T12:06:11.000Z Following a poor electoral result for the UK Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, its leader, announced his intention to resign from the position, which triggered a leadership election. There are currently 3 contestants running for leader of the Labour Party; Rebecca Long-Bailey, Lisa Nandy, and Keir Starmer. However, when the readings where taken, the leadership race included Emily Thornberry, who was eliminated from the race after failing to secure enough nominations. I still included her online following as registered on 11th February 2020 and refer to her as a candidate in this post. I thought it would be interesting to visually compare the online following of the candidates up to that day and highlight their use of ads across different platforms. Would love to compare the difference in the number of followers and likes in a few weeks or once the race is over, and then write an analysis on it, based on the result. *Readings were taken from the Twitter, Instagram and Facebook pages of the candidates on 11th February 2020 and numbers were rounded to the nearest hundred. The readings on the number of ads were taken from the Facebook Ads Library which tracks political ads on Instagram and Facebook. Twitter forbids political advertisements on its platform.* ![](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc942cd512add0d32039536_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F706388bb-2a67-4326-8d79-49968802dab6_1200x742.png?w=640&ssl=1) ![https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26b59e9d-2e8d-488b-a3bb-9726e87851f7_1200x742.png](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc942cda565d58063f89e63_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F26b59e9d-2e8d-488b-a3bb-9726e87851f7_1200x742.png?w=640&ssl=1) ![https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F36afc073-9a49-4d33-befb-b3421a646fe7_1200x742.png](https://i0.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc942ced58a00d6f85e7a01_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F36afc073-9a49-4d33-befb-b3421a646fe7_1200x742.png?w=640&ssl=1) Rebecca Long-Bailey announced her candidacy for leadership of the Labour Party on 6 January 2020. Website: [rebeccaforleader.org](https://rebeccaforleader.org/?ref=karlsnotes.com) ![RLB2020.png](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc942ceb7085d9760f521db_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Ffbc3a57e-03cd-4339-b232-3735e301a89c_200x79.png?w=640&ssl=1) - Ads on Instagram or Facebook from the date of the announcement until 11th February 2020: **25 ads** --- Lisa Nandy announced her candidacy for leadership of the Labour Party on 3 January 2020. Website: [lisanandy.org](https://lisanandy.org/?ref=karlsnotes.com) ![Lisa Nandy for leader logo.png](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc942ce38fe9eda7b955024_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F7e0fd843-cdff-4212-a44f-2f124d4f6e47_200x85.png?w=640&ssl=1) - Ads on Instagram or Facebook from the date of the announcement until 11th February 2020: **6 ads** --- Keir Starmer announced his candidacy for leadership of the Labour Party on 4 January 2020. Website: [keirstarmer.com](https://keirstarmer.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com) ![Keir Starmer leadership campaign 2020 logo.png](https://i0.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc942cec8d88e6a055862af_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F363f8a83-e7e9-4713-8706-f43cc5f00da8_200x73.png?w=640&ssl=1) - Ads on Instagram or Facebook from the date of the announcement until 11th February 2020: **31 ads** --- Emily Thornberry announced her candidacy for leadership of the Labour Party on 18 December 2019. Website: [emilyforlabour.com](https://emilyforlabour.com/?ref=karlsnotes.com) ![Emily Thornberry for Labour Leader logo.png](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc942ce5e628c428d30345e_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F25246c9c-c58b-4dbd-8caf-cf277624f6b0_200x144.png?w=640&ssl=1) - Ads on Instagram or Facebook from the date of the announcement: **229 ads** ### Irish political dynasties URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/irish-political-dynasties/ Last updated: 2021-01-18T09:27:34.000Z A few days before the Irish election, both [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/healy-rae-kerry-political-dynasty-irish-election/?ref=karlsnotes.com) and [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/02/meet-the-healy-raes-the-rural-irish-populists-who-have-never-lost-an-election?ref=karlsnotes.com) published an article on the [Healy-Raes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healy-Rae%5Ffamily?ref=karlsnotes.com), a local political dynasty in County Kerry, Ireland. At the time of writing, Michael Healy-Rae, one of the brothers running in the election, got elected on the first count with [16,695 votes](https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/michael-healy-rae-cements-his-place-as-kerrys-top-vote-getter-980735.html?ref=karlsnotes.com), while his brother Danny looks likely to retain his seat. This will be the sixth time in 23 years that Kerry elects a Healy-Rae, and it likely won’t be the last. #### But how do they manage to get elected, in a country with a traditional two-party system and without the backing of a political party? [Independent politicians in Ireland are not that rare](https://ecpr.eu/Filestore/PaperProposal/2d6b83fd-83dd-4953-ad01-d5bad5056d4d.pdf?ref=karlsnotes.com), in fact, the Irish parliament had 19 elected independent members back in 2016, including 2 Healy-Raes, the brothers Danny and Michael. Independent candidates have to work for thousands of votes to get elected and, without the help of a political party, it might be harder. Not for the Healy-Raes though, as their extensive canvassing network, their availability to local constituents and their formidable electoral campaigning, which mostly takes place door-to-door in Kerry, keeps getting them elected. The Healy-Raes use every chance and tool they get their hands on; from [addressing a crowd after mass](https://twitter.com/Jackie%5FHealyRae/status/1221369649784401921?s=19&ref=karlsnotes.com), to having trucks with billboards featuring political messages go around the County. > Old traditions never die [#VoteMichaelHealyRae](https://twitter.com/hashtag/VoteMichaelHealyRae?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) [#GE20](https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE20?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) [pic.twitter.com/ZPC5Yfmf4t](https://t.co/ZPC5Yfmf4t?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Jackie Healy-Rae (@Jackie\_HealyRae) [January 26, 2020](https://twitter.com/Jackie%5FHealyRae/status/1221401208335884294?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) The Healy-Raes also take advantage of the [Single Transferable Vote system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single%5Ftransferable%5Fvote?ref=karlsnotes.com) (STV), used in Irish elections. This allows voters to choose their candidates based on their preferences and mix the vote with candidates from different parties. Here, rankings make a lot of difference and the Kerry political family makes sure to spread its candidates across different areas of the County, maximizing its potential to attract votes. ![Image](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc942492ce3ef1f9493c6d6_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F41ce2d34-addc-4c1f-b91e-1e1f5a378eab_734x511.jpeg?w=640&ssl=1) Another interesting part of the Healy-Raes election campaign is the hyper-localisation, with an extensive local canvassing network forming the backbone of the dynasty. Door to door meetings and campaign leaflets focus on local issues which directly effect the people of Kerry, despite the Healy-Raes competing for a place in the national parliament. This hyper-localisation helps the Healy-Raes with their claim that they are the defenders of the rural folk and do not belong to the Dublin bubble and the metropolitan elite. *“The most effective way of getting votes is by meeting somebody, calling into their home and looking into their eye, and saying: ‘will you please vote for me” – Michael Healy-Rae* At the same time, however, the family have also made good use of social media in their campaigns. A video posted on 5th February on Twitter by Michael Healy-Rae and clearly aimed to garner attention, had more than 72 thousand views when the result of the his election was announced. > You never know what you'll come across when out canvassing!! 😂🤣 > Massive thanks to Alexa and Buddy for the hospitality & Tay ☕️💚 > > ✅VOTE NO.1 MICHAEL HEALY-RAE ✅[#GeneralElection2020](https://twitter.com/hashtag/GeneralElection2020?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) [#MichaelHealyRae](https://twitter.com/hashtag/MichaelHealyRae?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) [#VoteNO1](https://twitter.com/hashtag/VoteNO1?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) [#GE2020](https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE2020?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) [pic.twitter.com/C50HN1NaVB](https://t.co/C50HN1NaVB?ref=karlsnotes.com) > > — Michael Healy-Rae (@MHealyRae) [February 5, 2020](https://twitter.com/MHealyRae/status/1225132892554256385?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=karlsnotes.com) The Facebook pages of Michael and Danny Healy-Rae have more than 22 thousand likes combined. Not bad for a County that has a population of 147,707 people. The page belonging to [Michael Healy-Rae](https://www.facebook.com/mhealyrae) is filled with photos of the beautiful County Kerry landscape, raw footage from the campaign trail and memes, which sometimes do not even relate to the election, [such as this one](https://www.facebook.com/129505867514641/posts/860873817711172/?substory%5Findex=0). Interestingly enough, and probably goes to show the priority that Michael Healy-Rae gives to the ground campaign, [no ads](https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active%5Fstatus=all&ad%5Ftype=all&country=IE&impression%5Fsearch%5Ffield=has%5Fimpressions%5Flifetime&view%5Fall%5Fpage%5Fid=129505867514641) were created by his Facebook page during the 2020 campaign. That of Danny Healy Rae, however, pushed forward [18 different ads](https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active%5Fstatus=all&ad%5Ftype=all&country=IE&impression%5Fsearch%5Ffield=has%5Fimpressions%5Flifetime&view%5Fall%5Fpage%5Fid=1124870327536556), with €917 spent over a period of 11 months, and €508 of them spent in the last seven days of the campaign. Following Michael Healy-Rae’s election to parliament, in a period of 12 hours, a thank you video message quickly got more than 1,100 likes, 75 shares and 11 thousand views, proving that his online campaign has been as formidable as his ground game. Different methods, different strategies, but in the end both Healy-Raes are expected to get elected to the Irish Parliament once again in 2020. ### Ireland goes to vote today URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/ireland-goes-to-vote-today/ Last updated: 2021-01-17T13:49:37.000Z [**Can Sinn Féin be in government?**](https://www.politico.eu/article/why-sinn-fein-is-surging-in-the-irish-election/?ref=karlsnotes.com): Sinn Fein has moved from political pariah to potentially winning the greatest share of the votes in the Irish election, according to latest polls. While the party cannot achieve a majority of TD’s (MP’s), due to running 42 candidates only, out of the 80 needed to achieve a majority, Sinn Fein has been riding a wave of anger on strained public services, the shortage of housing in the country, as well as finding greater support for its call towards Irish unity in the face of Brexit. ![](https://i0.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc9420a89831cc0b932884c_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F29bf6441-05d7-471a-b0dc-6e23868b6c78_620x330.png?w=640&ssl=1) [**How do you get people to talk about you?**](https://marketing.ie/fine-gael-most-visible-political-party-on-twitter/?ref=karlsnotes.com): Sprout Social’s Gerard Murnaghan, might have given the best explanation of how should social media posts should be structured to achieve maximum effect in a political campaign. In his words, they should be “walking the fine line of being engaging and entertaining, without being controversial or overly familiar”. It seems that governing party, Fine Gael, did not get the memo, though, as in the first weeks of the campaign they shared a [video](https://www.independent.ie/videos/irish-news/fine-gael-removes-campaign-video-depicting-fianna-fail-tds-searching-dublin-city-for-policies-38872543.html?ref=karlsnotes.com) Fianna Fáil TD’s running around Dublin frantically looking for policies. The video got attention, but the wrong kind, as the party seemed negative by deciding to attack Fianna Fáil this way. This did get people talking though; Fine Gael was the most talked about party on twitter in the first week of the campaign, garnering 30,000 mentions. While Irish citizens still expect politicians to canvass door to door, social media has increasingly been used to access new and younger audiences and engage more people. [**Things to look out for in an online campaign:**](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/five-things-to-look-out-for-in-political-party-social-media-campaigns-1.4148105?ref=karlsnotes.com) The Irish Times reports that the dark days of January and the beginning of February made it harder for parties to rely on the traditional posters and billboards. Social media has been more effective in reaching people. The four of the five things we can expect to find in online campaigns, according to the article by Liz Carolan, are: 1) virality – which I believe is the most important marker of any social media campaign, as this reduces costs in reaching wider audiences. 2) Paid advertising – This tactic is questionable, as according to the article, studies have shown that an audience reached through these paid ads tends to further entrench its beliefs, rather than change its views. However, this hypothesis has only been tested on political systems with two main parties such as the US and the UK. It would be interesting to have a study on how paid ads play out in systems which use Single Transferable Voting such as Ireland, where second and third place votes make a lot of difference. 3) and 4) The use of deception techniques – from trying to encourage a certain section of society to not show up to vote, to ‘[Astroturf](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing?ref=karlsnotes.com)’ campaigns, to the use of tools such as photoshop or Deep Fakes to mislead the electorate. This is where the infamous tactic of ‘shitposting’ fits in; online campaigns pushing forward ironic memes, often of poor quality, which grab the attention of the audience and most of the time end up being re-shared. ### Kiwis to vote in September 2020 URL: https://www.karlsnotes.com/kiwis-to-vote-in-september-2020/ Last updated: 2024-01-06T12:05:05.000Z Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the Labour Party, Jacinda Ardern, has recently announced that the country will be holding general elections on 19th September 2020. [This article](https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/23-01-2020/lets-do-this-again-whats-on-the-whiteboard-for-jacinda-ardern-and-labour/?ref=karlsnotes.com) gives a pretty good overview on what to expect from the Labour Party’s electoral campaign from strategy to advertising. Ardern and her oratory skills might be the Party’s best weapons in the election, but they have to challenge the assumption that they have not delivered on their promises. **Fake news alert!** Realising the threat posed by misinformation, Ardern said that she her party will avoid [“negative fake news style” campaigns](https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/118980480/jacinda-ardern-opens-election-year-warning-of-misinformation-will-sign-labour-up-to-facebook-transparency-tool?ref=karlsnotes.com) and that she is [“re-committing to a relentlessly positive election campaign in 2020 that will see the party voluntarily sign up to Facebook’s new advertising transparency rules and have its major election policy costings independently verified.”](https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/23-01-2020/lets-do-this-again-whats-on-the-whiteboard-for-jacinda-ardern-and-labour/?ref=karlsnotes.com) The National party is still considering using Facebook’s ad tool, but it seems that it has already starting making use of social media to share memes such as this one: ![](https://i1.wp.com/uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f9dc8a1a036811f1b6788fb/5fc9419f89831c147c3285dc_https%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fc9c04ff3-19c0-4d1c-b684-84ec40f904a9_1882x2827.jpeg?w=640&ssl=1) [**The National party might go after the issues of identity politics and ‘law and order’ in the coming election.**](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/new-zealand-voters-must-prepare-for-an-ugly-culture-war-this-election?ref=karlsnotes.com) The party might have to resort to promote these issues if it wants to differentiate itself from the Labour Party. Should the latter fail to push forward tax hikes or other controversial reforms, which could be used by the Nats to scare people off Labour, the National party might resort to identity politics to win over votes from conservative-leaning Labour voters. [**Will Topham Guerin get a hat-trick?**](https://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/editorial/bracing-facebook-face?ref=karlsnotes.com)Sean Topham and Ben Guerin masterminded the election of Scott Morrison in Australia and that of Boris Johnson in the UK. Will they be responsible for the National party’s digital campaign strategy this year? Can they make it three wins in a little over a year? The pair will surely be comfortable playing at home this time, not to mention that their knowledge on the Facebook Ad Library Tool, which they used in the UK, could come in handy should they work for the National party’s electoral campaign. [**Can ‘New Zealand First’ be the kingmaker once again?**](https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jan/29/this-election-is-do-or-die-for-nz-first-and-the-fight-could-get-dirty?ref=karlsnotes.com) NZ First has been instrumental in stopping some of the most flaunted reforms of its coalition partner. NZ First’s politics has hampered the Labour Party’s agenda but also helped it in areas where the latter is weak. The party is currently polling under the required 5% to enter Parliament, but an election campaign which focuses on ‘political correctness’, might just bring conservative voters back to the party. [**Anna Rawhiti-Connell argues that the effect of social media on swaying voters is overrated.**](https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/01/30/1008814/anna-rawhiti-connell-stop-giving-social-media-so-much-credit?ref=karlsnotes.com)She says that “social media isn’t a magical microcosm that reflects the broader electorate” and that she is “not prepared to accept that unproven snake oil tactics will somehow manipulate the vast majority of New Zealand voters”. Which is partly true, however Rawhiti-Connell misses the point of a political social media campaign. These type of campaigns do not target the vast majority of the electorate. The idea is to try and influence those sitting on the fence, that could, with a little nudge, end up voting for your party. Some of the social media campaigns we have seen lately do not even make a direct call to action for voters to vote for a specific party. I fail to see how ‘shitposting strategies’, could be used to convert the vast majority of the electorate.